Head space for stability, do not hesitate to slow down.
In the first half of 20 19, the overall growth rate of the real estate industry slowed down significantly compared with 20 18 under the guidance of the regulation policy of "living in a certain place and not speculating in the city".
According to the data released by Kerry Research Center, from June to June, the cumulative equity sales scale of TOP 100 real estate enterprises was nearly 3.9 trillion yuan, a slight increase of 4% year-on-year, which was basically the same as the cumulative performance growth rate in April and May.
On the whole, affected by the tightening of policy regulation in some cities in May, the market fell significantly, which made the "Xiaoyangchun" market cool down significantly since the first quarter. However, near the half-year performance target sprint, in June, housing enterprises actively increased their marketing and promotion efforts, and the monthly transaction performance increased by over 23% from the previous month.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, analyzed that the reasons for the downward adjustment of the property market in the first half of the year include: intensive release of continuously tightened regulatory policies, upward price in some areas, and reduction of cost-effective housing, which affected the enthusiasm of buyers to enter the market.
In the first half of 20 19, the threshold of equity amount of TOP20 housing enterprises was 48.94 billion yuan, slightly lower than the same period last year. However, the threshold of other echelon housing enterprises has improved. The threshold of equity amount of TOP50 real estate enterprises is 210.78 billion yuan, with the highest increase of 6%. The threshold of the equity amount of the top 30 real estate enterprises and 100 real estate enterprises is 35.03 billion yuan and 8.55 billion yuan respectively, and the threshold increase is 2.8% and 5% respectively.
The data analysis released by Han Yizhiku, another data organization, is similar to the above-mentioned institutions. In the first half of the year, although the threshold of each echelon in the industry continued to increase, the growth rate dropped significantly compared with the same period of last year. From the perspective of various echelons, the decline in the growth rate of the TOP20 threshold is the most obvious. Overall, the threshold of the top 100 enterprises is still improving, but with the weakening of market enthusiasm in 20 19, the growth rate of the threshold of each echelon began to slow down.
An industry insider said that with the pressure of sales in the second half of the year, the speed of raising the threshold in 20 19 will still decline.
The list released by Kerry shows that Country Garden, Vanke and Evergrande are still among the top three in the industry. Among them, Country Garden achieved sales of 392 billion yuan in the first half of the year, ranking first, Vanke ranked second with 334 billion yuan and Evergrande ranked third with 294.54 billion yuan. Judging from the data changes, after a year of regulation and the adjustment of the company's own sales rhythm, the pace of Country Garden and Evergrande has obviously slowed down. Compared with the same period last year, it has decreased by tens of billions of yuan. The sales growth rate of Vanke 20 19 in the first half of the year was 9.94%, which maintained a rare positive growth, but it was still lower than the average level of the top 100 real estate enterprises.
According to industry insiders, the current benchmark housing enterprises no longer pursue the model of high leverage and high growth, but focus on the main business and move towards a stable and high-quality growth model. For example, after Vanke put forward "convergence, focus, consolidation and upgrading the basic disk", it began to cut branches and leaves, and each business line defined its own basic disk. This strategy enables enterprises to maintain stable performance in the current market downturn. In fact, more and more real estate enterprises began to follow Vanke's example, adopting the way of shrinking their tentacles, being more cautious about unprofitable diversified businesses, and even at the expense of divesting ordinary businesses to strengthen the main real estate business.
Zhang Huadong, chief analyst of Han Yizhiku, analyzed that industry changes should first be analyzed from the perspective of policy regulation. The management hopes that the real estate will fluctuate within a range instead of rising continuously, and the complexity of the policy is getting higher and higher. Now some cities with poor real estate development are also introducing some restrictive policies, indicating that the policy hopes to fix real estate in a stable position.
Billion housing enterprises are expected to expand by about 10.
In the first half of 20 19, the scale differentiation among enterprises in TOP 100 echelon continued, and the industry competition intensified. Among them, the concentration of the equity amount of TOP3 housing enterprises reached 10.5%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, and leading housing enterprises continued to maintain steady and high-quality development. TOP4- 10, TOP 1 1-20, TOP2 1-30. Compared with last year, the concentration of equity amount of real estate enterprises in each echelon has also improved to a certain extent, the market share has steadily increased, and the competitive advantage of large real estate enterprises has further deepened. However, with the decline of transactions in most cities, the difficulty of sales has increased, and the competitive advantage of housing enterprises after the top 50 is no longer obvious, and the concentration of equity amount has declined.
As for the housing enterprises that had previously proposed the performance target of 20 19, as of the end of June, the target completion was still good, and 32 of the 36 housing enterprises had a target completion rate of over 40%. Baolong, China Shipping, Zhong Jun, Yuexiu, Zheng Rong, Jinke, Jinmao, Binjiang, Agile and other real estate enterprises were optimistic about their performance completion in the first half of the year, with the target completion rate exceeding 50%.
On the whole, the target of housing enterprises 20 19 is relatively cautious, and the average target growth rate is only about 20%. At the same time, the overall expected value of goods in 20 19 will be reduced to about 60%, and the achievement of performance targets depends more on the growth of supply. Ke Rui Research Center predicts that under the background of slowing industry growth, there is still some pressure on some housing enterprises to achieve their annual performance targets, and they still need to accelerate the push of goods into the market in the second half of the year.
It is worth noting that in the first half of the year, there were 12 real estate enterprises with contracted sales exceeding 654.38+00 billion yuan, an increase of 3 compared with the same period last year. There are 37 housing enterprises with 20-50 billion yuan in each ladder. According to the situation in previous years, the real estate enterprises with contract sales exceeding 40 billion yuan in the first half of the year are all strong competitors who hit 100 billion yuan that year, while there are 40 real estate enterprises with contract sales exceeding 40 billion yuan in the first half of the year, which also means that this year's 100 billion real estate enterprises are expected to expand to 35-40 on the basis of 2065438+30 in 2008, and the sales scale of newly established 100 billion real estate enterprises is also expected to be further improved.
The industry head effect will become increasingly obvious.
In the second half of 20 19, the overall real estate policy will remain stable. Among them, house prices are still an untouchable red line, and the regulation policies of hot cities still need to be implemented tightly, and the possibility of overweight regulation is not ruled out. Housing enterprises should not have overly optimistic expectations for policy relaxation.
Ke Rui Research Center predicts that June will be the key node for housing enterprises to sprint the semi-annual results, and most of the previous backlog of market demand will be released. At the same time, under the expectation of normalization, the growth rate of performance may still slow down. It is expected that the overall scale of housing enterprises will enter a steady growth in the second half of the year, and the growth rate is expected to slow down to around 20%. There is still some pressure on housing enterprises to complete the annual sales target. It is expected that enterprises need to focus on pushing goods or reducing pre-sale prices in the second half of the year to achieve the annual performance target.
From the perspective of the city, the market continued to fluctuate in the second half of the year, the frequency accelerated, but the volatility narrowed. The market trend will not climb all the way, nor will it fall across the board. The differentiation between cities will intensify, cities with different energy levels will continue to differentiate, and the momentum of first-and second-tier recovery is expected to be maintained; Weak second-tier and third-and fourth-tier cities will still face greater adjustment pressure.
Zhang Huadong analyzed that most enterprises have achieved more than half of their sales targets in the first half of the year. The annual sales growth rate is guaranteed. After that, it is difficult to say that there is a loose policy, and the overall forecast is still cautious. It is expected that the annual growth rate will converge, but it will not be too low. It is expected that the investment data will be a little lower than last year. The annual sales may increase by more than 3 points, mainly due to the increase in average price and negative growth in area.
An insider believes that 20 19 will be a "small year" for real estate market sales. In the second half of the year, the scale growth of the top 100 housing enterprises will remain stable, and the probability of rapid growth is not great.
Another expert pointed out that in the long run, local governments will continue to implement policies according to the actual market conditions, the real estate market will be in a stable and healthy development state for a long time, and housing enterprises will be more cautious in strategic layout. Leading housing enterprises will maintain a steady and high-quality development trend, and the head effect is becoming increasingly obvious. At the same time, since 20 18, the strategies of most large-scale housing enterprises have tended to focus on the main business from diversification. In the future, the large-scale competition among real estate enterprises will continue to deepen and the industry concentration will be further improved. It is estimated that the concentration of the top 30 housing enterprises will increase to about 48%, and the market share of each echelon will tend to be stable and increase. At the same time, it should be noted that based on the analysis of 42 real estate enterprises that released sales targets, nearly 60% of real estate enterprises failed to complete half of their sales targets in the middle of the year. Faced with the real estate environment in the second half of the year, coupled with the tightening of financing channels, the arrival of the peak period of debt repayment, and the fact that there are still variables in the market in the second half of the year, there is still pressure on housing enterprises to complete their sales targets.