The specific content of "3.30" New Deal refers to: At 4: 58 pm on March 30th, 20th15th, the People's Bank of China, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the China Banking Regulatory Commission jointly issued the Notice on Issues Related to Individual Housing Loan Policy, which adjusted the minimum down payment ratio for second homes to not less than 40%. No one expected that the government would use such great efforts to stimulate the property market before. Only 10 minutes later, the Ministry of Finance of People's Republic of China (PRC) and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China jointly released a message, saying that starting from March1year, the business tax exemption period for individual housing transfer will be reduced from more than 5 years (including 5 years) to more than 2 years (including 2 years).
Why Shenzhen?
Among the four first-tier cities in the north, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, the crazy rise of Shenzhen property market is particularly striking.
Since the end of April, the Shenzhen property market has heated up sharply. Developers have entered the market, and buyers are scrambling to seize the opportunity. The property market has gone up in volume and price. House prices in Nanshan District, Shenzhen, with the highest increase, rose by 85% year-on-year. Strong demand and soaring prices have also triggered frequent breaches of contracts by second-hand housing owners, and the situation of breaking contracts has been increasing, even causing litigation disputes.
According to the data of Ke Rui, a market organization, the price of first-hand housing in Shenzhen has been rising for three consecutive months since March this year. Especially in May, the price index of first-hand houses in Shenzhen rose by 2.2 1% from the previous month, and the price index of second-hand houses rose by 0.53% from the previous month. The second-hand housing market * * * sold13,378 sets, up 28% month-on-month and 18 1% year-on-year, setting a new high since March 20 13, close to the peak before the property market regulation in 20 10. In fact, since 20 14, the property market has been "9? Since the beginning of the "30" policy, housing prices in Shenzhen have risen for eight months. Shenzhen property market was crazy for a short time, and for a time, news such as "skyrocketing housing prices, rising prices of owners, and reappearance of Japanese CDs" frequently appeared in newspapers.
"3? Less than three months after the introduction of the "Article 30" New Deal, the price increase of second-hand houses in some key areas of Shenzhen has exceeded 50%.
What contributed to the skyrocketing property market in Shenzhen?
Industry analysts believe that the first is the surge in demand. The intensive introduction of the New Deal in the property market has given buyers a signal to "buy", the expectation of rising house prices in the market outlook and the consideration of "self-occupation+value-added" asset allocation have led to the aggregation effect of buyers' behavior, which is concentrated in the market.
Secondly, land is scarce. Compared with Beishangguang, Shenzhen is the first-tier city with the most serious land scarcity. Due to the total amount of land, the residential land market is in a state of "zero supply and zero transaction" all the year round, and the urban housing supply mainly depends on the "urban renewal" model of old city transformation. The shortage of land is transmitted to the housing market, which eventually leads to the shortage of housing supply. Therefore, the short-term "supply is less than demand" situation in Shenzhen market is particularly bad than other first-tier cities. In the case of a sharp increase in demand, it is difficult to keep up with the supply for a while, which is an important factor supporting the high price of Shenzhen property market. In the medium and long term, the imbalance between supply and demand caused by the increasing shortage of land resources will still be the main driving force for the further rise of Shenzhen property market.
Compared with Shenzhen, the three first-tier cities in Beishangguang are also under the background of the purchase restriction policy, but the supply and demand structure is relatively balanced. Judging from the destocking cycle, by the end of May, the inventory of commercial housing in Shenzhen was only enough to sell for about 6 months, while the destocking cycle of commercial housing in Shanghai and Beijing was 1 1 to 15 months.
Investors have shot again. "3? After the introduction of the "Article 30" New Deal, the down payment ratio was lowered, which lowered the threshold for investors to enter the market and increased the investment demand. Although Shenzhen's purchase restriction has not been loosened, investors can still curve into the market. Some foreign investors who are not qualified to buy through relatives and friends in Shenzhen. There are also fake divorces and buying a house in the name of the company to avoid the purchase restriction policy.
Third-and fourth-tier cities: the pressure of destocking is huge.
Although "3? After the "30" New Deal, the property market in first-tier cities showed a comprehensive recovery, but the policy stimulus had a positive impact on cities with better fundamentals, and the boosting effect on cities with oversupply was limited. " 3? The impact of the "30" New Deal on different cities is obviously different, and the response of third-and fourth-tier cities with worrying market supply and demand fundamentals to the policy is relatively cold, which shows that the transaction volume of third-and fourth-tier cities continues to decline.
The market differentiation between cities is obvious, and there are two completely different trends in the real estate market divided by first-and second-tier cities and third-and fourth-tier cities nationwide.
According to estimates, the average price of new commercial housing in first-tier cities rose by 1% in April, while the average price of new commercial housing in second-and third-tier cities fell by 0. 1% and 0.3%. According to the industry, the real estate market in many third-and fourth-tier cities is already saturated, and the price increase has been overdrawn.
Most of the third-and fourth-tier cities are facing a large amount of inventory, coupled with the imbalance of economic development, public resources, industrial layout, population and policy effects, the pressure of urbanization is enormous. Effectively resolving the real estate inventory requires not only the support of policies, but also the efforts of these cities to develop the regional economy and retain the population with spending power. At the same time, local governments should adjust measures to local conditions and guide the development of the real estate industry from the perspective of demand.
(The above answers were published on 20 15- 12-28. Please refer to the actual purchase policy. )
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