In recent times, local "two sessions" have been held intensively, and 31 provinces across the country have successively announced their economic growth targets for 2023.
Looking at the 2023 GDP target, the value range for 31 provinces is between 4% and 9.5%. Among them, the highest is in Hainan Province, the lowest is in Tianjin, and other provinces are mostly concentrated at 5% to 6.5%, with the majority at 6%.
In order to achieve this year’s economic growth goals, various regions have deployed key work arrangements for 2023. Expanding effective investment and promoting consumption are still key words. Many places have emphasized that they will make every effort to expand effective social demand and give priority to restoring and expanding consumption. More than 20 provinces have clearly proposed growth targets for fixed asset investment this year. In terms of investment direction, infrastructure construction still plays an important role, and manufacturing investment also has high hopes.
The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year required that the economic work in 2023 should be based on the strategic overall situation, starting from improving social psychological expectations and boosting development confidence, and do a good job in the overall plan. Many experts have analyzed that the market’s optimistic expectations for the economic trend in 2023 are continuing to strengthen. The expected economic growth targets proposed by each province convey the determination and confidence to go all out to improve the economy and accelerate economic recovery. All localities put "stable growth" in a more prominent position and concentrate on economic construction, which will effectively support the stabilization and recovery of the national economy.
All regions are striving for economic growth
Currently, 24 provinces have announced their economic growth rates in 2022, all of which have achieved positive growth, and 22 provinces and cities have announced their actual GDP growth rates in 2022. The specific value ranges from 2% to 5%, with the highest in Jiangxi Province and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, and the lowest in Chongqing City, Guizhou Province, and Guangdong Province, all estimated to be around 2%. In addition, Beijing City and Hainan Province only pointed out that "positive growth" was achieved in 2022 and did not announce specific values.
Judging from this year’s GDP targets announced by various regions, most provinces’ targets are higher than last year’s economic growth rate. Among them, Hainan is about 9.5%, Tibet is about 8%, Jiangxi and Xinjiang are about 7%, and Anhui, Ningxia, Hunan, and Hubei are about 6.5%. The rate in Chongqing is over 6%, that in Gansu and Henan is 6%, and that in Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, Fujian, Hebei, Sichuan and Guizhou is around 6%.
As the national economic center city, Shanghai’s GDP is expected to grow by more than 5.5% in 2023. Shanghai Mayor Gong Zheng explained that this is not only a realistic possibility, but also takes into account the needs of development and the balance between long and short. He pointed out that Shanghai undertakes a series of major national strategic tasks, and the spillover benefits are being released at an accelerated pace.
“Last year we introduced a large number of policies to stabilize growth and promote development, and the policy effects continued to show; coupled with objective reasons such as a low relative base last year, we have enough support and confidence to achieve This goal. "Gong Zheng said, "We hope to create better conditions for more full employment and more stable prices through reasonable growth in volume, further boost market confidence and stabilize social expectations. "
Guangdong, the largest economic province, has set a target growth rate of 5% this year. "Nanfang Daily" published an article ""Above 5%" is a "jump and reach" growth target" and pointed out that compared with Guangdong's "14th Five-Year Plan" economic growth target, growth of more than 5% this year can win the initiative for subsequent work. To ensure the completion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" goal of average annual growth of about 5%; in line with the mission of "a major economic province must take the lead", it is also necessary to use the "progress" of Guangdong's economy to better support the "stability" of the national economy.
Zhejiang Province has also set a 5% growth target. "Zhejiang Daily" issued an article saying that this took into account many factors. First of all, we must have a clear understanding of the current development situation. Optimizing and adjusting epidemic prevention policies is not a one-time solution. While it is expected that the flow of people, logistics and business will become smoother, we must also realize that economic and social development is facing an unprecedented new situation. Secondly, the impact of the epidemic in the past three years is indescribable. Neglect, the foundation for economic recovery is not yet solid; finally, we need to benchmark the general trend of international development. Judging from overseas experience, the general direction of gradually emerging from the epidemic and gradually improving the consumption environment is certain. However, it is affected by the rebound of the epidemic and residents’ awareness of self-protection. With the strengthening impact, short-term consumption is still under pressure.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Macroeconomic Research Department of the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that due to the unexpected impact of the epidemic in 2022, the difficulties faced by various regions by the end of the year will be very prominent. Coupled with the impact of complex internal and external environments, in such a situation On the basis of setting regional economic work goals for 2023, it more reflects a bottom-line thinking. The expected growth target has been lowered compared with the previous year, which is also a prediction made by various regions based on the economic difficulties they face and the analysis of their own conditions.
Pang Ming, chief economist and director of the research department of Jones Lang LaSalle Greater China, told China Business News that some provinces have set higher GDP growth targets, which shows that the current economic operation has maintained recovery and stability. The situation also reflects the determination to go all out for the economy. With the orderly implementation of various measures to optimize epidemic prevention and control, and the continued promotion of a package of policies and subsequent measures to stabilize the economy, all departments and regions are seizing the window period, opportunity period, and tough period to sprint forward. It is expected that the economy will show signs of decline this year. Obvious, comprehensive, positive improvements.
Efforts to expand effective social demand
The Central Economic Work Conference held at the end of last year pointed out that when deploying economic work in 2023, we should "focus on expanding domestic demand" and mentioned that "we must Restoring and expanding consumption is a priority."
China Business News combed through the key work arrangements for 2023 disclosed by various places and found that consumption and investment are still the key words. Pang Ming said that the key to economic recovery in 2023 still lies in fully expanding effective social demand, especially actively expanding domestic demand. It is expected that the next stage of economic work will be supported by the fundamental role of consumption and the key role of investment, stabilizing the confidence of market entities and the expectations of residents.
Shanghai proposed to enhance the fundamental role of consumption in economic development. Prioritize the restoration and expansion of consumption and deepen the construction of international consumption center cities. Fujian has made it clear that it will deeply implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, stabilize and expand bulk consumption such as automobiles and home appliances, and encourage the development of new energy vehicles, smart home appliances, green building materials and other rural areas. Hebei proposed to do everything possible to expand domestic demand and increase support for industries such as catering, accommodation, and retail.
Sichuan has made it clear that it will increase the role of domestic demand in driving economic growth, including vigorously promoting the recovery and revitalization of consumption, accelerating the construction of a world-famous and world-renowned important tourist destination, continuing to increase project investment, and accelerating modernization construction infrastructure to unleash the investment potential of new urbanization. Shandong will give top priority to vigorously promoting the recovery and expansion of consumption, and will implement the "Shandong Consumption Boost Year" action this year.
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, said that consumption is the ballast of the economy and plays a fundamental role in economic growth. Against the background that the global economy is likely to enter recession in 2023 and external demand further shrinks, the role of domestic demand, especially consumption, will become more prominent.
Yao Yang, dean of the National Development Research Institute of Peking University, proposed that in 2023 we should still focus on promoting consumption. Consumption has been sluggish in the past few years, especially in 2022, and it is easy to rebound on a low base. In addition, people's consumption desire has been suppressed for three years. In 2023, consumption will become the focus of stabilizing the economy.
UBS Securities predicts that under the premise of GDP growth of about 5% in 2023, consumption growth will be close to 6% to 7%. Excess savings will be an important factor in driving consumption in 2023. The main reasons for suppressing consumption in the past three years are restrictions on service-related consumption scenarios and lack of consumer confidence. With the recovery of offline scenes and the recovery of confidence, consumer savings return to normalization, and part of the excess savings will be converted into consumption, bringing about a consumption growth of about 10%. This part of consumer demand will be released this year or next year.
Many places have clarified investment plans for this year
According to local government work reports, more than 20 provinces have clearly proposed growth targets for fixed asset investment this year.
Beijing stated that it will maintain the momentum of rapid growth in investment in important areas this year, continue to maintain a good growth trend based on the fixed asset investment of the whole society reaching 800 billion yuan last year, and strive to achieve an increase of more than 4%. Zhejiang proposed to implement the "thousands of trillions" project to expand effective investment to ensure that more than 1 trillion yuan of investment in major projects is completed in 2023, driving fixed asset investment to grow by more than 6%. Henan plans to launch about 100 major projects worth tens of billions in four major areas including industrial transformation and infrastructure, and strives to complete an investment of more than 2 trillion yuan in 2023.
In terms of investment direction, infrastructure construction still occupies an important position. Chongqing strives to achieve an annual infrastructure investment growth rate of more than 11%; Xinjiang has made it clear that it will innovate and establish a diversified infrastructure investment and financing system to promote the construction of transportation, energy, water conservancy, urban construction, new infrastructure and other fields, and at the same time promote multiple railways, highways Construction of major infrastructure projects begins.
Yang Chang, head of the policy group and chief analyst of Zhongtai Securities Research Institute, told China Business News that from the perspective of the expenditure method, infrastructure investment is still the focus of expanding investment. From the perspective of fields, including aerospace power, maritime power, basic farmland transformation, and sinking of high-quality medical resources are expected to become the focus of infrastructure investment.
Manufacturing investment also has high hopes. Shanghai has made it clear that it will promote the implementation of a number of high-energy industrial projects that are leading, motivating and demonstrative; Jiangxi has proposed an action plan to reshape the manufacturing base and implement about 3,000 technological transformation projects for industrial enterprises; Guangdong will support 9,000 industrial enterprises Carry out equipment updates and technological transformation, promote the "small-scale upgrading" of more than 7,000 enterprises, and accelerate the advancement of high-end, intelligent, and green transformation.
Sichuan Cai Securities pointed out that this year infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment will continue to shoulder the important task of stabilizing investment and promoting growth. Digitalization and intelligence, carbon neutrality and green development are the key directions for the transformation and upgrading of my country's manufacturing industry. The transformation and upgrading of high-end manufacturing will bring a large number of equipment updates and transformation needs. In the future, it is still possible to increase support for high-end manufacturing and technological innovation, and manufacturing investment will assume the task of underpinning the economy to a certain extent. Driven by the current policies to stabilize growth, new and old infrastructure sectors have joined forces to help the country's economy develop steadily and healthily.
Economic growth targets for each province in 2023