Under the background of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States at the end of last year and the freezing rain and snow disaster at the beginning of this year, can the economic train "China" continue to move forward steadily and quickly after the earthquake?
The "troika" power will not decrease, and the earthquake will not change the economic fundamentals.
A bottle of Wahaha mineral water 1 yuan, a bag of master kong sparerib noodles 1.7 yuan. ...
This is the commodity price list that the reporter recently saw in Liujiang Supermarket, Bajiao, Deyang City, Sichuan Province, the hardest hit area by the earthquake. "Our supply is sufficient, and the prices of goods before and after the earthquake are the same." The sales staff of Bajiao Liujiang Supermarket told the reporter.
Bajiao Liujiang supermarket is a microcosm. At present, the commodity supply in the whole earthquake-stricken area is sufficient and the price is stable, and the daily business of ordinary people has not been greatly affected.
"Although this earthquake is large in scale, its impact on the national economy will not be great," said Kang Jia, an economist and director of the Institute of Fiscal Science of the Ministry of Finance.
Information from authoritative departments and research institutions such as the National Development and Reform Commission and the Central Bank shows that although the Wenchuan earthquake seriously damaged the economy of the disaster-stricken areas and disrupted the normal production and living order in the disaster-stricken areas, the total economic output of Sichuan Province accounts for about 4% of the country, especially in mountainous areas. This disaster will not change the fundamentals of China's macroeconomic development. After the resumption of production and post-disaster reconstruction in the disaster area, China's macroeconomic operation is expected to resist short-term shocks and maintain a steady and rapid development momentum.
Investment, export and consumption, as the "troika" to stimulate economic growth, will not lose their internal motivation, and the earthquake will not change the fundamentals of economic development. Regarding the current economic situation, the Macroeconomic Group of the Financial Research Institute of the People's Bank of China said in an interview with Xinhua News Agency on the 28 th that although the current export growth rate has slowed down, it will not drop sharply; Investment rebound is more likely, and post-disaster reconstruction will promote the rapid growth of fixed assets investment; Consumption will continue to grow rapidly.
In terms of investment, China's urban fixed assets investment increased by 25.7% year-on-year in the first four months, which is full of endogenous power. Robert Wetu, chief representative of the Asian Development Bank in China, said that once the reconstruction work is started, economic activities in the construction sector will increase significantly, which will promote economic development. Ji Ming, chief economist of CICC, also believes that domestic and international experience shows that post-disaster reconstruction will bring investment growth.
The export growth rate will not drop sharply. Sichuan is not an important export base of China, and it will not have a great impact on China's export trade. According to the analysis of the Macroeconomic Group of the Financial Research Institute of the Central Bank, China's position as a "world factory" in the international industrial division of labor has been formed, and the export growth rate will not drop significantly. More importantly, "China is a big economy, and the contribution of domestic demand to economic growth is decisive. The slowdown in external demand will not affect future economic growth. "
At present, the domestic market has sufficient supply and strong consumption capacity. According to the Macroeconomic Group of the Financial Research Institute of the Central Bank, the income of China residents will continue to grow rapidly at present, and the fiscal expenditure will further tilt towards the people's livelihood. With the gradual improvement of the social security system, the future consumption will increase rapidly. In addition, many experts believe that post-disaster reconstruction will also promote the consumption of domestic building materials and other products.
"Overall, this disaster will have a certain impact on the national economic aggregate, but the impact is limited." Mu Hong, deputy director of the Development and Reform Commission, particularly stressed on the 28th that "we will pay close attention to whether this disaster will have a longer-term impact on China's economy."
The potential negative impact of the new economic challenges brought by the earthquake can not be ignored.
Although the Wenchuan earthquake has not changed the fundamentals of the overall economy, it has brought new uncertainties to the economy, which may further aggravate the previous problems such as high inflationary pressure.
Because the Wenchuan earthquake has caused great damage to agricultural production, industrial production and transportation in the disaster-stricken areas, the reduction of supply may have an impact on prices in the short term and increase the pressure of rising prices. According to the forecast of the National Development and Reform Commission, the loss caused by this disaster will be several times that caused by the freezing rain and snow disaster at the beginning of this year.
Sichuan, as the hardest hit area of the earthquake, is a major province of grain production and pig raising in China. According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture, more than 60 million pigs are slaughtered in Sichuan every year, ranking first in the country. By the 20th, the data showed that the livestock in Sichuan, Gansu, Shaanxi and Chongqing died 1 5.23 million, of which live pigs died110,000.
The Macroeconomic Group of the Financial Research Institute of the Central Bank believes that the earthquake will increase inflationary pressure in the short term. Post-disaster reconstruction will increase the demand for building materials such as cement and steel, and may also push up the national raw material price level to some extent.
Despite the rising inflationary pressure, some domestic and foreign research institutions believe that the impact of earthquakes on inflation is limited. Hong Liang, chief economist of Goldman Sachs in China, believes that the impact of the earthquake on pork and grain production in Sichuan is limited. There are more than 400 million live pigs in China, and the price of pork has remained stable in recent years, which also reflects this.
According to the monitoring information of the Ministry of Agriculture on the 23rd, since the Wenchuan earthquake, the market of fresh agricultural products in China has been generally stable, with sufficient supply. The prices of vegetables and pork have declined, while the prices of eggs and fruits have slightly increased, and the trend is normal.
In addition, it is worth noting that in this earthquake, some power stations and transmission lines were damaged, which made normal transmission impossible. Therefore, the domestic energy supply may be reduced. At the same time, due to the serious damage to the power grid, reconstruction will be a long process. With the coming of the peak of electricity consumption in summer, the impact of the earthquake on Sichuan hydropower facilities and domestic energy demand can not be ignored.
The economic impact of the earthquake on tens of thousands of enterprises in the disaster area is also remarkable. According to the statistics of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC), as of May 2 1 day, the estimated losses of central enterprises in Sichuan alone exceeded 30 billion yuan in the earthquake. In addition, the earthquake will also cause a lot of bad debts to the original bank loans. Zhang Yun, vice president of China Agricultural Bank, said that it is estimated that the earthquake will bring 6 billion yuan of non-performing loans to China Agricultural Bank.
Adhere to "grasping with both hands" and go all out to maintain steady and rapid economic development.
At present, earthquake relief is still at a critical juncture, and maintaining the stable development of the national economy faces many challenges. To this end, the central government clearly put forward the idea of "persisting in grasping both hands", focusing on earthquake relief on the one hand and economic and social development on the other, unswervingly.
Wenchuan earthquake is the most destructive, widespread and difficult earthquake for disaster relief since the founding of New China. To fight against such a big natural disaster, only by maintaining stable economic development and effectively eliminating uncertain factors in economic operation can we have a reliable material foundation for earthquake relief and complete the arduous task of reform and development.
Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the central bank, said in the earthquake-stricken area on the 26th that we should pay close attention to the economic operation after the earthquake. According to the requirement of "grasping with both hands" put forward by the central government, we should not only meet the needs of earthquake relief, but also implement macro-control measures to prevent the excessive growth of prices and investment.
Due to the new challenges brought by the earthquake, the task of controlling the price increase and maintaining the steady economic growth is particularly arduous. "Since the beginning of this year, the domestic and international environment has been complicated, and the pressure of rising prices is still relatively high. In the context of the earthquake, this task is even more arduous. " The macroeconomic group of the financial research institute of the central bank believes that.
At present, we must earnestly strengthen agricultural production. Efforts to make agriculture have a good harvest throughout the year are of great significance to stabilizing prices and even the whole economic development. The summer harvest has arrived. According to the news from the Ministry of Agriculture, at present, the growth of wheat is gratifying and the harvest of summer grain is in sight. If there is no severe weather in the near future, China's summer grain yield is expected to reach the highest level in history, and the total output will increase in the fifth year. At present, it is necessary to organize wheat harvesting across regions and coordinate summer sowing. At the same time, do a good job in flood control and drought relief, especially in the disaster-stricken areas, and pay close attention to organizing seed harvesting to ensure pig production.
At present, the earthquake relief work has entered a new stage. "It is necessary to take the opportunity of arranging the lives of the affected people and post-disaster reconstruction to further increase the use of fiscal policies, promote a series of structural adjustments, and promote economic development." The macroeconomic group of the financial research institute of the central bank suggested.
At present, the central government has proposed to plan and implement the work of resuming production and post-disaster reconstruction as soon as possible, and raise funds for post-disaster reconstruction through multiple channels. The central government has allocated 25 billion yuan for earthquake relief and 70 billion yuan for post-disaster recovery and reconstruction.
The Fourth Chairman's Meeting of the 11th the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) held on the 22nd made arrangements to support the State Council's deployment of concentrated financial resources for earthquake relief, make corresponding adjustments to this year's budget expenditure structure, and make early consideration and arrangements for next year's recovery and reconstruction funds.
The National Development and Reform Commission, finance, finance, employment, urban and rural housing construction, transportation and other relevant departments have taken action. Development and Reform Commission and relevant departments have started post-disaster reconstruction planning; The Ministry of Finance of People's Republic of China (PRC) and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China urgently issued preferential tax policies for disaster areas; The banking industry is evaluating the credit demand of the affected enterprises and strengthening financial services in the disaster areas. ...
At present, earthquake relief is still at a critical juncture, and the task of ensuring the steady and rapid progress of China's economic trains is particularly arduous. It is necessary to unify thoughts and actions with the central government's decision-making and deployment, work with one heart and one mind, contribute to earthquake relief and economic and social development with practical actions, and strive to win the "double victory" of two tough battles. (Reporter Zhang Xudong, Jiang Guocheng, Han Jie)