Directory:
Operation link 1: Take the first investment step successfully.
The second operation link: the misunderstanding of feasibility study and its countermeasures
The third operation link: the strategic analysis of real estate feasibility study.
Step 4: Design a successful feasibility study process.
Step 5: Write an excellent feasibility study report.
Operation 6: How to coordinate the investment budget of feasibility study?
Step 7: Conduct a feasibility study from the overall situation.
operating guide
Feasibility study usually refers to the game where to shoot, shoot an arrow first and then draw a bull's-eye. The phased restriction of China real estate development leads to many uncertain factors in the market, and there is also a lot of room for manoeuvre for the success or failure of the project. Therefore, the most dangerous thing is that the feasibility study only becomes a rhetoric. The Practical Operation Manual of Real Estate Feasibility Study summarizes the main points and procedures of real estate feasibility study from a practical point of view, and incorporates them into the overall strategic design.
The first operation link: the first step of successful investment.
1. Perspective on the feasibility study of private real estate
The feasibility study of real estate development project is a comprehensive study to make a comprehensive and systematic investigation and analysis of the proposed development project before the investment decision, and obtain a series of evaluation indexes by using scientific technical evaluation methods, and finally determine whether the project is feasible.
Generally speaking, the feasibility study is based on market supply and demand, limited by resource input, with scientific methods as the means and a series of evaluation indicators as the results. It usually has to deal with two problems:
The first is to determine whether the project can be implemented technically;
The second is how to achieve the best benefits (mainly economic benefits).
Judging from the actual situation of real estate project development, from the construction technology alone, there is generally no major difficulty that cannot be broken for a while. Whether it is a long-span bridge or a super-high-rise building, such as Yangpu and nanpu bridge, the 88-story Jinmao Tower with a height of 420 meters, and the Oriental Pearl with a height of 468 meters, it is a good proof. It can be seen that the key lies in the return on investment, that is, whether the best economic benefits can be achieved while taking into account social and environmental benefits.
2. Project investment is the first magic weapon to win.
Before the implementation of real estate projects, investment feasibility analysis must be carried out. At this stage, feasibility analysis is to solve the possibility of success of a specific project. Of course, just because an investment plan is likely to be successful or feasible does not mean that the project is suitable. Under normal circumstances, feasibility analysis should not only study one scheme, but also study several schemes at the same time. Sometimes several schemes may be feasible and attractive. In order to choose the best scheme from several feasible schemes, researchers can only comprehensively consider the market, capital, risk and other issues on the basis of feasibility analysis, and comprehensively evaluate the reasonable choice. Feasibility study, at least can accurately answer three questions:
Is this project feasible?
If so, to what extent?
C. If you invest, what is the worst situation you may encounter, and what should you do for it?
Misunderstandings and countermeasures in the feasibility study of the second operation link
2. Common misunderstandings
Misunderstanding 1: Benefit Analysis of Standards
If your project feasibility study report tells you with certainty how much money you can earn in the future, you will definitely earn that much money, which is definitely not a realistic report. A professional and serious project feasibility study report can't just be a benefit standard. In the feasibility study, we encountered too many uncertain factors. These uncertain factors make the future price and sales process of the project in a relatively uncertain state. So, feasibility study? Benefit analysis? Not sure, only reasonable predictions, and these predictions need to assume the premise, that is, expectations. The feasibility study gives different expected benefit forecasts according to different expected values.
Myth 2: Feasibility study of preconceived ideas
The author visited more than a dozen failed large-scale real estate investments and found that most of the failures were caused by some foreseeable factors. These factors include: the senior villa is located in a large industrial zone, which leads to the destruction of the villa environment and no one cares about the villa; Developing high-rise apartments in a township many kilometers away from the urban area, the result is that no one cares; I'm going to live in a community for farmers whose planning is out of control, but it's cheaper? Fund-raising house? Give up halfway under the impact of; At the same time, the supply of similar buildings in the same city is too large, resulting in insufficient demand; The construction cost far exceeds the budget, resulting in the failure of funds; A new viaduct passes through the waist, which invalidates the advantages of Meilou shops. The original commercial land was demolished on a large scale because of subway construction, and it became? Looking forward to the corner? Wait a minute. When communicating with the developers of these projects, they usually lament the difficulties encountered? What a surprise. However, I should have thought of it long ago. Look at these projects again? Feasibility study poverty report? Almost all of them are in the same tone: quoting classics and describing the bright future of this project investment from all angles, but it just doesn't mention the unfavorable factors of this project investment. Like this? Feasibility study? It has been proved that the project is feasible from beginning to end. Guilty for 7? Prejudice? Taboo.
* * * Pre-conceived feasibility studies are usually caused by the following reasons.
The subjective will of leaders of real estate investment enterprises is at work. Often because? Sir, will? As for the impact on the project, the project researchers are worried that finding fault with the project will offend the boss, so they learn to observe and judge everything around the meaning of the leader. Therefore, in order to avoid the development of this situation, the company leaders should give more support and less intervention, so that the research group can lay down their burdens and investigate and analyze with scientific methods.
The professional level of the research group personnel is not enough. The feasibility study of some projects is not given to experts who are really good at it, but to some college teachers or people in our company. In doing so, the intelligence and ability structure of the research group is very unreasonable, and it is impossible to expect them to produce a truly credible feasibility study report.
Some developers entrust the feasibility study to some architectural consulting institutions, whose scientific research strength is too hard, but because the project means business to them, unless the developer declares in advance that the units participating in the feasibility study cannot undertake the engineering consulting business of this project, it is unlikely to maintain a neutral research attitude.
In order to save trouble, some developers ask the other party who cooperates with them to provide a feasibility study report. This is when there is intentional contact. It is necessary, but it should be clear that the feasibility study done by the other party is only based on its own investment behavior and is not suitable for the current developers; Sometimes in order to win other people's investment, the other party may unilaterally exaggerate the investment value of the project, and such a feasibility study cannot be neutral.
3. Corresponding countermeasures
Accelerating specialization and market cultivation, and promoting the scale and specialization of the industry are the fundamental guarantee to improve the level of feasibility study, ensure its accuracy, depth and control errors. At present, the market is gradually becoming standardized and mature, and the increasingly fierce market competition has become the external driving force for enterprises to strengthen feasibility study. Improve the quality of employees. This is the basic guarantee to control the feasibility error. In a sense, a feasibility researcher should be? All-rounder must have considerable professional knowledge in engineering technology, economy, real estate development and management, laws and regulations, taxation, finance and so on.
Establish a feasibility study database. At present, the transparency of the domestic real estate market is not high, and it is often difficult for feasibility researchers to collect complete and accurate market information (in Hong Kong, surveyors can obtain information from the Hong Kong Land Registry when analyzing? 1. Equivalent to the Land and Housing Administration of the Mainland, refer to recent transaction cases and relevant information of previous properties). The lack of information or errors may bring huge errors to the feasibility analysis. In this case, it is more necessary for feasibility analysts to strengthen the collection and collation of information: through the process of removing the rough and selecting the fine, removing the false and retaining the true, the scattered information in the market will be sorted into usable data. In addition, qualified enterprises can also strengthen post-project evaluation and extract useful information through analysis and comparison to further improve the practicability of feasibility study.
The third operation link: the strategic analysis of real estate feasibility study.
Analysis Angle 1: The impact of social, economic and environmental protection on the real estate market
The real estate industry is not an isolated industry. Many places in this book emphasize that the real estate industry is regarded as the national economy? Nozzle industry? It's wrong to look at it. This is not just a matter of saying, but a basic question of understanding: does the real estate industry drive the development of the national economy or does the growth of the national economy drive the development of the real estate industry? If this problem is reversed, there will be a fundamental error in the judgment of the situation. Both government and enterprises will lead to. Ancestors? Decision-making tendency For example, in Hainan, Huizhou, Beihai and other places in the early 1990 s, the abnormal expansion and ups and downs of the real estate industry were the consequences of ignoring the development of the local national economy, reversing the primary and secondary, and not putting the real estate industry in a correct position.
Analysis angle 2: the influence of local government administrative behavior on the market.
The level of urban planning and planning control of some local governments directly affects local real estate development. As we all know, in Zhangjiagang City and Jiangyin City, where urban planning and management are good, real estate development has been in a relatively stable state. Advanced scientific planning, effective scale control and strict planning management have avoided the blind and rushing headlong into the real estate development in these two cities. In line with the principle of supporting, developing and managing together, there is basically no oversupply in the residential market here, and the pre-sale results of all properties are very good. In contrast, the scale of land transfer in many cities is seriously out of control, and the management of the real estate market is chaotic, which leads to serious land speculation, excessive supply of commercial housing, ups and downs of market prices, and improper planning and management by local governments, which brings great risks to developers.
Analysis angle 3: the influence of block environment on real estate marketing.
Gubei New District is not the center of Shanghai. Why is the property price so expensive? It turns out that the first Shanghai Foreign Trade Zone was first developed in the 1980s? Hongqiao Development Zone, with more and more foreign businessmen working here, the neighboring Gubei New District has naturally become the main target for foreign businessmen to buy or rent a house. The area is full of luxury houses, and the residents are mostly compatriots from Hong Kong and Taiwan and foreigners, so it has become the only one in Shanghai. A veritable foreign residential area. This makes Gubei New District enjoy a high reputation and naturally forms a unique social circle and living community. The building quality in this area is not bad, and there are many demanders who are willing to pay a lot of money. So prices and rents have been rising steadily. After entering 1996, although the house price in this community has declined, it is still the most expensive place in the country.
From the example of Gubei New District, it seems that the value of real estate does not depend entirely on the grade and quality of the building itself, but also on the surrounding neighborhood environment. It is precisely because of the development of Hongqiao Development Zone that there is a demand for noble houses in Gubei New District, and there is a clear functional complementary relationship between Hongqiao Development Zone and Gubei New District. Block function is the external motive force to realize the market value of real estate.
* * * * Investigation on investors' own situation
1, test your experience
Interlaced like a mountain, it is difficult to buy cattle across the mountain. It is impossible for any company to invest in areas that it doesn't know at all, and so is real estate investment. Even if it is a qualified enterprise in the real estate industry, if the company used to develop office buildings in the urban area and now the target investment object is suburban villas, can it be considered? That depends on whether the management of the company has talents with villa development experience, otherwise it is better to be cautious. Of course, things are not absolute when you think? Experience? When the risk is worth taking, there is no need to think about it.
2. Check your investment method.
Due to different enterprise backgrounds and strengths, real estate investment enterprises have different project investment methods. Maybe your enterprise will never rent a building to get long-term returns, but build some and sell some, or even develop them through pre-sale, so you should think twice about those projects suitable for long-term development and areas suitable for long-term investment. Sometimes a good project becomes smelly shit in the hands of some real estate enterprises, and you can't throw it away if you want.
3. Check your financing ability.
The development of every real estate project will encounter the problems of borrowing and financing. The question is whether your lending channels and financing channels are reliable. If the project is built halfway and your follow-up funds are not provided, it will be fatal. I've seen many such things: a half-built project has been shut down for two or three years because there is no follow-up fund, and the upfront cost has increased by half, so even if it is built, there is no profit at all, which is obviously a loss-making business. Analysis Angle 4: What is the influence of investors' own conditions on marketing? Too expensive and self-aware? . It is impossible for real estate developers not to analyze their own conditions when analyzing projects. It is impossible for a company to develop various projects and take various risks. Therefore, when investigating whether a region or a project is worth investing, we should also weigh whether the company is suitable for investing in that region.
The fourth operation link is the successful feasibility study process.
Step 1 Personnel arrangement and combination
Registered real estate appraiser, cost engineer, market researcher and analyst, economic analyst, producer, sociology, environment and other experts.
Step b: Market analysis
First, the macro factor analysis
When real estate developers plan to invest in a certain area of a country, the first thing to consider is the macro factors of the country, such as politics, economy, culture, geography, customs and religious beliefs, as well as the possibility of regional conflicts or wars.
B. Analysis of regional factors
Generally speaking, the development between China and the project area is unbalanced, and the differences always exist to varying degrees. It is not enough to study its macro factors, but also to analyze the factors in the area where the project is located. This is because: first, the macro-economy has different impacts on the regional economy, with great impacts on some areas and little impacts on others; Secondly, the development of regional economy is influenced by macro-economy. Time lag? Phenomenon, the macroeconomic situation often takes a long time to have an impact on the development of regional economy, some areas respond quickly, and some areas are obviously lagging behind, so investment must be considered; Third, the specific regional economies of the three countries make some regional economies more or less affected by macroeconomic fluctuations, and even form a trend opposite to macroeconomic trends. China's special economic zones, free trade unions and bonded areas are relatively less dependent on international capital. Even during China's macroeconomic adjustment, when domestic funds are tight, its international capital is less affected, and projects in these fields are less affected.
C. Micro-market analysis
The analysis of the real estate micro-market in the region where the proposed investment project is located can be divided into the following two parts: one is the analysis of the proposed investment real estate market, and the other is the analysis of the same type of real estate market as the investment project.
Step c: Market forecast
demand forecasting
Demand forecasting is based on the information, data and materials of real estate market survey, and uses scientific methods to analyze and predict the market demand law and changing trend of a certain kind of real estate, so as to infer the market demand for this kind of real estate.
Supply forecast
Supply forecasting is based on the information and data of real estate market survey, using scientific methods to analyze the market supply law and changing trend of a certain kind of property, so as to predict the supply situation of this kind of property in the market.
C prediction method
Usually it can be divided into time series analysis and causality analysis. Time series analysis method can be divided into: moving average method, exponential smoothing method and so on. Causality analysis can be divided into linear regression method, nonlinear regression method and simulation method.
Step d: Cost calculation
In the feasibility study of real estate development projects, project cost calculation is an important link, which is jointly completed by appraisers and cost engineers. Whether the cost calculation is correct or not, like the prediction of the rental and sales market, has a great influence on the economic benefits of the project, but relatively speaking, the cost calculation is easier to grasp.
Generally speaking, the cost structure includes the following four parts:
A land upfront cost: refers to the cost of obtaining a reasonable land ownership certificate, completing the demolition of existing buildings on the land, opening construction water, electricity and roads, and completing site leveling. According to the different ways of land acquisition, it can be divided into three types: the upfront fee for new land acquisition, the upfront fee for old district reconstruction and the land lease fee.
B. Design, construction and installation expenses: refers to the expenses from planning and design to civil engineering, equipment installation, decoration works, community supporting and community greening after the completion of the site three links and one leveling.
C municipal supporting fee: refers to the supporting fee that must be paid to the municipal construction of the city when the project is developed, mainly the water and electricity fee generated by the new real estate project.
Step e: Financial evaluation
The indicators of project investment scheme evaluation are generally divided into two categories:
One is a dynamic index considering seven discount factors, that is, an index considering seven time value factors of money, including net present value, profit index, dynamic payback period, embedded return and other indicators.
The other is non-discounted static indicators, that is, indicators that consider the time value of money, such as static payback period and investment profit rate. In the evaluation of real estate development projects, dynamic indicators are the main indicators, supplemented by static indicators. The following briefly introduces three commonly used static evaluation indicators.
Step f: break-even analysis
Break-even analysis, also known as quantity, cost and profit analysis in financial management, refers to a method to judge the quality and profitability of a proposed project by analyzing the relationship between output (quantity), cost (expense) and income (profit) under a certain market production capacity.
The key to break-even analysis is to find the break-even point (BPe0K-evenP0iDt), that is, the point at which the project profit reaches the break-even state is zero. Generally speaking, under the premise of a certain project output capacity, the lower the break-even point, the greater the project profitability and the better the operational safety. In the feasibility study of real estate projects, the so-called break-even analysis refers to finding out the sales volume when the expected sales revenue can just cover the cost for a specific project, also called guaranteed sales volume.
Step g: sensitivity analysis
Sensitivity analysis is to study the corresponding changes in the economic benefits of the project when some factors change, and to judge the degree of influence of these factors on the economic objectives of the project. Sensitivity analysis can not only make developers understand the impact of factor changes on project financial evaluation indicators, but also enable them to carefully re-study those more sensitive factors to improve the accuracy of project feasibility study.
The index of reaction sensitivity is the sensitivity coefficient:
Sensitivity coefficient = percentage change of target value/percentage change of parameter value.
For example, with the selling price as the parameter value and the present value of the net cash flow of the project as the target value, it is known that the selling price will increase by 10%,
If the present value of net cash flow increases by 20%, then the sensitivity coefficient of selling price =20%/ 10%=2.
The sensitivity coefficient can be positive or negative. If the sensitivity coefficient is negative, it means that the target value changes in the opposite direction to the parameter value.
The greater the sensitivity coefficient, the more sensitive the parameter is to the target value, and the more cautious it should be in the feasibility study.
Step h: Risk analysis
Risk analysis, also known as probability analysis, uses probability value to quantitatively study the probability distribution of different deterministic factors in different ranges and their influence on the economic effect of the scheme, and describes the economic effect index of the scheme in probability, so as to make a more accurate judgment on the risk status of the scheme.
The fifth operation link: write an excellent feasibility study report.
B, the main body of the feasibility study report.
The text is the core part of the feasibility study report. A lot of content, more complicated.
1, in general:
(1) Feasibility study background;
(2) The name, nature, address, surrounding municipal facilities and infrastructure, traffic and surrounding environment of the research project;
(3) The name, address, legal representative, business license registration number and contact person of the entrusting party;
(4) The name, address, legal representative, business license registration number and contact person of the trustee;
(5) the purpose of the feasibility study;
(six) the list of feasibility study personnel;
(seven) the basis for the preparation of the feasibility study;
(8) Assumptions and explanations of the research report.
2. Market investigation and analysis: The project needs macro, regional and micro market analysis and investigation, and the forecast of future supply, demand and price should be not only qualitatively analyzed, but also quantitatively deduced.
3. Planning and design scheme: it is required to write down the planning and design scheme of the project and whether the municipal conditions are met during the construction process. Municipal conditions include water, electricity, coal, sanitation, communication, heating (in some areas) and roads. The report must have written documents on whether these municipal conditions are available.
4. Construction mode and schedule: Professionals can make suggestions on the entrustment of the project construction mode or the entrusting party can provide the construction mode and schedule, and once confirmed, it will prepare for the subsequent investment estimation.
5. Investment budget and fund-raising require that all expenses that must occur in the process of project construction be written down, the fund-raising parts be calculated one by one, and financing arrangements be made for the investment amount and corresponding payment time of the whole project. For example, the arrangement of three main sources of funds: self-owned funds, loans and pre-sale income.
6. Financial evaluation of the project: it is required to write the calculation results of main financial evaluation indexes such as net present value, profitability index, internal rate of return and dynamic payback period.
7. Risk analysis: Generally, it is required to calculate guaranteed sales, break-even point, sensitivity analysis of main sensitive factors under favorable and unfavorable conditions, and calculate corresponding financial evaluation indicators.
8. Conclusion: It is required to write the conclusion of the feasibility study of the project and clearly explain whether the project is feasible and has strong anti-risk ability.
9. Relevant suggestions: Some suggestions found by professionals of professional institutions in the feasibility study will help the project to obtain better economic, social and environmental benefits for the reference of the entrusting party. Schedule: There are many calculation tables involved in the feasibility study report, such as investment estimation table, sales income table, fund raising table, interest calculation table, cash flow table, sensitivity analysis calculation table, etc.
The sixth operation link: how to coordinate the investment budget of feasibility study
In some non-standard feasibility study reports of real estate projects, the project investment budget only includes the engineering budget of seven projects. This is not a good way to settle accounts. A real estate project is not equal to a simple building, it needs marketing cost, financial cost and construction cost, and project investment is to meet these costs. Moreover, the project budget estimate is not necessarily equal to the actual investment of the developer in the project construction. On the premise of proving feasible, we can also adopt the rolling investment development mode of adding investment and recovering funds, so that the actual total investment of developers in engineering construction will be much smaller. The phenomenon of replacing project investment estimation with project estimation is extremely serious. room
The seventh operation link: feasibility study from the overall situation.
Pre-grasping the feasibility study of reality
In fact, a good marketer is the best profit creator and digger. They are committed to analyzing various marketing opportunities's profit potentials and capturing profit opportunities. Such a house is built with a purpose. Excellent real estate companies should examine their business from the inside and outside of the organization, monitor the changing environment and seize the best opportunity. The main responsibility of the company's marketing staff is to identify the main changes in the external environment and meet the new challenges and opportunities in the marketing environment by establishing an early warning system and changing marketing strategies. Consumer market analysis is as important as marketing environment analysis. The consumer market includes individuals and families, and consumers vary greatly in age, income, education level, migration status, hobbies and so on. It is very useful for marketers to distinguish different consumer groups in small markets and develop products and services according to their needs. Based on the analysis of consumer behavior, this paper analyzes how marketing planners make marketing plans from the perspective of consumers' purchasing psychology. Specifically, the following questions need to be studied: What to buy? Why buy it? Who is the buyer? How to buy? Where to buy it? Where to buy it?
Conduct feasibility study for selecting market and formulating strategy.
On this basis, detailed and targeted market research, market analysis, selection of appropriate target market, formulation of product positioning strategy, product development and pricing strategy, marketing channel strategy, promotion combination strategy and after-sales service, that is, property management strategy. The company should make a product positioning strategy for each selected market segment. He needs to explain to customers how the company is different from existing competitors and potential competitors. Positioning is the act of delineating the company's image and the value it provides, so that customers in this market segment can understand and correctly understand the characteristics of the company different from competitors. The positioning task includes three steps:
Identify some available competitive advantages;
Select several applicable advantages;
Effectively show the company's positioning concept to the market.
Product is the first and most important factor in marketing, and the real estate product strategy needs to make decisions on product type selection, development risk, development plan formulation and benefit analysis. The types of real estate products can be roughly divided into land, houses, apartments, shopping centers and shops, industrial buildings, hotels and other special-purpose properties. The risk selection of real estate product development is closely related to the financing channels of real estate development funds. Risk and return are in direct proportion. If a project cannot generate enough income to repay the mortgage and generate positive cash flow, or the total debt of the project exceeds its value, it is considered as over-financing. It is wise to make as much money as possible and keep some cash and property with strong liquidity within the limits of being prepared to follow risks. Real estate development strategy is to make various investment decisions and pre-arranged plans-how much to invest? What kind of investment? Where to invest and how to start? Development planning generally includes the following contents: development goal, investment scale and investment amount, operating expenses and taxes, investment income mode and income scale, and cash flow analysis during operation.
Feasibility study of incorporating into the overall marketing plan
A good real estate marketing plan should finally have a good plan, so as to grasp the whole marketing activity as a whole. The plan should generally include the following eight items:
1, plan summary (easy for decision makers to browse quickly)
2. Marketing Status (providing background information)
3. Analysis of opportunities and problems
4. Target, sales volume, market share and profit level
5. Market strategy
6. Action Plan: What to do? Who will do it? How? When will it be done? How much will it cost?
7. Estimated income statement
8. Management measures
Does the strategy involve marketing activities? What is this? And then what? Why? Question, what is involved in implementation? Who, when and where? Wait for questions. The main factors affecting the effective implementation of marketing plan are: the skills of finding and diagnosing problems; Techniques for evaluating existing problems; Skills to execute the plan; Skills of evaluating the implementation effect.