Abstract: Financial evaluation is a very important part of power grid construction project evaluation, which is directly related to the success or failure of power grid construction project decision. Adopting scientific and operable financial evaluation methods is an important problem to be solved urgently in project investment evaluation. This paper briefly introduces the meaning of financial evaluation, and through the analysis and calculation of actual cases, analyzes and explains the financial evaluation methods of power grid construction projects, which provides relevant basis for the in-depth discussion and practical application of financial evaluation of power grid construction projects.

Power grid construction projects; Financial evaluation; Internal rate of return; Net present value; Payback period of investment; Electricity price rise

With the deepening of power system reform and the separation of power plant and power grid, the internal and external market environment faced by power grid enterprises has undergone major changes, and the operating cost of power grid has been rising. In this severe business environment, doing a good job in financial evaluation of power grid construction projects is particularly important for comprehensively improving the management level of power grid projects, realizing scientific investment decisions and improving the economic benefits of investment projects.

First, the characteristics of power grid construction projects

Power grid is an important carrier of power supply, which is related to the national economy and people's livelihood and social stability, and plays an important role in safeguarding national economic and social development, promoting industrial structure adjustment and optimizing resource allocation. Electric power construction projects have the general characteristics of other construction projects and also have their own characteristics.

(A) the scale of investment is large

As one of the key points of national infrastructure construction, power grid construction project has the characteristics of large investment scale and high project cost. Take Guangdong Power Grid as an example. During the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, Guangdong Power Grid plans to invest 654.38+0.96 billion yuan for power grid construction and transformation, and strive to build a modern large power grid within five years. The investment increased by 29% compared with 654.38+0.510.50 billion yuan during the 11th Five-Year Plan period. At that time,16996kVA and 27246km transmission lines will be added.

At the same time, the production capacity of power grid enterprises is very expensive. For example, the cost per kilometer of 500 kV transmission lines is about 6.5438+0.45 million yuan.

(2) Long construction period

Power grid construction projects have a large amount of work, which generally takes several years to build. Due to the long construction period, long investment duration and the gradual recovery of funds during the operation period after the completion of construction, the investment in power grid construction projects is relatively slow. In addition, due to the different values of equivalent funds in different years, power grid construction projects should bear risks such as inflation and capital depreciation at the same time.

(C) poor investment substitution

Power grid construction project investment is an investment in power grid in a certain period of time, and it is a fixed asset of power grid formed in a specific location. This investment mode and characteristics determine that power grid construction projects are not as flexible and transferable as other investment activities. Once an investment error is found, the ability to adjust investment behavior in the short term is relatively poor, or the investment substitution is poor. It is difficult to make up for the mistakes in investment by other methods, and it is also difficult to transfer the fixed assets and production capacity formed by investment to other uses.

Second, the definition and principles of financial evaluation

(A) the definition of financial evaluation

Financial evaluation is to analyze and calculate the direct financial benefits and costs of construction projects, prepare financial statements, calculate evaluation indicators, and investigate the profitability, liquidity and foreign exchange balance of the project according to the current national fiscal and taxation system and price system, so as to judge the feasibility of the project. The financial evaluation of power grid construction project is the core work in the feasibility study of the project, which provides an important basis for investigating the economic effect of power grid construction project investment, making appropriate capital plan and coordinating the interests between the state and enterprises. The content mainly includes profitability analysis, solvency analysis, foreign exchange balance analysis and uncertainty analysis.

(B) the principles of financial evaluation

At present, there are some limitations in the financial evaluation methods of power grid construction projects at home and abroad. In order to eliminate the adverse impact of this restriction on the evaluation results, the following principles should be followed when making financial evaluation of the project.

1. Principle of objectivity

Objectivity is the evaluation thought of seeking truth from facts. Power grid construction projects have their own laws and inherent characteristics. It is necessary to objectively analyze the situation faced by power grid construction projects, investigate and predict the future financing structure, cost composition and power supply capacity of the projects realistically, and avoid subjective judgment of "slapping the head".

2. Practical principles

The indicators and methods of financial evaluation of power grid construction projects must be practical. The index data has clear meaning, can be obtained and can be accurately measured, which is convenient for analyzing and comparing the investment benefits of power grid; The evaluation method is convenient for practical application and has strong operability, and the evaluation results can scientifically guide the investment decision of power grid construction.

3. Scientific principles

We should use scientific index system and scientific evaluation method to analyze and demonstrate power grid construction projects, instead of using our own standards to evaluate projects. The scientificity here includes the scientific risk analysis of power grid construction projects. People often lose their minds in the face of projects that may gain huge benefits, while ignoring the internal and external risks of the projects.

4. Efficiency principle

For investors, efficiency is income. Once there is a good power grid construction project, it is necessary to analyze and demonstrate it in time. Therefore, the financial evaluation of power grid construction projects should follow the principle of efficiency and strive to be timely, accurate and fast, so that decision makers can make decisions as soon as possible and the project can start as soon as possible.

Three, the power grid construction project financial evaluation method and case analysis

(A) the power grid construction project financial evaluation method

The financial evaluation of power grid construction projects is highly technical, complex and difficult. On the basis of compiling capital cash flow statement and total investment cash flow statement, the financial internal rate of return, financial net present value and investment payback period of capital and total investment are calculated respectively, and correct financial decisions are made through the analysis of indicators.

(B) examples of financial evaluation of power grid construction projects

Taking the financial evaluation of the 220kv Kang Jun power transmission and transformation project of Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau as an example, this paper calculates and analyzes the financial indicators such as financial net present value, financial internal rate of return, investment payback period, and electricity price increase.

1. Raw data

The investment in the feasibility study of Kang Jun power transmission and transformation project is estimated to be 226.38 million yuan, of which 30% is the project capital, and the other 70% is the domestic bank loan, with the loan interest rate of 5.94%. The construction period is from 2007 to 2009, with 30% investment in the first and second years and 40% investment in the third year. The residual value rate of fixed assets is 5%, and the straight-line depreciation method is adopted for the depreciation of fixed assets, and the depreciation period is 25 years.

2. Hypothetical conditions

(1) investment conditions: the capital invested during the construction period is invested in the same proportion as the bank loan every year.

(2) Loan conditions: according to the loan situation this year, the bank loan will be repaid in equal amount every month.

(3) Operation period: The power grid construction and operation period is 25 years.

(4) Loan grace period: the construction period is a grace period, and the loan interest during the construction period is included in the total investment.

(5) Loan repayment period: the repayment period is equal to the operating period.

(6) Repayment conditions: repay all the loan principal and interest in a balanced way during the operation period, and repay the loan principal and interest in an equal amount every year.

(7) Depreciation method of fixed assets: average life method.

(8) Depreciation period: the depreciation period is equal to the operating period.

(9) Estimated net salvage value of fixed assets: 5% of the original value.

(10) Operating cost: 2% of the original value of fixed assets.

3. Calculation process

(1) Calculate the financing amount of each year during the construction period.

According to the basic data, the static total investment D = 2,263,800 yuan, the construction period n=3 years, the annual investment ratio f 1=30%, f2=30%, f3=40%, the loan ratio g=70%, and the loan interest rate i=5.94%, then:

The static investment in the first year of the construction period is d1= d * f1= 22638 * 30% = 6791(ten thousand yuan). By analogy, the static investment in the second year and the third year is 6.79110,000 yuan and 90.56 million yuan respectively, totaling 226.38 million yuan.

The loan principal in the first year of the construction period is b1= d1* g = 6791* 70% = 4 754 (ten thousand yuan), the loan principal in the second year is 47.54 million yuan, and the loan principal in the third year is 63.39 million yuan, totaling15844.

The loan interest in the first year of the construction period is L1= B1/2 * I =14110,000 yuan, and the loan interest in the second and third years is 4.32 million yuan and 7.87 million yuan respectively, totaling130,000 yuan.

Capital in current year of construction period = static investment in current year *( 1-70%)

Dynamic investment in construction year = static investment in construction year+loan interest in construction year.

According to the above formulas and results, we can draw the following conclusions:

The amount of funds raised each year during the construction period = capital+financing amount (loan principal and interest)

That is, the amount of funds raised during the three-year construction period is 69.32 million yuan, 72.23 million yuan and 98.43 million yuan respectively, totaling 239.98 million yuan.

(2) Calculate the amount of interest owed at the end of each operation period and the interest and principal returned at the end of each operation period.

Known:

Original value of fixed assets g= total static investment of the project d+ loan interest during construction l=22 638+ 1 360=23 998 (ten thousand yuan).

Debt at the beginning of the first year of the operation period p 1= loan principal b+ interest l =15847+1360 =17207 (ten thousand yuan)

Then:

First, the calculation of depreciation Z in each year during the operation period. Annual depreciation rate =( 1- estimated net residual value)/depreciation period =3.8%, annual depreciation z= original value of fixed assets * annual depreciation rate = 965,438+200,000 yuan, residual value of fixed assets = original value of fixed assets * residual value rate = 654,38+200,000 yuan.

Second, the calculation of the principal and interest to be repaid in equal amount at the end of each year during the operation period and E is as follows:

The calculation period includes the construction period of 3 years and the operation period of 25 years, totaling 28 years. The repayment period includes the construction period of 3 years ***28 years, and the loan is actually paid off within the operation period of 25 years. Repayment is made by matching principal and interest, with interest entering financial expenses, depreciation being used to repay principal, and the insufficient part being repaid by after-tax profits.

According to the present value formula of equal payment: the debt at the beginning of the year is P, and the principal and interest should be paid in equal amount within 25 years, then:

a=p

It is known that i=5.94%, n=25, the equal repayment coefficient is 0.07778 1, the debt at the beginning of the first year of the operation period is p =17207,000 yuan, and the equal repayment of principal and interest during the 25-year operation period is e =17207 * 0.

According to the previous calculation, the principal owed at the beginning of the first year of the operation period is158.47 million yuan, and the interest owed at the beginning is13.6 million yuan, so the total liabilities at the beginning of the year are172.07 million yuan, and the interest owed at the end of the year = total liabilities at the beginning of the year * bank loan interest rate I =172.07 million yuan. Therefore, this year's repayment of RMB 6,543,800+033,800 is used to repay interest, and the principal has not been returned. By analogy, and according to the formula: debt at the beginning of year T = debt at the beginning of last year+interest owed at the end of last year-principal and interest repaid at the end of last year, interest owed at the beginning of year T = interest owed at the beginning of last year+interest paid at the end of last year, it can be calculated that the amount of interest owed at the end of each operating period is 6,543,802,200 yuan and 6,543,800,300 yuan ... During the operation period, the principal returned at the end of each year is 294,000 yuan ...1.91.10 million respectively.

Third, calculate the total cost of each year during the operation period. Annual depreciation expense of fixed assets during the operating period = 965,438+200,000 yuan, financial expense = interest paid at the end of the year, operating cost = original value of fixed assets * average operating cost rate = 23,998 * 2% = 4,799,600 yuan, so the total cost of each year during the operating period = depreciation expense of fixed assets+financial expense+years.

(3) Prepare "income statement", "cash flow statement" (capital) and "cash flow statement" (total investment)

The total annual cost ct(t= 1, 2,3, …, m) is known during the operation period.

Calculation process:

Based on the beginning of the construction period (n years), the total cost ct of each year in the operation period is converted into the present value cxt of the current base period. According to the present value formula of one-time payment, cxt =.

2. Calculate the total present value of the annual total cost in the operating period (m years), where cxo = cxt = 23,856,5438+0.92 (ten thousand yuan).

Thirdly, the total present value cxo of the total cost of each year is amortized in the operating period of m years, and the amortized total cost c of each year in the operating period is calculated. According to the fund recovery formula of equal installment payment:

c = cxo = 23 85 1.92 * 0.07778 1 = 1855.24

(ten thousand yuan).

Fourthly, according to the amortized total cost C and the set cost profit rate f0(fo= sales profit/total cost), calculate the amortized annual sales profit f=c×f0 during the project's M-year operation period.

Fifth, calculate the annual sales revenue R.

Formula derivation:

Assuming that the sales revenue during the operation period is R, the sales tax and surcharge is J, the total cost is C, the sales profit is F, the value-added tax rate is f 1, the urban construction and maintenance surcharge rate is f2, and the education surcharge rate is f3, then: f=r-j-c, J = r=×c F 1 × (65438).

It is known that f 1= 17%, f2=7%, f3=3%, and c= 1855.24 (ten thousand yuan). When f0 is 40%, r=3 194.76 (ten thousand yuan) is obtained.

According to the expected sales revenue R, the income statement and cash flow statement are compiled, and the internal rate of return on capital is calculated according to the cash flow statement. It is concluded that when the sales revenue R = 3 654.38+0 947.6 million yuan/year, the internal rate of return on capital is 4.5%, which is less than the industry benchmark rate of return of 8%.

Substituting the cost profit rate into the formula according to 50%, 70% and 80%, the corresponding sales income is 34,229,500 yuan, 38,793,500 yuan and 4 1.0754 million yuan respectively. According to the corresponding sales revenue, the "income statement" and "cash flow statement" are compiled respectively to calculate the internal rate of return on capital corresponding to sales revenue. Finally, when the cost profit rate f0*=70%, the sales revenue R * = 38,793,500 yuan, and the corresponding internal rate of return =8.09%, which is close to the industry benchmark rate of return of 8%.

Sixth, according to the calculated sales revenue r*, the income statement, cash flow statement (capital) and cash flow statement (total investment) can be compiled respectively.

(4) Calculate the financial evaluation index according to the "cash flow statement"

1) static payback period

tp=t- 1+

2) npv= cumulative present value of net cash flow in the operating period of M year in the table.

3) Internal rate of return

According to the economic formula, set two close discount rates im and in to make NPV (IM) >; 0，NPV(in)& lt； 0, using linear interpolation method to determine the internal rate of return calculation formula is as follows:

irr=im+

According to the above formula and cash flow statement (capital), the static payback period of capital investment is 12.35 years, the net present value of capital is 2352.9 1 10,000 yuan, and the internal rate of return of capital is 8.09%.

According to the above formula and cash flow statement (total investment), the static payback period of the total investment is 9.93 years, the net present value of the total investment is 30.7395 million yuan, and the internal rate of return of the total investment is 6.63%.

Electricity price increase (RMB/kWh)

Known r * = 38,793,500 yuan. According to the electricity sales of Shenzhen Power Supply Bureau in recent three years, the average value is 56 billion kWh, and the electricity price increases by 0.0007 yuan/kWh.

4. Evaluation conclusion

The following conclusions can be drawn from various financial evaluation indicators:

The dynamic total investment of Kang Jun power transmission and transformation project is 239.98 million yuan, of which the capital investment is 679 1 10,000 yuan and the domestic bank loan is1584.7 million yuan. In order to recover the construction cost reasonably and realize the 8% internal rate of return on capital, the annual sales income needs to be 38.7935 million yuan during the 25-year operation period. When the sales revenue of that year was 38.7935 million yuan, the financial internal rate of return of all investments was 6.63%, the financial net present value was 30.7395 million yuan, and the payback period of investment was 6.5438+0.23 million yuan. Moreover, the annual sales electricity during the operation period is 56 billion kWh. After the project is completed and put into production, the principle of adjusting the sales electricity price is to increase 0.0007 yuan per kWh.

Four. Suggestions on financial evaluation of power grid construction projects

The financial evaluation of power grid construction projects plays an important role in strengthening macro-control of fixed assets investment, improving the scientific level of investment decision-making, guiding and promoting the rational allocation of various resources, optimizing investment structure, reducing and avoiding investment risks, and giving full play to investment benefits. In the process of financial evaluation of power grid construction projects, the following aspects should be grasped:

(A) to strengthen the investment benefit forecast, reduce decision-making mistakes.

Investment in power grid construction projects aims at maximizing economic and social benefits. Any blindness or mistake in investment decision-making may bring great losses to power grid enterprises. Therefore, we should strengthen the economic benefit prediction of investment projects, reduce decision-making mistakes, and improve the correctness of investment decisions of power grid construction projects as much as possible.

(2) Strengthen macro-management and improve investment efficiency.

Power grid construction projects have the characteristics of long construction period, large investment, involving many departments, and large influence scope, which has a great impact on regional and even national economic and social development. Therefore, strengthening the macro-management of investment and improving the investment benefit of specific construction projects are conducive to guiding the investment direction, controlling the investment scale, adjusting the investment structure and improving the macro-benefit of projects.

(3) Fully evaluate various factors to adapt to market changes.

With the gradual establishment and improvement of China's market economy system, various reform measures have been introduced one after another, which makes more and more uncertain factors in investment projects, such as price changes of building materials and equipment, adjustment of fiscal and taxation policies, etc. , so that the actual situation of the project may deviate from the predicted situation. This requires that all kinds of uncertain factors should be fully considered and the internal and external market environment should be carefully analyzed to ensure the reliability and rationality of financial evaluation.

(four) actively seek state support and provide support basis.

When the financial evaluation conclusion of some power grid construction projects is not feasible, but the projects are in urgent need of regional development, in order to make the projects economically feasible, we can apply for economic support from the state. At this time, the financial evaluation of the project can provide decision-making basis for the determination of national support methods and preferential margins.

refer to

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[3] Huang Baojun, Shi Jingnan. Research on Economic Evaluation Method of Power Grid Construction Project [J]. Electric Power Construction, 2003(2).

[4] Huang Shengquan. Project evaluation index-expansion of net present value [J]. Research on Technical Economy and Management, 200 1(6).

[5] Gao Junqiang. On the problems that should be paid attention to in the economic evaluation of investment projects [J]. Science and Technology Entrepreneurship Weekly, 2006(2).