China's 30-year reform and opening up has just reached a crossroads. Under this background, it is beneficial to China's future development to study and summarize the experiences and lessons of other countries' economic success or failure.
Facing the three mountains of "Latin American Trap", "Spanish Phantom" and "Japan-Korea Dilemma"
In order to meet the challenges of the future, history is a mirror. Throughout the modern history of the world, the rise of a powerful country and every social change and revival movement are all about grasping the important historical opportunity period, rapidly changing the industrial structure, scientific tradition and social operation mode, and formulating a series of strategic goals.
At present, the fourth wave of technological, economic and social changes has brought us not only economic and technological leaps, but also cultural and institutional changes. In view of this, the future scientist toffler shouted: "Humans are not only in transition, but also in transition; What we have to face is not only a new society, but the re-creation of a brand-new civilization. " In the next 10 year, China should guard against three mountains: Latin American Trap, Spanish Phantom and Japan-Korea Dilemma.
The "Latin American trap", also known as the "middle income trap", refers to the "take-off" of Latin American economy in the 1970s and 1980s, when a large number of farmers flocked to cities. However, due to the division policy implemented at that time, most people were blocked around the city, forming a unique shanty town residents who failed to integrate into the urban society. The polarization trend of income distribution gap is more and more obvious, and the whole social consumption has also appeared abnormal phenomenon. On the one hand, it is a prosperous modernization, on the other hand, it has produced so many poor people; With growth and no development, most people can't enjoy the fruits of modernization, and social unrest and development are stagnant. In response to the period of rapid urbanization, Latin American countries have deviated their social policies, failed to urbanize smoothly, and failed to solve the problem of farmers turning into citizens. A large number of farmers are reunited in cities, but they are not integrated into modern urban civilization, forming slums with various geographical divisions and ethnic divisions, which has become the source of various social problems in modern cities. The per capita income is blocked in the glass dome of $6,000, and they can't enjoy the fruits of modernization, which hinders the process of modernization and the continuous upgrading of society.
"Spanish phantom" means that wealth supported by power will eventually become a "phantom". 1521-1600 When Spain was powerful, 83% of the precious metals in the world were mined by Spain. However, the torrent of wealth is almost used to support the war of religious belief and colonial expansion, instead of developing industry and commerce that can really make the country rich and strong. The influx of wealth flowed away like running water, and Spain only played the role of "crossing the road" and became a "golden funnel". The "Spanish Phantom" shows that only by accumulating wealth without corresponding economic integration, government innovation, cultural upgrading and social evolution, the owner of any wealth is short-lived; Without stimulating and maintaining people's creativity, a country's prosperity will not last long. In 1970s, the rapid industrialization of Japan and South Korea shocked the world. However, after the 1990s, Japan stepped down from a world-famous economic power, and its enterprises fell rapidly among the top 500 in the world. South Korea's Hyundai and SK Group also experienced an economic crisis. Due to the neglect of the transformation from industrial economy to knowledge economy, the growth and development of enterprises and industries are still dominated by the government. "Large enterprises and super-large enterprises" lack the motivation to innovate and start businesses, and most technologies remain at the imitation level, lacking the cohesion and competitiveness of enterprise cores, which makes the rapidly developing Japanese and Korean economies fall into a quagmire.
Reviewing history and comparing international changes will undoubtedly help our country to plan ahead and not fall into the trap of modernization.
Promoting the strategic transformation of China based on the construction of universal social service system
To avoid falling into the quagmire of "Spanish Phantom", "Latin American Trap" and "Japan-South Korea Dilemma", the key to China's successful transformation is to build a national social service system.
The social universal service system consists of three subsystems, namely, universal service in humanistic society, universal service in industrial society and universal service in information knowledge society. It has five internal provisions: equalization, full coverage, availability, compulsion and sustainability. Social universal service system is a comprehensive security system serving all members of society, which not only requires government investment unilaterally, but also has independent production; While providing a social "safety net", we should build a basic platform so that everyone can enjoy the fruits of social development.
With the help of the universal social service system, the social fracture and imbalance in the process of China's modernization will be effectively prevented, and the deadlock of China's local civilization for thousands of years will be completely opened. This needs to focus on the following aspects:
First, deepen the strategy of social pluralistic and compound transformation. Globalization, knowledge and informatization have intensified the changes in the world. China has entered a period of transition adolescence and rapid growth, and the social transition presents multiple and compound characteristics. For example, rural society changes to urban society, planned economy changes to market economy, rapid industrialization of agricultural society leaps to knowledge society, three-dimensional hierarchical structure changes to flat network structure, closed society changes to open society, industrial dependence changes to industrial originality, linear economy changes to circular economy mode, survival culture changes to development culture breakthrough, and so on. The transformation of different dimensions has its own characteristics, permeates each other and advances together. Therefore, in order to deepen the reform, it is necessary to make comprehensive, multi-angle and all-round policies, carry out top-level design and system integration. With urbanization as the center, marketization as the driving force and industry as the guide, we will cross the knowledge economy, complete the all-round economic and social transformation, and realize the double leap of industrialization and knowledge.
Second, build a strategic support platform for universal social services. Building a universal social service system can enable anyone in China to enjoy equal basic civil rights and homogeneous basic public services at any time and any place, share the fruits of modernization, and ensure the healthy operation of society in a low-cost and stable state. In the social universal service system, the humanistic universal service guarantees people's rights of survival, development and free migration, provides equal status and equal opportunities for every citizen, and prevents the "Latin American trap"; Industrial universal service realizes network industrialization, industrial networking and corporate social responsibility, supports China's industrial innovation platform and prevents "Spanish phantom"; The universal service of information and knowledge ensures social integrity, and is committed to establishing information and knowledge diffusion mechanisms, reducing social operating costs and preventing "Japan-South Korea dilemma".
Third, clear the road map for the development of entrepreneurial economy. 2 1 century is an "entrepreneurial era", and the global economy is changing from a management economy to an entrepreneurial economy. The so-called entrepreneurial economy is a new economic form with innovation, entrepreneurship and creation as the core, theoretical innovation, mechanism innovation, technological innovation and system innovation as the purpose, and by establishing a comprehensive innovation system, it lays the foundation for the development of entrepreneurial economy and integrates knowledge, technology, management, capital and entrepreneurship. With the economic development of China entering the adjustment period, the characteristics of multiple and compound transformation of the whole society are becoming more and more prominent. While enjoying the rapid transmission of information and the global mobility of factors in the knowledge age, a series of problems such as "education gap", "digital gap", "employment gap" and "cultural gap" call for a new round of social growth to be led and driven by entrepreneurial economy.
Fourth, cultivate the strategy of world economic growth pole. The rapid rise of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, the Pearl River Delta urban agglomeration and the Bohai Sea urban agglomeration has brought the three growth poles of China's economy to the surface, further condensing and radiating the whole country. Overall planning of urban and rural areas, the coordinated development of the eastern, central and western regions, economy, society, man and nature, the "eastern, central and western" urban agglomeration will be built as soon as possible to create a new growth pole of China. Fifth, the dual drive of scientific and technological creativity starts the leading industry leading strategy. 2 1 century, universities will become knowledge gathering places and wealth creation centers, and technological innovation and creativity will become the two driving wheels of modern economic growth. The leading industry formed by technology and creativity has changed the competition mode of all countries in the world. The construction of leading industrial clusters can quickly gather and couple social compound capital such as human capital, financial capital and technical capital, capture new opportunities for global scientific and technological development, quickly enhance national competitiveness, seize the commanding heights of global new technology industries, and rapidly advance the modernization process from all directions and angles, so that China can lead the Asian plate and influence the world pattern. In view of this, the state should make every effort to build a multi-spiral incentive structure of "official, production, learning, research, innovation and gold", actively cultivate leading industrial clusters and build a world-class leading industrial park.
Universal social services promote the strategic transformation of China's economy.
Researcher Jin, Deputy Director of State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China Institute of Taxation Science: In the past 30 years of reform and opening up, China has made remarkable achievements in economic and social development. However, the contradiction between resources, environment and ecology is prominent, and China's reform has entered an important juncture, and it is urgent to find new strategic thinking and development momentum.
Professor Xu's article starts with the analysis of the "three big mountains" that China may face in its development, and puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to build a national social service system and complete the current economic strategic transformation. This paper is ambitious, but due to the limitation of space, some problems are not analyzed in depth. Interested readers can refer to the book Leaping: Strategic Transformation of China's Economy-Construction of Universal Social Service System, which will make readers have a comprehensive and profound understanding of the current development problems in China.