At the end of last year, the Central Economic Work Conference decided to continue to implement a series of policies and measures to promote development this year, adhere to the principle of expanding domestic demand, intensify the implementation of a proactive fiscal policy, further give play to the role of monetary policy, and comprehensively use various macro-control means. Judging from the current development trend of economic operation and the objective demand of economic operation, the orientation of China's macro policy this year will basically remain the orientation of expansion, and the intensity of expansion may be greater than last year. Specifically, China's macroeconomic policy this year will mainly reflect the following characteristics:
1. This year, we will continue to implement an expansionary macroeconomic policy based on a proactive fiscal policy.
Focusing on a proactive fiscal policy is the main feature of China's macroeconomic policy to expand demand and start economic growth. International experience shows that to stimulate economic growth through expansionary fiscal policy, we must maintain sufficient strength and continue to implement it until demand and prosperity rebound obviously. If you don't do enough or give up too early, you will lose all your efforts. Therefore, the proactive fiscal policy will not be interrupted until the new round of economic growth really starts. In view of the actual situation of 1999 economic operation and the objective needs of its development, China will still implement expansionary fiscal policy this year, and the expansion of fiscal policy may be greater than 1999. Its main measures will be reflected in the following aspects:
1. Continue to implement last year's policies and measures to adjust residents' income distribution, and will intensify the implementation of this policy, conscientiously and thoroughly implement policies and measures to promote "wage growth" and raise the level of "third-line" social security expenditure;
2. Further increase the export tax rebate rate, and increase the average export tax rebate rate from 15% to the level close to 17%, so as to increase the contribution of exports to economic growth;
We will continue to issue special treasury bonds to expand domestic demand, which may be larger than last year. The investment will focus on infrastructure, equipment investment and technological transformation investment in high-tech industries, as well as investment in some service areas that are in short supply. Investment methods include both direct financial investment and discount investment of loans needed for investment;
4, the implementation of fiscal policies to encourage investment, focusing on encouraging the growth of private investment. This year's fiscal policy is mainly reflected in two aspects: first, further reduction and exemption of fixed assets investment direction adjustment tax; The second is to reduce or exempt the income tax for expanding reproduction, including enterprise income tax and personal income tax;
5. Implement a fiscal policy to encourage consumption, which includes two options. First, the implementation of a special tax reduction policy, that is, a one-time reduction of personal income tax in the current specific period; The second is to give income tax refund to the private income of buying a house and a car.
Second, implement a monetary policy that is compatible with a proactive fiscal policy.
This year's monetary policy will reflect the characteristics of both positive and steady, focusing on increasing the money supply and promoting the liquidity of money.
Since last June165438+1October 2 1, the People's Bank of China has lowered the statutory deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions from 8% to 6%, and stipulated that all the available funds increased by the reduction of the statutory deposit reserve ratio should be used by commercial banks independently, creating favorable conditions for commercial banks to expand loans this year and preparing sufficient liquidity for the smooth transition of financial institutions to this year. Specifically, China's monetary policy this year will be mainly reflected in the following aspects:
In terms of loans, expand the cooperation between bank loans and financial expenditures, especially the matching ratio between bank loans and special treasury bonds issued; Increase the refinancing efforts of small and medium-sized financial institutions, give full play to the positive role of small and medium-sized financial institutions in supporting the development of small and medium-sized enterprises, and improve the financing environment of small and medium-sized enterprises;
In terms of financial innovation, we will increase the intensity of automobile consumption credit and housing consumption credit, actively carry out various mortgage and pledge loans, expand the scope of student loans, and simplify the procedures for the above loans;
In the coordination of monetary policy and fiscal policy, we should appropriately limit the proportion of China debt in the total assets of state-owned commercial banks, block the back roads of state-owned commercial banks, and force banks to actively strengthen credit services and actively issue loans to profitable and promising enterprises.
At the same time, the state will formulate corresponding policies, strengthen the transmission mechanism of monetary policy and the loan mechanism of commercial banks, improve and strengthen the incentive mechanism while strengthening the loan responsibility system, combine the risk restraint mechanism of banks with the profit incentive mechanism, encourage banks to lend, give full play to the enthusiasm of credit personnel, encourage credit personnel to go deep into enterprises and markets to investigate and pay attention, actively improve financial services, and better meet the social demand for financial services. Speed up the currency circulation in economic operation. In improving bank management, we will introduce and encourage competition among banks, put pressure on banks' profit motives from the outside, and promote commercial banks to adjust their internal asset structure by putting forward clear profit targets.
Third, the government's policy of guiding investment growth will be strengthened.
Since the third quarter of last year, the investment in fixed assets of the state-owned economy has been in a state of stagnation or even negative growth, and the stamina for national economic growth is obviously insufficient. However, in the current situation that the economy has not yet started, the growth of state-owned economic investment is the main driving force to promote the growth of private investment and household consumption, promote economic recovery and adjust prosperity expectations. Therefore, at the critical moment of economic start-up, the state will strengthen the investment policy of state-owned economy, ensure that the growth rate of state-owned economic investment this year exceeds that of last year, and lay a good foundation for a stable economic start-up. At present, the policy measures to expand investment this year will be mainly reflected in the following aspects: issuing special government bonds for economic construction to increase investment, developing capital market to expand the scale of direct financing, strengthening the policy of introducing foreign capital to expand foreign direct investment, increasing loans to small and medium-sized enterprises to stimulate the growth of private investment and improving the financing environment for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Fourth, strengthen the policy of attracting foreign direct investment.
Last year, China's foreign direct investment declined for the first time since the reform and opening up, which directly affected the growth rate of fixed assets investment 1999, which was lower than that of the previous year. At the same time, it will also affect the adjustment and upgrading of China's industrial structure in the future, and then affect the improvement of the international competitiveness of our products. Therefore, attracting foreign direct investment is not only conducive to starting the economy, but also of great practical significance to the sustained, rapid and healthy development of China's economy.
In view of the decline in the utilization of foreign capital in China last year and the increased competitiveness of Asian countries in attracting foreign capital after economic recovery, this year our government must take corresponding policies and measures in terms of laws, regulations, preferential policies and other soft environment for the utilization of foreign capital, and at the same time further relax the restrictions on foreign capital in some fields.
At present, China has relaxed restrictions on foreign investment in eight areas, including finance, insurance, investment companies, aviation, engineering companies, tourism and intermediary services. It is expected that foreign investment in these areas will increase substantially this year. At the end of last year, the central and local governments also introduced some further preferential policies for foreign investment, such as expanding the tax-free scope of imported equipment and its technology, accessories and spare parts when technological transformation is carried out for established encouraged and restricted foreign-invested enterprises, foreign-invested R&D centers, advanced technology-based and export-oriented foreign-invested enterprises; For foreign-invested enterprises that carry out technological transformation projects in line with national industrial policies and foreign-invested enterprises that produce high-tech products, the domestic equipment purchased by them can be credited with enterprise income tax according to relevant regulations; Foreign-invested enterprises that encourage or restrict the purchase of domestic equipment within the total investment can enjoy the preferential policy of full refund of value-added tax on domestic equipment if they meet the prescribed conditions; Business tax will no longer be levied on the technology transfer income obtained by foreign enterprises to China and foreign-invested enterprises; At the same time, in line with the development strategy of the large-scale development of the western region, the state has increased preferential treatment for foreign investment in the western region, such as relaxing the conditions for attracting foreign investment in the central and western regions, setting up foreign-invested enterprises, limiting the proportion of foreign shares, etc. For projects reinvested by domestic-funded foreign-invested enterprises in the central and western regions, if the proportion of foreign capital reaches more than 25%, they can enjoy the treatment of foreign-invested enterprises; For encouraged foreign-invested enterprises located in the central and western regions, enterprise income tax will be levied at a reduced rate of 15% within three years after the expiration of the current preferential tax policies. Judging from the development trend, this year, when implementing and refining the policies and measures to attract foreign investment, the intensity will increase with the specific situation. Therefore, the policy environment for attracting foreign investment will be further improved this year, and the downward trend of foreign direct investment will be reversed.
Verb (the abbreviation of verb) will intensify the reform of state-owned enterprises and further improve the development environment of state-owned enterprises.
The Fourth Plenary Session of the 15th CPC Central Committee held last year decided to speed up the reform of state-owned enterprises, and a series of related measures were introduced for this purpose, the most influential of which was the decision to convert state-owned enterprises into debts. At the same time, in 1999, the state took out more than15 billion yuan from the additional 60 billion yuan of special national debt as a loan interest subsidy for the technological transformation of state-owned enterprises, and last year implemented the seventh interest rate cut. These three measures are tangible benefits for state-owned enterprises and will create a good external environment for the reform and development of state-owned enterprises this year.
This year is the last year for the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council to extricate state-owned enterprises from difficulties in three years. Objectively, the state will intensify the reform and support of state-owned enterprises in order to basically solve or change the long-standing operational difficulties of state-owned enterprises. It should be said that since last year, under the action of a series of national reform measures (such as "managing five small businesses", limiting production and reducing warehouses, and pressing spindles in the textile industry) and macro-support policies and measures (such as using special government bonds issued in the past two years, which mainly benefit state-owned enterprises), the operating conditions of state-owned enterprises have improved, with the prominent sign of economic recovery. The economic benefits of key industries, key regions and key enterprises have obviously improved: in June last year,1-1,the total profits of state-owned and state-controlled enterprises reached 765 1 billion yuan, up by10/.25% year-on-year. Of the 3 1 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China, 26 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions have increased their profits and reduced their losses to varying degrees. Among them, there has been a major turnaround in the three northeastern provinces, and the profits of state-owned enterprises in Heilongjiang Province have doubled year-on-year; /kloc-0 At the end of 0/0, the state-owned enterprises in Liaoning Province ended their losses for several consecutive years. State-owned enterprises in Jilin Province began to turn losses after 45 months of losses. 1Of the 6,599 state-owned and state-controlled large and medium-sized enterprises that lost money at the end of 1997, more than 3,000 have turned losses or eliminated losses, and the goal of reducing the loss-making enterprises by one third for the whole year is expected to be exceeded.
This year, the focus of state-owned enterprise reform is to speed up the construction of modern enterprise system, generally carry out standardized corporate system reform in large and medium-sized state-owned backbone enterprises, and establish and improve corporate governance structure. Except for a few industries that must be monopolized by the state, large and medium-sized enterprises in competitive industries will be transformed into limited liability companies or joint-stock companies with multiple shares, and large enterprise groups will be transformed according to the parent-subsidiary system. Expanding direct financing channels is an important means for the reform and development of state-owned enterprises this year. In addition to continuing to do a good job in the debt-to-equity swap of state-owned enterprises, we will also focus on promoting overseas listing and financing of oil, petrochemical, Baosteel, aluminum and telecommunications enterprise groups, and at the same time promote the listing of qualified state-owned enterprises in the domestic securities market and appropriately increase the proportion of public shares. The focus of listing is to support large and medium-sized state-owned enterprises and enterprise groups, especially those that conform to the national industrial policy. State-owned assets will be reorganized through the securities market in a wider scope and at a faster speed, and the securities market will become an important tool for the reform of state-owned enterprises.
In order to stimulate the enthusiasm of managers of state-owned enterprises, the personal incentive mechanism will be expanded in state-owned enterprises this year, and the enthusiasm of long-term development of state-owned enterprises will be improved by rewarding managers with stock options, increasing annual salary and bonuses.
Accelerating the adjustment of industrial structure is one of the goals of the reform of state-owned enterprises this year. This year, the state will strengthen the total production control, eliminate backward production capacity, focus on strengthening the total production control of textile, coal, metallurgy, building materials, tobacco, light industry, nonferrous metals and other industries, and close the "five small enterprises" with serious pollution and waste of resources, so as to alleviate structural contradictions and relieve the pressure of oversupply.
Judging from the effect of policy measures, last year's interest rate reduction measures and technological transformation loan discount measures will greatly reduce the interest expenditure of state-owned enterprises this year, and at the same time stimulate state-owned enterprises to strengthen technological transformation of enterprises to adapt to the new market environment and improve their competitiveness; Debt-to-equity swap measures of state-owned enterprises will basically get rid of the serious debt burden of state-owned enterprises, reduce the pressure of debt repayment, greatly reduce the capital cost of state-owned enterprises and significantly improve the economic benefits of state-owned enterprises. After the implementation of debt-to-equity swap, creditors can supervise enterprises through the equity participation and holding of asset management companies, and can establish an effective restraint and incentive mechanism for management through restructuring indebted enterprises, completely change enterprise behavior, promote the transformation of enterprise management mechanism, and accelerate the establishment of modern enterprise system, which is not only conducive to the long-term development of enterprises, but also conducive to promoting the financing, restructuring and restructuring of state-owned enterprises. From the perspective of policy orientation, the intensity of fiscal policy will increase this year, and the funds used to discount loans for technological transformation of enterprises will also increase. After last year's preparations, debt-to-equity swaps will be fully implemented this year, and state-owned enterprises will gain huge tangible benefits from it, and their operating conditions will be further improved.
(Macro Division, Economic Forecasting Department, National Information Center)