The expansion of the logistics industry depends on the speed of national economic development. From 2000 to 2009, China's GDP grew at an average annual rate of 10.4%, and the total social logistics and the added value of the logistics industry increased at an average annual rate of 210.2% and 14.4% respectively. Judging from the performance in the first half of 20 10, there should be no problem in achieving the expected growth target of 8% for the whole year. According to the general law that GDP and total social logistics are1:3, considering all factors, the total social logistics in China is expected to increase by about 20% in 20 10, and the added value of the logistics industry is expected to increase by about 10%, so the ratio of total social logistics expenses to GDP may remain at 18%.
China's logistics industry has experienced continuous high-speed growth for more than 30 years. The total amount has reached a considerable scale, but the pattern of extensive management has not fundamentally changed. The growth of economic aggregate and the transformation of development mode not only directly promote the scale expansion of logistics industry, but also require structural adjustment and quality improvement. For example, the adjustment and revitalization of key industries need to upgrade and transform logistics and supply chain systems; To accelerate the development of service industry, it is necessary to establish and improve the modern logistics service system; To fight the tough battle of energy conservation and emission reduction, the logistics industry is the focus; Promoting the coordinated development of regional economy will inevitably bring about profound changes in the logistics pattern. Therefore, the demand structure, regional structure, industry structure, variety structure, enterprise structure and service structure of the logistics industry will accelerate the pace of adjustment, and the requirements for logistics service quality will be further improved.
Second, the trend of socialization and specialization of industrial logistics
Industrial logistics, such as manufacturing, circulation and agriculture, plays a decisive role in the development of logistics industry and is undergoing profound changes.
The trend of integration, separation and outsourcing of manufacturing logistics. Most industries in China's manufacturing industry are facing the contradiction between insufficient demand and overcapacity, which brings pressure and motivation for manufacturing enterprises to integrate logistics resources, separate outsourcing logistics business and upgrade and transform logistics systems. More and more manufacturing enterprises abandon the mode of "big and complete" and "small and complete" and begin to attach importance to the integration of logistics functions from a strategic perspective. The industries that separate the outsourcing logistics business have expanded upstream from household appliances, electronics, fast-moving consumer goods and automobiles in previous years to steel, coal and building materials. Manufacturing enterprises put forward high-end logistics service demand for logistics service providers, requiring logistics enterprises to provide professional, customized and integrated supply chain solutions.
The trend of logistics promotion, transformation and diversion in circulation industry. Different formats of circulation industry need different logistics service modes. For example, the traditional wholesale market needs to increase logistics functions such as storage, processing, distribution and online trading; Large chain retail enterprises are building their own logistics systems and strengthening their core competitiveness; Relying on the network and other companies without store sales, more logistics business is entrusted to professional logistics enterprises; Specialized logistics needs such as tobacco, medicine, dangerous chemicals, cold chain, etc. will also rely more on professional logistics enterprises to complete.
The trend of two-way, centralized and docking of agricultural logistics. China is a big agricultural country, and agriculture and rural logistics have broad market space. Agricultural products entering the city, agricultural materials and daily industrial products going to the countryside require the establishment of a rural logistics service system that connects urban and rural areas and is smooth in both directions. The trend of organization and centralization of agricultural products trading is obvious. Among the 35 electronic trading markets newly opened in 2009, 2 1 market is located in the field of agricultural products. Shandong Shouguang Vegetable Wholesale Market has become the largest vegetable distribution center, price formation center, information exchange center and logistics distribution center in China, attracting vegetables from more than 20 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions to trade here. Driven by the Ministry of Commerce, supermarkets directly connect with agricultural production bases, reducing intermediate links and bringing benefits to farmers and urban consumers. At present, the agricultural supermarket docking has been piloted in 24 provinces and cities.
Third, the trend of segmentation and personalization of logistics enterprises
With the change of industrial logistics demand, the professional segmentation speed of logistics market is accelerated. This requires specialized division of labor and refined service of logistics enterprises.
According to the service mode, logistics enterprises can be divided into the following three categories: First, general service. For example, warehousing, transportation, freight forwarding, express delivery and other enterprises provide "one-to-many" services in a standardized mode. The second is the professional supporting type. This kind of enterprise embeds its business into a certain kind of professional industry or enterprise's supply chain to provide "one-on-one" customized services. Such as cold chain logistics, automobile logistics, steel logistics, etc., mainly rely on unique and irreplaceable personalized services, and become an important part of the supply chain of production or circulation enterprises. The third is the basic platform type. Such enterprises themselves do not do specific logistics business, but provide necessary conditions for the operation of logistics enterprises, such as logistics parks (bases) and logistics information service providers.
Logistics enterprises will improve their market concentration through reorganization and alliance. Generally speaking, general services and traditional transportation and warehousing services are obviously in excess of demand; However, the integrated service of supply chain and personalized service that can meet the needs of special enterprises are seriously insufficient. From the development trend, professional logistics services that can meet the needs of enterprise professional production and refined services that meet the needs of lean production, and related value-added services derived from logistics will gain greater development space; However, the logistics business space that lacks professional characteristics and is simple and extensive will be further narrowed. The speed of reorganization and reshuffle of logistics enterprises will be further accelerated, thus promoting the improvement of logistics market concentration.
Four, the logistics market competition intensified, the trend of increasing business risks
On the one hand, China's logistics demand side is constrained by the "big and complete" and "small and complete" models, and a large number of self-operated logistics cannot turn to socialization; On the other hand, the logistics suppliers are scattered, small, poor and weak, and the logistics market is divided. Coupled with the emergence of many new uncertainties in the market, the competition in China's logistics market has intensified, and the trend of increasing risks will continue.
The full entry of foreign logistics enterprises has brought impact to China market. At present, foreign logistics enterprises have taken advantage of international express delivery, maritime transportation and logistics real estate. At the same time, international capital is optimistic about China logistics enterprises, and M&A events have occurred in succession. After years of development, domestic private logistics enterprises have encountered a "ceiling" for further improvement, and some are willing to sell their own logistics enterprises and switch to other industries.
The domestic logistics industry has numerous business entities. Take highway transportation as an example, there are 6.32 million business entities in China, and each entity has less than two vehicles on average, and more than 90% of them are "one car per household". However, there is a serious surplus of highway transportation capacity, and operators compete to lower prices in order to survive, which further intensifies market competition.
All kinds of logistics resources are in short supply. Land prices have doubled, and oil prices have entered an upward channel, making it more difficult for SMEs to raise funds. In particular, the rising labor cost caused by the "salary increase tide" has a great impact on labor-intensive logistics enterprises. Because the situation of oversupply is difficult to fundamentally change, the pressure of operating costs cannot be transmitted to the market and users, and the profit space of logistics enterprises will become smaller and smaller.
Five, the trend of regional logistics transfer and agglomeration
In recent years, the State Council has intensively approved the regional economic development plan that has been upgraded to a national strategy, and intensified the overall coordination of regional economy. The overall strategies such as the development of the western region, the development of the eastern region, the rise of the central region, and the revitalization of the northeast, as well as "Harbin (Erbin), Daqing (Celebration), Qihar (Qi)", "Changsha (Sand), Zhuzhou (Hunan) and Xiangtan", "Guangzhou (State) and Foshan (Mountain) are the same city" and "Zheng (.
The pace of industrial transfer driven by market resource elements has accelerated. Excessive labor costs have promoted the gradient transfer of many industries from east to west. Enterprises would rather bear relatively high logistics costs and avoid higher labor costs. In the central and western regions, the logistics foundation is relatively weak, and the construction of logistics service system needed to adapt to industrial transfer will be accelerated.
Urbanization brings logistics agglomeration. China is entering the period of accelerating urbanization, and about10 million people enter cities from rural areas every year. The logistics services that farmers need to enter cities and towns are not the same as the original self-sufficient small-scale peasant economy, which will inevitably lead to a new round of logistics demand change.
Six, the logistics infrastructure to step up construction and the trend of coordinated diversion.
The construction of railways, public utilities and machinery has developed beyond the norm. In 2009, the national railway investment in capital construction was 600 billion yuan, exceeding the sum of the Ninth Five-Year Plan and the Tenth Five-Year Plan, with a mileage of 86,000 kilometers, ranking second in the world. In the whole year, the investment in fixed assets of highway, waterway and civil aviation was completed 1. 13 trillion yuan, up by 3 1% year-on-year. By the end of the year, the total mileage of expressways has reached 65,000 kilometers, ranking second in the world.
The new pattern of infrastructure construction has a profound impact on the logistics industry. Due to the country's increased investment in infrastructure, the formation of an integrated transportation system has been accelerated. A number of passenger dedicated lines have been completed and put into use, and the railway capacity will be released quickly, creating conditions for passenger and cargo separation. With the gradual formation of expressway network, the road transportation pattern will be adjusted. The function of highway for railway and water transportation is further manifested, and the intermodal and transshipment hubs connected by various modes of transportation are facing a new layout.
Seven, the trend of logistics and financial services
Logistics finance refers to a series of business activities that face the whole process of logistics operation, apply various financial products, effectively integrate logistics, capital flow and information flow, organize and adjust the movement of monetary funds in the process of supply chain operation, and thus improve the efficiency of capital operation. Logistics finance is an objective need for the development of banks and their customers, and it is also one of the main contents for logistics enterprises to provide logistics value-added services.
Domestic logistics finance business is in the ascendant. For example, China Material Storage and Transportation Corporation has successively established cooperative relations with more than a dozen financial institutions, providing warehouse receipt pledge financing supervision business for more than 500 customers, and mortgage products involve ferrous metal materials, non-ferrous metal materials, building materials, food, household appliances, automobiles, paper, coal, chemicals and many other types. Cosco Logistics began to explore logistics finance business in 2006, and successively signed framework agreements with domestic 14 banks. At present, the total number of development projects has reached more than 300. On the basis of warehouse receipt pledge and confirmed warehouse, the business model creates the operation mode of land and sea warehouse. That is, the bank opens a letter of credit for the importer to buy goods from foreign manufacturers, and the importer pays a certain percentage of the deposit, and the rest is pledged by the ownership of the imported goods.
The business model of logistics finance is constantly being developed and applied. Such as payment collection, advance payment, warehouse receipt pledge financing supervision, confirmed warehouse business, logistics factoring mode and supply chain finance business. For example, Zhejiang Property Group uses the supply chain financial service model to maintain the normal operation of the shipyard and find a safe channel for bank funds, and it has also achieved multiple benefits through various services. The organic integration and joint development of logistics industry and financial industry has posed new challenges to the traditional business model. While constantly exploring new space for development, we should also pay attention to avoiding and preventing the resulting business risks.
Eight, the trend of "two-way development" of international logistics
There is a new trend for foreign enterprises to acquire China logistics enterprises through the capital market. On February 4th, 2009, DHL, a sinotrans company, acquired 0/00% equity of Quanyi Express/KLOC-0 for 300 million yuan. On July 7th of the same year, DHL, a subsidiary of DHL, once again set up a joint venture company to acquire all the shares of Sinotrans Express Company in Beijing under Sinotrans Air Transport Development Co., Ltd. for 46 million yuan. 20 10 On May 24th, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Mitsui & Co., Ltd. obtained 38.33% equity of Jinjiang Cryogenic held by the company and 5% equity of Jinjiang Cryogenic held by Shanghai Jinjiang Automobile Service Co., Ltd.
Domestic enterprises are also taking the step of "going out". Cosco Logistics has made its mark in international large-scale transportation business, exhibition logistics and other aspects, and contracted the whole logistics business of Airbus. SF Express is exploring the opening of outlets in neighboring countries and starting to lay out international logistics networks. Some domestic logistics enterprises provide logistics services for "going out" manufacturing enterprises. According to the commitment of China-Africa cooperation, China will build a logistics center in Africa. But overall, the pace of "going out" of China's logistics services is not fast. Most imported goods are "CIF"; Most of the export commodities are "FOB", and our ability to control international logistics is poor. China has experienced a service trade deficit for 18 years, in which the logistics trade deficit accounts for a large proportion.
Nine, low-carbon economy "forced" the development trend of green logistics
Climate change is a major challenge facing the world today. Curbing climate warming and saving the earth's homeland is the mission of all mankind. Our government has made a solemn commitment to this end. By 2020, the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP will be reduced by 40%~45% compared with 2005, and the emission reduction target will be incorporated into the medium-and long-term planning of national economic and social development as a binding indicator.
Logistics industry is the key industry of energy consumption, and the task of energy saving and emission reduction is quite arduous. We must bid farewell to the logistics operation mode with high energy consumption and high emission as soon as possible, and do everything possible to reduce the pressure of logistics operation on resources and environment. There are several tasks that can be done first. For example, choose energy-saving and environment-friendly vehicles, increase subsidies for enterprises to replace vehicles, and eliminate old cars within a time limit; Carry out fuel-saving training for drivers and reward drivers with some savings; Strengthen the construction of public logistics information platform, optimize transportation organization and reduce the waste of empty driving; Formulate the industry standard of bridge container and actively promote the transportation of throwing and hanging; Allow mid-axle trailer trains to run on the expressway to improve the running efficiency of freight cars; Strengthen the planning and construction of intermodal transshipment facilities, the docking of information systems and the coordination of management systems to promote the development of multimodal transport; Study and put forward the feasibility of solar power generation on the roof of warehouse entering the unified power grid, formulate preferential policies, and urge enterprises to spontaneously produce and use clean energy; Strengthen the inspection and evaluation of green logistics in logistics parks and enterprises, and use policy leverage to mobilize the enthusiasm of enterprises for energy conservation and environmental protection.
Ten, the trend of combining logistics policy incentives and norms.
After the introduction of the Logistics Industry Adjustment and Revitalization Plan, governments at all levels have paid unprecedented attention to the logistics industry. The central government has established and improved the coordination mechanism, strengthened investigation and research, and all relevant departments have taken the initiative to care about the development of the logistics industry. In 2009, State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China announced the list of the fifth batch of pilot logistics enterprises (Guo Shui Han [2009] No.663), and made it clear that 93 logistics enterprises were included in the pilot scope. Since 2005, State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China has confirmed that five batches of 487 logistics enterprises have been included in the pilot scope of business tax difference tax payment, and the sixth batch of more than 200 pilot enterprises are under review. The Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China issued the Notice of the Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China on Exemption from Business Tax for International Transport Services (Caishui [2010] No.8). The Ministry of Transport and other five departments issued (Jiao Yun Fa [2009] No.808) the Notice on Promoting the Development of Drop-and-Hang Transportation, and the Office of the Inter-Ministerial Joint Conference on National Modern Logistics put forward the Opinions on Promoting the Linkage Development of Manufacturing Industry and Logistics Industry, and various logistics industry special plans began to be formulated. The relevant ministries and commissions of the state set up special funds for the implementation of the Plan to support the development of the logistics industry. At the provincial, provincial and municipal levels, a leadership and coordination mechanism was generally established, and "implementation rules" were formulated. Most cities and some counties and districts began to plan the development of the local logistics industry.
Some normative and binding policies and regulations have been implemented. The revised Postal Law came into effect on June 1 2009, which stipulated the entry threshold for the establishment of express delivery enterprises. The Food Safety Law came into effect on June 1 2009, which put forward requirements for food logistics enterprises. 20 10 On April 22nd, the State Post Bureau issued the Notice on Strengthening the Business Management of Express Delivery Enterprises in payment collection to strengthen the management of payment collection. The Ministry of Public Security and other departments are drafting the Notice on Further Strengthening Drug Control, Source Blocking and Interception in Logistics and Delivery Channels, requiring logistics enterprises to assist in drug control.