Looking back on 221, the overall macro-economy was in the post-epidemic recovery stage, but the marginal recovery momentum slowed down in the second half of the year, and the pressure gradually appeared. Influenced by cardinal utility last year, the economic growth rate showed a rhythm of "high before and low after". The cumulative GDP growth rate in the third quarter was 9.8%, and the GDP growth rate in a single quarter dropped, and Q3 dropped to 4.9%. On the demand side, on the one hand, domestic consumption is limited by repeated epidemics and slow growth of residents' income, and the recovery of consumption is weak, while the superimposed capacity of overseas demand recovery is limited, and the export performance is outstanding.
2. On the other hand, under the influence of the tightening of regulatory policies in real estate and other fields, the growth rate of investment in infrastructure and real estate has dropped significantly, and the growth rate of real estate development investment in October has dropped to -5.4%. On the supply side, this year, the price fluctuation of upstream resource products and the double control of energy consumption led to a sharp rise in PPI, and the growth rate of 13.5% in October reached a record high, which caused the fear of "quasi-stagflation" to intensify, and the profits of industrial enterprises were under pressure. Since April, PMI has tended to fall, and it has been under threshold for two consecutive months, and rebounded slightly in November. Looking forward to 222, except for the uncertainty brought by the new mutant virus, the overall supporting factors of the macro economy are still not strong. According to the forecast of the macro team in West China, the GDP growth rate in 222 will be around 4.5%, and it is estimated that the GDP growth rate in the first four quarters will be 3.8%, 4%, 5.1% and 4.9% respectively. _
3. Structurally, because the growth rate of median income of residents has slowed down, it is unlikely that consumption will improve significantly; In terms of investment, the growth rate of real estate development investment will reach a low point in the first quarter of next year, and the growth rate of real estate investment in the whole year will be around -2.4%. The new local government special debt funds in the second half of this year and some special debt quotas for next year are expected to be released in advance, which will support infrastructure investment; In addition, due to the slowdown in the growth rate of orders and corporate profits, it is expected that manufacturing investment will weaken marginally from the second quarter of next year. The annual growth rate of manufacturing investment is about 5.5%, supported by structural credit policies, and investment in carbon emission reduction-related industries and specialized new enterprises will become structural highlights; On the export side, it is expected that with the slowdown of overseas economic growth and the recovery of production capacity, some orders will face reflux pressure, and the export growth rate is expected to be around 7%. Under the downward pressure of the overall economy, the policy bottoming is expected to increase, and it is expected that structural monetary policy tools and fiscal policies will land in due course. Pay attention to the economic recovery under policy hedging. _
4.1.2. Credit environment: policy rectification and pressure relief
In the whole year, monetary policy has gradually returned to normalization compared with the credit expansion during the epidemic period, and at the same time, with the economic and demand pressure becoming more and more obvious in the second half of the year, "steady growth" and "risk prevention" have been highlighted. First of all, compared with last year's liquidity investment in the bottoming economy, this year's monetary policy continued the general tone of "stability-oriented, flexibility and moderation". In addition to protecting market liquidity through short-term adjustment and moderate loosening of reverse repurchase at the end of the month, the public market operation focused on the equal continuation of large MLF maturity as a whole, and the unexpected RRR cut in July was mainly for the rushing MLF, and the policy interest rate was not adjusted again, and the LPR quotation continued to be stable, with little fluctuation of funds and relatively stable central interest rate.