Judging from the effect of the implementation of the previous policy, the current export tax rebate policy was formulated during the period of China's economic downturn and weak export, which played a good role in increasing exports, but also brought negative effects such as defrauding export tax rebates and reducing fiscal revenue. At present, China's economic situation and import and export situation have undergone tremendous changes. The main contradiction of import and export trade has become excessive trade surplus, which has caused a lot of trade frictions, increased the pressure of RMB appreciation and aggravated the excess liquidity of banks. In the past two years, although the export tax rebate policy has been adjusted many times, the major policy of stimulating a large number of exports has not changed, which is contrary to the goal of reducing the trade surplus and improving the balance of payments. From July 1 2007, the country began to implement a new export tax rebate policy, and 553 export tax rebates for "high energy consumption, high pollution and resource" products were cancelled, and the export tax rebate rate for 2,268 goods that are easy to cause trade friction was further reduced, involving industries such as chemical industry, non-ferrous metal processing, clothing, shoes and hats and ships, with a total of 283/KL. The scope and intensity of this adjustment show the country's determination to ease the excessive trade surplus and adjust the industrial structure. However, we still need to have a clear understanding of how to evaluate the role of this round of export tax rebate policy.
First, the impact analysis of export tax rebate policy adjustment
The main purpose of this export tax rebate adjustment is to further control the excessive growth of exports and alleviate the contradiction caused by the excessive trade surplus. However, from the adjustment content, this adjustment is a structural adjustment, which is conducive to further optimizing the industrial structure and promoting the upgrading of the export structure, but has limited effect on reducing the trade surplus.
1, the impact on the trade surplus
Faced with the rapid growth of exports, this round of export tax rebate policy is difficult to curb. In recent years, China's export structure has undergone significant changes: the export proportion of machinery and equipment products has been increasing, from 33. 1% in 2000 to 47. 1% in 2006; The proportion of raw materials and consumer goods exports has been declining. The former decreased from 5% in 2000 to 2.7% in 2006, while the latter decreased from 39.9% in 2000 to 27.3% in 2006. This adjustment is a structural adjustment with pressure. On the one hand, it reduces the export tax rebate rate of "two high-tech and one capital" products and low value-added consumer goods, on the other hand, it maintains the tax rebate rate of high-tech products and agricultural products processing industry. The adjustment of tax rebate rate for machinery and equipment products is limited, while the export of mechanical and electrical products and high-tech products accounts for a relatively high proportion. Therefore, this adjustment is difficult to curb the rapid growth of exports.
Facing the increasing foreign trade surplus, it is difficult to reduce the export tax rebate policy in this round. From January to May this year, China's total trade surplus was $85.72 billion, of which the general trade surplus was only $36.03 billion, while the processing trade surplus of $90.65 billion was 2.5 times that of the general trade surplus. Because it mainly involves "two high-tech and one capital" and low value-added products, this export tax rebate adjustment has a greater impact on the general trade of textiles and clothing, steel and resource-based products, but has a smaller impact on the processing trade of incoming materials, feed materials and accessories. At the same time, the export of processing trade occupies an important position in China's total export, which makes part of the import demand closely related to processing trade, and the adjustment of export tax rebate will affect the export of processing trade and the import of raw materials at the same time, thus further reducing the actual decline of trade surplus.
2, the impact on the industrial structure
This round of export tax rebate policy has a certain impact on the export of so-called "two high-tech and one capital" products. Because of the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy, it has obvious guidance for two major industrial policies, one is to limit the export of high energy consumption, high pollution and resource products, the other is to minimize trade friction and enhance the added value of products. The large-scale adjustment of the export tax rebate rate will, to a certain extent, change the current quantitative development model of textile and garment industry, steel, nonferrous metals and other enterprises characterized by low cost and low added value, which will not only help reduce the number of trade frictions in China, but also drive the adjustment of the national industrial structure and export commodity structure.
In recent years, the cost of production factors in the textile and garment industry has been rising, and many homogeneous low value-added products have intensified the vicious competition in the market, and the profit space of enterprises has been shrinking day by day. The continuous appreciation of RMB has gradually weakened the price advantage of China's textile and garment products, and the profit rate of the garment industry has dropped to about 7%-9%. The gradual decline of export tax rebate rate will make small and medium-sized enterprises with single variety and low added value merged or eliminated, while large enterprises will gradually expand their production scale and continue to occupy a place in the international market with their high-tech products with high added value. This will help guide the garment industry to adjust its industrial structure and enhance the grade and added value of China's export products.
The country only restricts the export of "two high-tech and one capital" products in the medium and long term, but in the short term, this round of export tax rebate policy has very limited regulatory effect on it. Taking the steel industry as an example, due to the overcapacity of the steel industry and the strong demand in the international market, the growth rate of China's steel exports has been accelerating, which has also led the regulatory authorities to carry out a series of controls on steel enterprises. However, the control policy has caused the steel products originally intended for export to flow back to China, which has not only depressed the domestic steel price, but also raised the international market price and increased the price difference between domestic and foreign steel, thus leading to a greater increase in steel exports and pushing the country to adopt more stringent export control measures. Steel export and its export policy adjustment have formed a vicious circle. Therefore, in the short term, in view of the obvious cost advantages of Chinese enterprises and the large price difference between domestic and foreign products, the cancellation and downward adjustment of export tax rebate rate has little impact on the export of products in industries such as cement, chemical industry, steel and non-ferrous metals. However, in the medium and long term, the reduction of export tax rebate rate for "two high-tech and one capital" products will accelerate the integration of "two high-tech and one capital" industries, and enable them to carry out strategic restructuring through strong alliances, mergers and acquisitions, and mutual shareholding, so as to realize the adjustment and optimization of industry organizational structure.
Second, the export tax rebate policy adjustment may lead to problems
At present, the production and operation order of enterprises has been impacted to some extent. Although the rumors of export tax rebate policy adjustment have been around for a long time, since this adjustment was made after the Spring Fair, most orders of enterprises have been signed. In addition, there is no transition period for this adjustment, and there is no buffer period for enterprises. In the first half of the year, most of the contracts signed by enterprises need to be performed at a loss. There are many uncertainties about whether the fixed contract in the second half of the year can be negotiated with customers to raise the price, and the enterprise is caught in a dilemma of "renewing the contract" or "breaking the contract".
The impact of the slowdown in export growth on maintaining steady and rapid economic growth throughout the year. From Zhejiang, the major foreign trade export industries, such as textiles and clothing, machinery and electronics, leather, etc., are mostly labor-intensive products, with low technical content, added value of products, profit rate, etc. The export tax rebate rate is lowered this time, and some small and medium-sized enterprises' export business may be unsustainable, which may lead to a decline in the export growth rate of the whole province on the one hand and a new round of industry reshuffle on the other. In a certain period of time, it will have an impact on the overall economy.
The closure and transfer of enterprises will lead to social problems such as unemployment. At present, the profit margin of China's textile, clothing, hardware, electrical and mechanical products export enterprises is generally around 2-5 percentage points. However, the sharp reduction of the tax rebate rate has further squeezed the profit margin of enterprises. In addition, due to the comprehensive influence of rising raw material prices, rising labor costs, appreciation of RMB exchange rate and other factors, the production and operation of some enterprises will be unsustainable, and some small and medium-sized enterprises are likely to close down in this round of adjustment, which will lead to a large number of laid-off workers and unemployment.
Third, the prospect of regulatory policies and countermeasures and suggestions for development
Judging from the economic operation in recent years and the first half of this year, the momentum of China's economic development is still very strong, and the pressure of economic growth from fast to overheated is still great. At present, the main goal and primary task of macroeconomic regulation and control is still to curb the rapid economic growth from overheating.
1, regulation policy outlook
-Further adjust the export tax rebate policy. China's export tax rebate still has a large room for adjustment. Such as clothing, shoes and hats, luggage, furniture and other products, the export tax rebate rate is still high after this adjustment, and these products are also easy to cause trade friction, so there may be room for further adjustment; At the same time, because the growth rate of "two high-tech and one capital" industries is still relatively fast, the state will probably continue to cancel the export tax rebate for some products, increase the export tariff for some products, gradually expand the product range for reducing the export tax rebate rate, such as some mechanical and electrical products with low added value, and gradually increase the resource tax for scarce resources, high pollution and high energy consumption minerals.
-Continue to expand the import of advanced technology and equipment. First, introduce the policy of expanding the import of advanced technology and equipment as soon as possible, focus on supporting the import of advanced technology and equipment such as integrated circuit manufacturing equipment, high-grade chemical fiber equipment and high-performance CNC machine tools that are urgently needed in China, and actively encourage the import of new equipment, new processes and new technologies that save energy and reduce consumption; Second, increase imports from countries with trade surpluses, continue to organize enterprises to purchase abroad, and expand imports of high-tech products from developed economies such as the United States; The third is to further simplify procedures and facilitate imports. In addition to retaining some equipment related to the equipment manufacturing industry and some sensitive products, the scope of import license for mechanical and electrical products will be further reduced.
-Strictly investigate false exports. The long-term implementation of preferential policies of export tax rebate, tariff reduction and value-added tax has led to the more serious phenomenon of domestic false exports. We should strictly investigate the "abnormal trade growth", strengthen the management of import and export trade, curb false exports, squeeze out the foreign trade bubble and reduce the foreign trade surplus; We will speed up the improvement of the classification of China's import and export products, focusing on the inspection of high-tech products, machinery and transportation equipment, textile products, rubber products, mining and smelting products and other import and export products that have experienced great abnormal fluctuations in recent years, and effectively guard against possible false exports.
2. Suggestions for the next development.
Excessive trade surplus is a new problem that has only appeared in the past two years. Excessive trade surplus not only greatly increases trade friction, but also increases the tension of resources and environment.
The pressure of RMB appreciation. In China's foreign trade, the trade surplus will exist for a long time. The key is to control it within a reasonable scale and find a good way out for its use.
-continue to increase publicity and raise the awareness of enterprises. Through various channels, the information of policy adjustment will be transmitted in time, and the enterprises involved in this adjustment will be guided to actively resolve the impact and impact brought by the policy. Further improve the sense of hardship of foreign trade enterprises that are not involved in adjustment, deeply understand the policy intention, strive to change the business direction of enterprises and adjust the product structure according to the policy orientation, and actively develop potential products and markets.
-promoting the transformation of foreign trade growth mode and increasing the structural adjustment of foreign trade products. Vigorously support enterprises to carry out independent innovation, improve the scientific and technological content and added value of export products, and change the extensive foreign trade growth mode. Actively develop processing trade with high added value and lengthen the industrial chain of international trade in China. Encourage the import of important raw materials, advanced equipment and key parts to reduce the trade surplus.
-accelerate the construction of export brands and increase
Intellectual property protection. Without brand, there is no pricing power and no core.
Competitiveness, naturally at a disadvantage in international exchange, is bound to be subject to people. To create an export brand, in addition to the enterprise's own efforts, the government's active guidance and social concern are urgently needed to provide necessary policy support for brand enterprises. Help enterprises to carry out brand promotion, provide convenience for famous brand enterprises to invest in foreign countries to establish R&D, production, sales and after-sales service systems, and at the same time increase the protection of intellectual property rights of products with independent brands.
-Actively encourage enterprises to "go global". Implement the "going out" strategy, establish and improve the "going out" promotion, service and support system, create an institutional and policy environment conducive to enterprises' "going out", actively encourage overseas factories and windows, and especially encourage Chinese enterprises with certain strength to invest and set up factories in developing countries to promote the export of related technologies, equipment and services.
-Accelerate the development of producer services and provide strong support for foreign trade exports. Accelerate the development of science and technology service industry, give full play to its R&D, technology promotion and other strengths, improve the scientific and technological content and added value of existing products, and constantly develop new products to enter the international market. Improve the international logistics network and customs clearance construction, provide convenience for foreign trade export enterprises, reduce logistics costs and improve logistics efficiency. Strengthen the construction of trade associations, standardize the competition order within the industry, carry out information tracking, timely reflect the damage information that is unfavorable to the industry, and improve the monitoring and early warning mechanism.
-improve the service level of the government and minimize the negative impact of policy adjustment. Foreign trade, customs, inspection and quarantine, commodity inspection and other government service agencies should cooperate closely to provide enterprises with fast customs declaration channels; Create a development environment, make good use of relevant state encouragement policies, and increase support for enterprises to import resource-based raw materials and advanced technology and equipment. In view of the development of foreign trade economy in underdeveloped areas, we should pay attention to promoting the development of foreign trade economy in underdeveloped areas under the condition of conforming to WTO rules.
It can be seen that the adjustment of export tax rebate is a "double-edged sword". From the perspective of the adjustment structure of export products, it is conducive to accelerating the integration and restructuring of China's industrial chain; From the perspective of market integration at home and abroad, the price difference at home and abroad is further reduced, which makes the international market competition more intense. Therefore, it is imperative that we keep a clear head and grasp the adjustment degree of export tax rebate policy, so that China's economic and trade development will stand in the world.