(A) the function of financial early warning system
The financial early warning system can monitor the potential risks in enterprise management activities in real time and give early warning to operators, including four subsystems: financial early warning consulting system, financial early warning decision-making system, financial early warning execution system and financial early warning supervision system. The functions of financial early warning system include:
(1) early warning function
When the key factors that may endanger the financial situation of the enterprise appear, the financial early warning system can issue an early warning in advance to remind the enterprise operators to take measures to reduce financial losses in advance.
(2) Corrective function. Prevent or control the occurrence and deterioration of the crisis. When there are signs of financial crisis, the early warning system can not only predict and forecast, but also find out the causes of financial deterioration in time, and by formulating effective measures, prevent further deterioration of financial situation and avoid serious financial crisis.
(3) Immune function. In order to avoid similar financial crisis, the whole process of occurrence, deterioration and improvement of similar financial crisis is stored in the system database through monitoring, controlling and handling the financial crisis of enterprises. When the symptoms similar to the financial crisis reappear, the operators can use the historical data of the financial early warning system to make corresponding decisions and improve management.
(B) the principles of building a financial early warning system
The construction of enterprise financial early warning system should follow the following principles:
(1) scientific principles. The methods and indicators of financial crisis early warning must be scientific. Methodology science is the premise, and index science is the scientific design of indicators. Financial early warning indicators should accurately reflect the internal relationship of each group of relevant financial data, reveal the law of financial operation, and truthfully reflect the potential crisis of enterprise management and financial activities.
(2) Systematic principle. The financial crisis early warning system considers the enterprise as a whole. The early warning of financial crisis requires not only the advanced index, but also the integrity and comprehensiveness of the object. All the factors of each crisis are fully considered, so that the indicators are not repeated or omitted, and the index system can fully and truly reflect the degree of crisis.
(3) the principle of predictability. The financial early warning system must have the function of predicting the future, that is, it should be able to analyze and predict the possible future situation of the enterprise according to the historical data in the business activities of the enterprise, rather than evaluating the past business performance and the performance of the entrusted management responsibility. Therefore, enterprises must pay attention to the difference between financial crisis early warning system and financial evaluation system when designing financial early warning indicators, and help enterprises to take effective measures to prevent potential crises through monitoring.
(4) Dynamic principle. It is a gradual process for enterprises to fall into financial crisis, usually from normal financial development to financial crisis. Therefore, the early warning of enterprise financial crisis must regard the business activities of enterprises as a dynamic process, and grasp the future development trend of enterprises on the basis of analyzing the past business conditions of enterprises. Dynamic analysis and early warning can also reflect the attitude of enterprise managers to the crisis and their ability to prevent it. From the perspective of early warning time span, the longer the early warning time, the more it can reflect the management level of enterprise operators. Dynamic is also reflected in the fact that the financial crisis early warning system can constantly revise and supplement the early warning content according to the development of market economy and the changes of enterprise crisis, thus ensuring the advanced nature of the early warning system.
(5) Intuition and practical principles. Early warning is a kind of prediction, that is, an enterprise can give an alarm in time before the operating and financial situation deteriorates or is in danger. Intuition requires that the enterprise financial crisis early warning system should reflect the potential risks of enterprise business activities very intuitively, so that users can easily understand and grasp them.
The key to building a financial early warning system is to choose appropriate financial early warning indicators. Only when the early warning indicators are well selected can the early warning system really play a role in predicting and controlling the crisis; Poor selection of early warning indicators makes the financial early warning system useless.
Second, the establishment of financial early warning system
The key to the establishment of financial early warning system is how to determine early warning indicators and judge warning lines. There are two ways to establish:
1. Single mode thinking. A single model predicts financial risks through the deterioration of a single financial ratio. The following ratios can be established:
Debt guarantee rate = cash flow/total debt
Return on assets = net income/total assets
Asset-liability ratio = total liabilities]] total assets
Capital safety rate = asset realization rate-asset-liability ratio (where: asset realization rate = asset realization amount ÷ asset book amount)
The good cash flow, net income and debt status of enterprises can show the long-term and stable development trend of enterprises, so we should pay special attention to the changing trend of the above ratios when tracking and checking. When these indicators reach the warning value set by the operator, the early warning system will issue a warning to attract the operator's attention. Enterprise's risk is a combination of various project risks, and the changing trend of different ratios will inevitably show the trend of enterprise risk, but a single model does not distinguish the role of different ratio factors as a whole, nor can it well reflect the positive and negative alternating changes of various ratios of enterprises. When one ratio gets better and the other ratio gets worse, it is difficult to make an accurate warning.
2. Comprehensive thinking mode. The idea of the comprehensive model is to use the total discriminant value generated by the weighted summary of various financial indicators to predict financial risks, that is, to establish a multivariate linear function model to comprehensively reflect enterprise risks.
z = 1.2x 1+ 1.4x 2+3.3x 3+0.6x 4+X5
Where: z- discriminant function value; XL- working capital/total assets; X2- retained earnings/total assets; X3- EBIT/total assets; X4- total market value of common shares and preferred shares/total book value of liabilities; X5— Sales revenue/total assets.
Based on five financial ratios, this model organically links the indicators (X 1, X4) reflecting the solvency of enterprises with the indicators (X2, X3) and indicators (X5) of operating capacity, and comprehensively analyzes and forecasts the risks of enterprises. It is generally believed that when the value of 7 is greater than 2.675, it indicates that the financial situation of the enterprise is good; When z is less than 1.8 1, it shows that the financial situation of the enterprise is excellent; Between 2.675- 1.8 1, it shows that the financial situation of the enterprise is unstable.
According to the comprehensive model, the enterprise is a complex, and there is a certain correlation between various financial indicators, which has different effects on the overall risk of the enterprise. This model gives enterprises a quantitative standard, and checks the financial status of enterprises from the overall perspective, which is conducive to the comparison of financial status in different periods. However, due to many differences in enterprise scale, industry and region, Z value is not horizontally comparable.
Three, the establishment of financial early warning system should be done.
1. Strengthen information management. The financial pre-spectrum system must be based on a large amount of information, which requires strong information management to provide comprehensive, accurate and timely information for the early warning system. It is necessary to establish an information management organization and equip it with necessary professionals. It is necessary to clarify the work contents and requirements of information collection, processing, storage and feedback, as well as the responsibilities of information professionals, and provide necessary technical support.
2. Coordinate the relationship between subsystems. The enterprise is an organic whole, and the financial early warning system should maintain a harmonious cooperative relationship with other subsystems. It is necessary to consider the data transmission of different subsystems and the different requirements of each subsystem for various data, realize enterprise data sharing, and make the relationship between subsystems more harmonious.
3. Improve the internal control system. Financial early warning system puts forward higher requirements for internal control system. A good internal control system should include a sound corporate governance structure, clear organizational responsibilities, proper transaction processing procedures, true information records and timely disclosure.
Four, the financial early warning system has the following functions:
① Information collection. Analyze and compare industrial policies, market competition, various financial and production information related to enterprise management, and judge whether to warn.
② Predict the crisis. Through the analysis of a large amount of information, when there are key factors that may endanger the financial situation of enterprises, the financial early warning system can issue an early warning in advance to remind operators to make preparations or take countermeasures as early as possible to avoid potential risks from turning into real losses, thus playing a preventive and preventive role.
③ Control the crisis. When there is a potential financial crisis, the financial early warning system can also find the root of the deterioration of the financial situation in time, so that operators can be targeted, prescribe the right medicine, and formulate effective measures to prevent further deterioration of the financial situation.
Five, the financial crisis early warning indicators must have three basic characteristics at the same time:
(1) must be highly sensitive, that is, once the crisis factor is born, it can be quickly reflected in the index value;
(2) Once the index value tends to deteriorate, it often means that a crisis may occur or will occur, that is, when the crisis first occurs, it should be a precursor index, not a result index when it has fallen into a serious crisis state.
(3) From the financial point of view, the most direct cause of the financial crisis is either the inefficient allocation of resources, or the improper response to competition and the weakening of functions, which leads to the disadvantage of enterprise groups in the competition and the low cash inflow ability in the future; Or the enterprise group blindly pursues the increase of sales amount, but ignores the concern about sales quality-the effective support degree, stability, reliability and time distribution structure of cash inflow, which leads to the enterprise group falling into the predicament of overload operation and insufficient cash payment ability. This requires that the financial crisis early warning indicators of enterprise groups should be grasped based on this basic point.
Extended reading
The establishment of financial risk early warning system requires the establishment of financial analysis index system and long-term financial early warning system. Enterprises should establish long-term financial early warning system as well as short-term financial early warning system. Among them, profitability, solvency, economic benefits and development potential are the most representative indicators. Profit is the ultimate goal of enterprise management and the premise of enterprise survival and development. In the long run, an enterprise can stay away from the financial crisis and must have good profitability, so that the enterprise's financing and debt repayment ability will be stronger.
Whether an enterprise can survive depends not entirely on whether it is profitable, but on whether it has enough cash to pay all kinds of expenses. The premise of early warning is that enterprises have profits. For a well-run enterprise, because its accounts receivable, accounts payable and inventory are generally stable, the net cash flow generated by operating activities is generally greater than the net profit. The preparation of enterprise cash flow budget is a particularly important part of financial management. Accurate cash flow budget can provide early warning signals for enterprises and enable operators to take measures as soon as possible. To this end, enterprises should sum up specific goals, express their expected future income, cash flow, financial status and investment plans in quantitative form, establish a comprehensive budget, predict future cash receipts and payments, and establish a rolling cash flow budget with weekly, monthly, quarterly, semi-annual and annual cycles.
Take appropriate risk strategies according to the actual situation. After establishing the risk early warning index system, enterprises should formulate feasible risk management strategies in view of the causes and processes of risk signals such as product backlog, quality decline, accounts receivable increase and cost increase. In the face of financial risks, we usually adopt the strategies of avoiding risks, controlling risks, accepting risks and dispersing risks. Among them, the risk control strategy can be further divided into preventive control and inhibitory control according to the control purpose. The former refers to determining the possible losses in advance and putting forward corresponding measures to prevent the losses from actually happening. The latter is to take measures for possible losses and minimize the degree of losses.