In fact, the mortgage down payment policy was loosened once in advance in September last year. At that time, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC), the central bank, issued a notice stipulating that in cities that do not implement the "purchase restriction" measures, commercial personal housing loans will be issued to households that purchase ordinary housing for the first time, and the minimum down payment ratio will be adjusted to not less than 25%. Today's New Deal clearly downplayed the 25% down payment red line, allowing local governments to reduce the down payment by 5% according to actual needs and reduce the down payment ratio to 20%.
According to the Securities Times, since 1, the mortgage policy has undergone two major adjustments: the 330 New Deal and the 930 New Deal. Among them, the 330 New Deal mainly adjusted the down payment ratio of the second suite, and the down payment ratio was reduced from 60-70% to 40%. The 930 New Deal reduced the down payment ratio of a suite from 30% to 25%. This is equivalent to adjusting the down payment ratio of the first suite and the second suite at the same time. The minimum down payment ratio for the first suite was reduced to 20%, and that for the second suite was further reduced from 40% to 30%.
Yang Hongxu, vice president of Yiju Research Institute, said that the down payment was reduced to 20%, which was the lowest level in history before 2006. Yang Hongxu analyzed that this policy is the concrete implementation of the central government's policy of supporting self-occupation demand and dissolving real estate inventory, which helps to release the just-needed and improved demand.
Keyword 2: the highest in history-the national real estate inventory is 7 1 10,000 square meters.
The new property market policy officially released today seems to have the same tonality as the financial crisis in 2008. Behind it is the grim reality that local governments are facing high inventory in the property market.
According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of 20 15, the area of commercial housing for sale in China reached 7 10/00000 square meters, the highest in history. Among them, the third-and fourth-tier cities are facing more obvious inventory pressure because of their limited digestive capacity.
According to China Academy of Social Sciences, it will take 23 months to completely digest the inventory of the property market. According to the research of Minsheng Securities Research Institute, from the structural point of view, the inventory-to-sales ratio at the end of 20 15, 10.23 and 25.58 in first-,second-and third-tier cities is the most serious.
Different from the increase in the area for sale, the contribution rate of real estate investment to economic growth dropped to 0.079 percentage points in the whole year of 20 15, which became the lowest value in previous years.
The area of all residential commercial houses in the inventory of the most critical real estate development enterprises is as high as 55438+0.8 billion square meters, which does not include a large number of rural houses.
These huge inventories directly affect the economic growth data of China.
Keyword 3: destocking-central layout, local efforts
After years of rapid growth, the real estate market in China has stepped from the "incremental era" to the "stock era", and "destocking" has become the key word of this year's property market.
The decline in the growth rate of real estate investment has seriously dragged down China's economic growth. The central government has repeatedly called for' destocking' and proposed to resolve the real estate inventory. At the Central Economic Work Conference held in the fourth quarter of 20 15, resolving real estate inventory has been listed as one of the five major tasks of economic and social development. The meeting pointed out that "outdated restrictive measures should be abolished. It should be said that from the beginning of this policy, the implementation policies of the central government's "destocking" will be introduced one after another.
According to the data released by China Index Academy, the overall inventory of real estate in China is calculated according to the average sales speed in the past three years, and it will take five years to digest this inventory.
How to digest high inventory is not only a big problem for developers but also a headache for local governments.
According to Nanfang Daily, recently, Chongqing, Fujian, Hunan, Hainan and other places have intensively introduced destocking measures, and the "two sessions" held in many places will also take destocking as the top priority of real estate in 20 16. The industry believes that the recent policy adjustments in various places are consistent with the requirements of the central government to resolve the real estate inventory and promote the sustainable development of the real estate industry. The implementation of cities with separate plans is the mainstream of future policy relaxation, and more provinces will follow suit. It is expected that the real estate market will usher in a new round of policy easing in the first quarter.
65438+1October 18 Chongqing became the first city to introduce inventory removal measures in 20 16, and introduced various support measures in promoting the development of real estate enterprises, including taxation, finance, reorganization and merger. For example, the taxable gross profit margin of income tax pre-sale income of real estate enterprises is adjusted from 20% to 15%, and the withholding rate of value-added tax for non-ordinary residential, commercial and garage land is adjusted from 3.5% to 2%, and the withholding rate of value-added tax for ordinary residential land is implemented at 1%.
Since then, many places have followed the pace of Chongqing and successively introduced destocking measures. 19 the video conference on housing and urban-rural construction in Fujian province proposed that cities and counties should be encouraged to formulate policies according to the actual situation, and implement real estate destocking measures for specific buildings before the end of February 20 16 in accordance with the principles of "one city, one policy", "one county, one policy" and "one plate, one policy". For third-and fourth-tier cities with large inventory and long de-chemical cycle, land supply should be suspended.
On the 20th, the Hunan Provincial Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Construction mentioned that there was a great pressure on real estate destocking in Hunan. In some places, the inventory cycle (commercial housing sales cycle) reaches 2 to 3 years, and strong measures must be taken. Hunan Provincial Housing and Construction Department proposed that monetized resettlement is an effective means of destocking. 20 16 The monetized resettlement ratio of shed reform shall not be less than 50% in principle, and the funds shall be tilted for areas and projects with high resettlement ratio. Public rental housing will no longer be built from 20 17, and it will be completely solved through the rental market, and the government will give rent subsidies. In addition, it also puts forward measures to destock the rental market, support migrant workers to settle in cities, and give play to the effect of provident fund policy.
2 1, Ding Shijiang, director of the Housing and Urban-Rural Development Department of Hainan Province, revealed at the Hainan Conference on Housing and Urban-Rural Development that the sales speed is lower than the construction speed, and there is a great pressure on the destocking of commercial housing in Hainan. Hainan will take 10 measures to fully promote destocking and transformation development, gradually reduce the proportion of commercial housing development, increase the proportion of commercial real estate, and promote the transformation of real estate from a single product to a diversified product. At the same time, outdated restrictive measures will be abolished and a predictable environment will be created for industrial restructuring.
Zhu Zhenxin, a macro analyst of Minsheng Securities, pointed out that destocking is the top priority of supply-side reform, and stimulating reasonable demand for real estate is the top priority of destocking. After reducing the down payment of provident fund, it is logical to reduce the down payment of general loans, and the possibility of further reduction is not ruled out.
Keyword 4: decompression-the property market in third-and fourth-tier cities welcomes opportunities.
How big is the real estate inventory pressure? Taking Henan Province as an example, according to the data of Henan Provincial Bureau of Statistics, by the end of 20 15, the area of commercial housing for sale in Henan was 36,068,300 square meters. According to the statistics of the Housing and Construction Department of Henan Province, the inventory of commercial housing approved for pre-sale in this province has reached10010000 square meters, and the average sales cycle is 17 months. For the real estate industry, the sales cycle is within the normal range of 7 to 12 months, and there is great inventory pressure beyond 12 months.
Guotai Junan Real Estate Research Team said that the introduction of this policy is to further accelerate the destocking of non-restricted cities (restricted cities specifically refer to Beishangguangshen and Sanya), stabilize the investment end through the recovery of the sales end, and inject a shot in the arm into the current pessimistic property market. In 20 15, the growth rate of real estate development investment was only 1%, and the land purchase area and land transaction price decreased by 3 1.7% and 23.9% year-on-year, which was relatively low on the whole.
Zhang Hongwei, director of the same policy consulting and research department, said that by reducing the down payment ratio of the first suite, the threshold for buyers to enter the market can be lowered, the transaction volume of the property market, which is dominated by self-occupation, can be moderately activated, the market pressure of relatively large inventory in most third-and fourth-tier cities and more than half of second-tier cities can be alleviated, and the house price can be kept relatively stable.
The most powerful thing is not to reduce the down payment of the first suite to 20%, but to reduce the down payment of the second suite to 30% (40% to 70% in many cities and 30% in a few), which will activate the improvement demand and investment demand of second-tier cities, especially "strong second-tier cities". Among the second-tier cities, Suzhou, Hangzhou, Nanjing and Zhengzhou are the most optimistic about the property market, because these cities have strong population competitiveness and the property market inventory is not too much. In addition, the ordinary houses in the downtown area of Changsha, where the population is growing rapidly, are not optimistic.
In some places, while "relaxing restrictions on purchases", farmers are encouraged to buy houses by "relaxing household registration". Some cities in Guangxi, such as Beihai, Yulin and Nanning, have introduced new policies that allow residents to settle in cities by buying houses. Among the cities that can be found, the places where similar policies mentioned above are introduced are all over the north and south of China, with Hohhot in the north, Haikou in the south and Wuhan in the middle.
According to the statistics of CITIC Construction Investment Team, in 20 15 years, the transaction growth rate of key cities in the first, second and third tiers was 39%, 14% and 13% respectively. Since the second quarter, first-tier cities have maintained a positive trend of rising volume and price. Because the first-tier market often has a demonstration effect, the second-tier mainstream market has picked up, and the transmission of house prices to land prices has appeared in some cities such as Nanjing. This time, the capital leverage will be further increased.
Keyword 5: 20 16 is the house price rising or falling?
In the past five years, the core cities of China have experienced severe real estate market regulation. With the cancellation of purchase restrictions in most cities, the interest rate continues to fall, as well as the preferential loan policies in various places, as well as the supply-side reform and urbanization process, opportunities have emerged from the perspective of consumers.
Will the property market really "fall"? Some people think that developers have insufficient motivation to reduce prices.
Li Daxiao, director of the Securities Research Institute of Ying Da University, also believes that this is a favorable policy to support reasonable housing consumption, which has a positive impact on promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, stabilizing the real estate market and destocking, providing important support for real estate stocks, and is also of great significance to the stability of the stock market.
"In the next two or three years, the warm wind of real estate policy will not stop." Zhu Zhenxin, a macro analyst of Minsheng Securities, said that on the one hand, 6 billion potential stocks need to be de-capitalized, on the other hand, there is almost no risk of rising house prices as a whole, and there is much room for policy relaxation. The next step can wait: further adjust the taxes and fees in the transaction link (relax the collection standards and change the collection methods), adjust the housing standards, rent affordable housing for sale, and set up the National Housing Bank.
According to the reference of the property market, the property market in second-tier cities will increase. Since "the down payment for the first suite is reduced to 20%, and the down payment for the second suite is reduced to 30%", it is only implemented in non-restricted cities, and the five restricted cities in Beishangguangshen and Sanya cannot be implemented at present. Second-tier cities such as Hangzhou, Nanjing, Zhengzhou, Tianjin and Chongqing can implement it, which gives them the opportunity to make up for the rising house prices.
"In 20 16 years, house prices will increase steadily and slightly, and high inventory and bearish expectations limit the nationwide price increase momentum." Xia Dan, a senior researcher at the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications, believes that the rapid growth of commercial housing sales in 20 15 years is inseparable from the loose monetary environment and the continuous relaxation of real estate policies.
According to Tencent Finance
Zhejiang News+
At the Central Economic Work Conference, which closed on February 2 1, resolving real estate inventory was listed as one of the five major tasks for China's economic and social development in 20 16. This is unprecedented.
The meeting clearly pointed out that measures will be taken, including implementing the reform of the demand-side household registration system, accelerating the citizenization of migrant workers, and promoting farmers to buy houses; On the supply side, real estate developers are encouraged to appropriately reduce housing prices and promote mergers and acquisitions of real estate development enterprises. At the same time, it is obvious that "outdated restrictive measures" should be abolished.
How to understand these policies? What signals do they release and what impact will they have on the real estate market? In particular, what everyone is most concerned about is that the central government explicitly encourages the reduction of housing prices. "Will my house depreciate?"
Why did "destocking" rise to the national level?
This central economic work conference, with as many as 325 words, elaborated and took measures to destock real estate, and raised "destock" to the national level. Mainly because: At present, the overall real estate inventory level in China is relatively high, especially in the third-and fourth-tier cities, and the willingness of real estate enterprises to invest has declined, which has become the biggest risk that drags down China's economy.
According to the latest data from CICC, the average de-chemicalization time in first-tier cities is 8.8 months, that in second-tier cities is 1 1.2 months, and that in third-tier cities is 2 1.5 months. Therefore, resolving real estate inventory is not only a current practical problem, but also an important aspect of supply-side structural reform.
The central government encourages "lowering house prices". Will our house collapse?
The Central Economic Work Conference encourages developers to reduce prices, not trying to restrict developers from raising housing prices by administrative means, but to guide developers to have reasonable expectations for the future of the market.
Of course, not every city's real estate needs to be reduced. For example, housing prices in first-tier cities such as Beijing are unlikely to fall. The core purpose of this statement is to avoid the misjudgment of destocking by development enterprises and the fierce competition in the land market. In implementation, specific policies and measures will still be market-oriented means.
Of course, as the main body of the market, enterprises will also have their own considerations. For example, the price reduction of listed companies may lead to a decline in profits, and the price reduction of small developers may face bankruptcy, not to mention the price reduction may lead to group incidents. Therefore, if the price is reduced, the enterprise will make a decision according to its own situation.
The government should also consider implementing a comprehensive destocking plan. There is a high voice in the market: let the government, banks and tax bureaus join in, effectively reduce the tax burden of developers, and change the trend of the total cost of real estate development rising year by year.
At the same time, the first, improvement and investment demand will be released to the greatest extent. For example, mortgage down payment and interest rate reduction, we will continue to implement loose monetary policies such as RRR reduction and interest rate reduction, and implement preferential policies such as financial subsidies for house purchase and real estate tax reduction and exemption.
Is the purchase restriction in first-tier cities an "outdated restrictive measure"?
Considering the current supply and demand situation of first-tier cities, the purchase restriction of megacities in 20 16 years should not be liberalized. What's more, first-tier cities need to regulate the population size through policies such as restricting purchases and loans.
Therefore, "outdated restrictive measures" are to cancel unreasonable policies such as purchase restriction, loan restriction and price limit in some places where supply exceeds demand. However, from a national perspective, policies such as high interest rates and down payment for second and third suites may be adjusted or cancelled.
In general, destocking can't rely solely on the government, but also requires the cooperation of housing enterprises.
In the future, there will be no large-scale stimulus policy similar to 4 trillion yuan, and there will be no fierce super-destocking policy, so we can't take any chances. The current government has put more emphasis on consolidating the foundation and cultivating RMB, focusing on the long-term stability and development of the real estate market in China.
Farmers can settle in cities? System reform always takes three to five years.
At the meeting, it was proposed to implement the household registration system reform plan and allow non-household registration population such as agricultural transfer population to settle in the employment place. This policy attempts to offset the negative impact of the demographic inflection point on the real estate market, and use the demographic dividend to continue to support the development of the property market and release more housing demand.
According to statistics, about 30% to 40% of the housing demand in the third-and fourth-tier cities in China comes from the surrounding small towns and farmers. If the government can increase policy support in credit, taxation, homestead circulation (or pledge), it can indeed release a large number of new housing demand.
However, referring to the lessons of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, we should not excessively encourage farmers with weak ability to pay to buy houses, otherwise there may be difficulties in repayment and an increase in the rate of non-performing loans.
In the direction of deepening the reform of the housing system, the meeting put forward the main direction of "establishing a housing system with both purchase and rent as the main starting point to meet the housing needs of new citizens", which means that in the future, the inventory of commercial housing can be converted into affordable housing, farmers can be included in the housing security system, and the reform of provident fund and social security can be carried out.
For example, it includes breaking the urban-rural dual system, establishing policy-oriented housing banks, promoting the securitization of mortgage assets, allowing loans from different places, and implementing the securitization of provident fund mortgage assets.
Measures such as the citizenization of migrant workers are indeed a way to resolve the inventory of the property market, but this is a medium-and long-term policy, which requires a series of reforms such as the reform of the household registration system, and it will take at least two or three years to be effective.
Generally speaking, long-term and short-term destocking measures should be carried out simultaneously and in coordination.
Investing in buying a house is actually encouraged by the government. Will renting a house become a big market?
This meeting put forward the industry management idea of "encouraging house purchase and developing rental market", which is a huge and thorough change. In the past, "buying more houses" was always considered as investment and speculation, and it was the object of severe suppression by policies.
This change shows that the government recognizes that China's real estate market has entered the era of stock housing, that is, commercial housing is directly transformed into second-hand housing, forming a housing rental market.
However, at present, the domestic rental return rate is low, especially in third-and fourth-tier cities. Obviously, the government will not only rely on the expected guidance to develop the rental market, but also introduce practical policy incentives.
The focus of this policy is to reduce the cost of owning a house. Of course, due to the complexity of tax rate reform, it is difficult to introduce the reform of the real estate industry in the near future.
In particular, it should be reminded that developers, as the main body of the market, should have a basic understanding that destocking is by no means a government-led market, and it is unwise to take the opportunity to raise prices.