"15% land auction premium rate red line, the matter of competing for the land king will become history. After controlling the price of' bread' for so long, it is finally necessary to fully control the price of' flour'. " Zhang Hong, who has worked in the real estate industry for many years, lamented.

On August 29th, 20021year, the announcement of the centralized transfer of the second batch of residential land in 20021year issued by Shenzhen announced that the upper limit of the land premium rate was uniformly adjusted from 45% to 15%, and the number will be shaken when the upper limit of the premium rate is reached.

Previously, on August 26th, Guangzhou Gongx * * Resource Trading Center also announced that 48 cases of residential land use rights would be transferred centrally, and the highest premium rate of listed land price would not exceed 15%, and the premium rate of Jiangtai Road plot in Haizhu with the highest land price would be limited to 9%. On the same day, the announcement on the centralized transfer of the second batch of residential land issued by Hangzhou also made it clear that the upper limit of the premium rate of general plots was adjusted to 15%, and the upper limit of the premium rate of "competitive quality" pilot plots was adjusted from 10% to 5%.

It is reported that Tianjin, Qingdao, Chengdu, Hefei and other places have also released the details of the second batch of centralized land supply, and a new round of land supply system is taking shape, and the entire land market will usher in a new reshuffle.

It is revealed that the Ministry of Natural Resources held a closed-door meeting in August, 20021year to clarify the adjustment of land transfer policies in the second batch of core cities, and stipulated that the premium rate of a single residential land should not exceed 15%, and the premium rate should not be adjusted by raising the starting price.

/kloc-After the red line of 0/5% premium rate, will the house price drop? Where will land finance go?

Tupai past events and crazy premium

1At the end of 987, the first land auction in China was held in Shenzhen. This is the first time that the mainland has paid for the transfer of the right to use state-owned land by public auction, which is also the beginning of the local auction in China and the marketization of real estate in China for more than 30 years.

Many years later, Wang Shi, a famous real estate developer, commented on this auction at the end of 1987 in his autobiography: the most basic cornerstone of China's real estate development was thus laid. This hammer broke the history of China's land use system and directly contributed to the revision of the Constitution, which can be called the "one beat" of China real estate.

It is worth noting that the object of comprehensive reference at that time was Hong Kong.

In the previous 19861February, a report entitled "Investigation Report on Shenzhen Real Estate Reform in Hong Kong" was sent to the desk of Shenzhen leaders.

This report gives a comprehensive introduction to the land auction system in Hong Kong. The report reads: "The Hong Kong government has returned all the land in Hong Kong to the government, adopted a high land price policy on the basis of comprehensive planning and initial development, and obtained huge income for the Hong Kong government through policies and public auctions. By supplying and auctioning planned land, the Hong Kong government has effectively controlled the construction of the whole city, controlled the scale of infrastructure, and stimulated and promoted the development of finance, stock market and Hong Kong's overall economy. "

Also in 1986, the Law of the People's Republic of China on Land Management was promulgated, and the State Bureau of Land Management was formally established in August of that year. With regard to the paid transfer of land use rights, the State Bureau of Land Management officially submitted a pilot report to the State Council in 1987 1 1, and announced pilot cities including Shenzhen, Shanghai, Tianjin, Guangzhou and Xiamen.

The first to implement the policy was Shenzhen, the special economic zone. Before the first auction, Shenzhen had already observed and been familiar with the land auction in Hong Kong. At that time, the plot numbered H409-4 to be auctioned was close to Shenzhen Reservoir, with an area of 8,588 square meters. It was planned as a residential land with a service life of 50 years.

At the first auction site, in addition to the representatives of 44 bidding enterprises, there are mayors from 17 cities across the country.

The whole auction process lasted 17 minutes, and the first auction in Shenzhen was sold at a total price exceeding the reserve price of 3 million yuan and 5.25 million yuan, with an average land price of 6 1 1 yuan/square meter.

Since then, the local pat mode has been rapidly popularized throughout the country. After that, the phenomenon of high premium rate of local auction market in many cities in China is not uncommon. In 20 10, the premium rate of Hefei E 1002 plot was as high as 325%. In 20 16, after 56 rounds of quotation, the premium rate of Hangzhou Xiaoshan No.23 plot reached 323%; The premium rate of plot 25 reached 325%.

Until 202 1 year, high premium plots are still common. In April, 20021year, Foshan, Guangdong Province, after a fierce battle11round, China Resources Land finally won the Chencun plot with a total price of 6.45 billion yuan and a premium rate of 106%.

Flour and bread

In the era of large-scale capital construction in full swing, the local auction policy has benefited China, which is developing at a high speed. After more than 30 years, land revenue has become the main source of construction funds for many cities.

In 2020, the revenue from the transfer of state-owned land use rights nationwide was 8.4 trillion yuan, up by 15.9% year-on-year. In that year, the number of cities with land sales revenue exceeding 1000 billion reached 14. Many of these cities are more dependent on land sales revenue than 100%. In 20 19, the land sales revenue of the 50 most important cities in China reached 4. 16 trillion yuan, which was 120% of the tax revenue, and the financial dependence of 12 cities exceeded 100%. Land revenue is an important financial pillar of local governments.

Liu Shouying, dean of the School of Economics of Renmin University of China, once told the media that the rapidly expanding land finance helped the government accumulate original capital at an unprecedented speed. At the same time, the income from land sales supported the infrastructure construction of hundreds of cities in China, and strongly promoted the economic development, urbanization and industrialization of China.

In recent years, Hangzhou, a new first-tier city highly praised for its urban construction, has a land sales income of 257.4 billion in 2020, and its financial dependence on land is as high as 122.96%. In June 2020 alone, the average premium rate of residential land in Hangzhou was as high as 2 1.37%.

However, the price of flour often determines the pricing of bread.

For example, in 20 14, Longguang Real Estate took a plot of land in Longhua, Shenzhen at a floor price of 25,000 yuan/square meter, which was much higher than the surrounding house price at that time. Since then, China Merchants, OCT, Jinmao and other developers have also entered Longhua, and the floor price of the land taken is mostly much higher than the surrounding houses at that time. Since then, Longhua house prices have continued to rise.

Until 202 1 year, high premium land is still a "shot in the arm" in many urban real estate markets.

On October 20 16 10, Foshan began to implement the price limit of the land auction in the restricted area. However, in April 2020, Foshan began to cancel the price limit of local auctions on a large scale.

In 2020, Foshan sold 1 10 business land, with a revenue of * * * RMB124.383 billion, a year-on-year increase of 70.0 1%.

According to statistics, in 20021year1March, Foshan signed a total of 32 1.35 million square meters of commercial housing, up 94.8% year-on-year, and the cumulative number of online signing sets reached 28,660, up 93% year-on-year. The total turnover in the first quarter reached 56.355 billion yuan, a record high in the past five years.

The end of land finance?

Rising house prices and financial dependence on land seem to be the time to solve them.

It is revealed that the Ministry of Natural Resources held a closed-door meeting in August, 20021year, explicitly demanding that the land transfer policy of the second batch of core cities be adjusted, stipulating that the premium rate of a single residential land should not exceed 15%, and the premium rate should not be adjusted by raising the starting price.

Yan Yuejin, chief researcher of Yiju Research Institute, told China Newsweek that the relevant policies of Shenzhen and other cities further reflected that the real estate price limit policy continued to be strict. In the past, many cities in China had various price limit policies, but cities such as Shenzhen obviously did not meet the existing price limit policies, and further lowered the price limit line on the existing basis, with the aim of further promoting price stability.

Many analysts said that in addition to curbing the excessive rise in housing prices, the land premium rate of 15% is also forcing local governments to gradually get rid of their heavy dependence on land finance.

Li Yujia, chief analyst of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Institute, told China Newsweek that for many years, many cities in China have expanded their urban boundaries by building new houses, and this process has come to an end. In many cities, the scale of construction land will be controlled after the implementation of land and space planning. "In this case, it is unsustainable for urban development to sell houses by adding low-cost land."

As early as 20 18, Yang Baojun, then president of China Urban Planning and Design Institute, said that the rapid urban expansion was an "abnormal state", the "climax" of China's large-scale urban expansion had passed, and the future urban renewal would be the "normal state".

Liu Shouying also told the media that with the decline of urbanization speed and the continuous exposure of many potential problems of the "land for development" model, the function of land as an engine of economic growth will no longer continue, and the new round of land management system should be in line with the transformation of China's economic development stage.

In June, 20021,the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Natural Resources, the State Administration of Taxation and the People's Bank of China jointly issued a notice to transfer all four government non-tax revenues, including the income from the transfer of state-owned land use rights, which were collected by the natural resources department to the tax department for collection.

This is another heavy news related to land finance this year, besides the red line of premium rate set by land auction. The end of land finance may have arrived.