One. Proactive fiscal policy.
The State Council decided to make major adjustments to its fiscal policy and implement a proactive fiscal policy. "This is the second time in 1998 that China turned to a proactive fiscal policy in response to the Asian financial crisis. From 65438 to 0998, due to the impact of the Asian financial crisis, there were problems of insufficient effective demand and obvious deflation trend in China, and economic growth was weak. In this case, our government resolutely decided to implement a proactive fiscal policy, which not only effectively resisted the impact of the Asian financial crisis, but also promoted economic restructuring and sustained and rapid growth. Since 2004, China's economy has begun to emerge from the shadow of deflation, showing a trend of accelerated development. However, there have also been some problems such as excessive investment growth in some industries and regions, and inflationary pressures have been increasing. Under this circumstance, the government once again made a choice to turn a proactive fiscal policy into a prudent fiscal policy from 2005. "
Two. Moderately loose monetary policy.
This is the first time that China 10 has used the word "loose" in monetary policy for many years. Appropriate loose monetary policy is intended to increase the money supply, while continuing to stabilize the overall price level, which should play a more positive role in promoting economic growth. During the period of 1998, China implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. In the second half of 2007, the monetary policy changed from "prudent" to "tight" in view of the phenomenon of excessive price increase and high investment and credit in the economy. Nowadays, the shift of monetary policy to "moderate easing" means a major shift in the orientation of money supply. Historically, changes in monetary policy are always closely related to a country's macroeconomic situation. The current change in China's monetary policy highlights the country's determination to promote economic growth.
"This adjustment is a signal that the country will boost the economy." Yuan Gangming, a researcher in China of Tsinghua University Institute of Economics and Management and World Economic Research Center, believes that the domestic economy has shown signs of declining growth rate, and moderately loose monetary policy is the response.
Since last year, China's GDP growth rate has declined for five consecutive quarters, and some factories in coastal areas have difficulties in operation; At the same time, the weakening of external demand has brought new pressure to China's exports.
The relevant person in charge of the central bank also said in an interview that the current implementation of moderately loose monetary policy is to ensure the stable growth of money and credit and sufficient liquidity of the financial system, promote steady and rapid economic growth, support the expansion of domestic demand, maintain currency stability and financial stability, and increase financial support for economic growth. Moderately loose monetary policy, on the one hand, will play a pulling role in economic growth, on the other hand, it will lay a solid foundation for the healthy development of the future economy.
"Adding the word" moderate "before" loose "emphasizes that the scale of credit relaxation is not comprehensive relaxation, but pressure and choice." Zhang Bin believes that "more attention will be paid to the quality and efficiency of economic growth."
Three. Implementation of specific policies (in chronological order)
1 .9 On June 5, 55438+05, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the benchmark interest rate of RMB loans and the RMB deposit reserve ratio of small and medium-sized financial institutions: since September 25, 2008, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of other deposit-taking financial institutions has been lowered by1percentage point, Wenchuan.
Comments: With the repeated interest rate hikes in recent years, the space for the central bank to raise interest rates has been shrinking. However, at the beginning of this year, the CPI index began to rise wildly, which put the financial sector in a dilemma. If we raise interest rates in order to curb inflation, it will lead to difficulties for small and medium-sized enterprises and lower the stock market, while lowering interest rates will condone the rise of CPI. In desperation, we can only stop adjusting the bank interest rate and raise the deposit reserve ratio to achieve the effect of curbing inflation.
Just after the CPI index fell for four consecutive months, more importantly, the CPI index fell to 4.9% in August. Just a few days after the CPI index was released in August, the central bank suddenly announced a rate cut. This time, the situation is basically the same as usual, and the central bank's policy is adjusted with the CPI index. The sudden interest rate cut is not only to break the public's expectation of raising bank interest rates, but also has a lot to do with the recent shortage of funds and operational difficulties of many small and medium-sized enterprises in coastal areas.
It is undoubtedly good news for the property market that the central bank ends the interest rate hike cycle and enters the policy adjustment period. This is the first time that the central bank has lowered the benchmark loan interest rate since June 29th, 2004, and it is also the first time that the central bank has lowered the deposit reserve ratio in nine years. In recent years, with the gradual increase of bank interest rates, the demand for housing loans by domestic residents has been gradually suppressed. Regarding the expectation that banks will raise interest rates in the second half of the year, if the central bank raises interest rates again, it will undoubtedly have a greater impact on the depressed property market.
Although the central bank's interest rate cut this time is mainly to help small and medium-sized enterprises solve their difficulties, it also shows from another level that inflation has been reasonably and effectively controlled. In the future, bank interest rates and deposit reserve ratio will be in a relatively stable period, and there will be no major adjustment in the short term, at least not further increase. Because the national fiscal policy generally will not be adjusted up and down in a short time, unless the domestic inflation worsens. The relaxation of the financial environment will bring vitality to the current development of the property market.
After the ordinary residents' doubts about the bank's interest rate hike are eliminated, the demand for residents' loans may be released under the circumstances that various properties have launched special prices and preferential prices, thus gradually pushing the domestic real estate market out of the downturn and into a healthy development period.
2. The collection method of stamp duty on securities transactions is adjusted to unilateral taxation. 18, with the approval of the State Council, the Ministry of Finance and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China of People's Republic of China (PRC) decided to adjust the collection method of stamp duty on securities (stocks) transactions from September, 2008, and to levy the stamp duty on securities (stocks) transactions on the A-share and B-share stock transfer documents issued by the transaction, inheritance and gift at the current rate of one thousandth, and adjust it to unilateral taxation.
Comments: Reducing the transaction cost of stocks may increase the transaction volume in the short term. However, due to the setback of international stock market and the continuous downturn, it seems that some indicators cannot cure the problem. As Gong Fangxiong, an economist in JPMorgan Chase, predicted, "Given that the global crisis has seriously impacted investment confidence, China's decision to adjust stamp duty on June 5438+08 may not be able to stimulate the medium and long-term stock market." Perhaps, just as some people criticized "distributing tickets" and "food stamps" in the past, some people now criticize the household registration system. Can canceling them solve the problem? The key is that the rights and obligations attached to them should be stripped off. The implementation of unilateral stamp duty may have a positive effect on the stock market in the short term.
2. Support central enterprises to increase or buy back shares of listed companies. Sasac director Li Rongrong 18 also said that the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SAAC) has always emphasized that state-owned enterprises, especially central enterprises, should become a positive force to promote the stable development of the capital market. In the current stock market downturn, SASAC supports central enterprises to increase their holdings or buy back shares of listed companies.
3. Huijin announced that it would independently buy shares of ICBC, China and CCB in the secondary market. In order to ensure the state's controlling position in key state-owned financial institutions such as ICBC and China Construction Bank, support the steady operation and development of key state-owned financial institutions, and stabilize the share price of state-owned commercial banks, Central Huijin will independently purchase shares of ICBC, China Construction Bank and China Construction Bank in the secondary market, and start relevant market operations from now on.
Comments: It is understandable for any ideological country to increase its holdings of stocks and inject capital into state-owned enterprises (large enterprises). Some people once criticized that the US rescue of the market is socialism, not to mention the rationality of the state's use of public taxes to rescue enterprises. As far as the tools for the state to regulate the market economy are concerned, the rise and fall of large enterprises is particularly related to the basic people's livelihood, and the state support is reasonable. However, when its development is gradually mature, it should strengthen its own risk early warning mechanism and immunity to risk perfection defects.
On October 5th, 65438/KLOC-0, the People's Bank of China issued an announcement, agreeing that China Association of Interbank Market Dealers would continue to accept the registration of medium-term notes issued by non-financial enterprises from June 6th, 65438/KLOC-0.
Comments: Restarting the issuance of medium-term notes will help some large enterprises obtain liquidity, ease their financing difficulties, and do not rule out using funds to increase their holdings of listed companies. At the same time, due to certain threshold restrictions on the issuance of medium-term notes, the financing help for SMEs is limited.
5.65438+200810.5, the CSRC indicated that it would start the pilot work of margin financing and securities lending business of securities companies in the near future.
Comment: Some people call it "short selling" to cash out. It is difficult for securities companies to raise funds, especially at this moment when the stock market is depressed. Carrying out this business can not only expand profits, but also expand losses. The launch of the pilot margin trading business of securities companies is an important measure for the reform and development of China's capital market, and it also injects new vitality into the current securities market, which is of positive significance for promoting the stable development and reform and innovation of China's capital market.
6.65438 10 8, the State Council decided to temporarily exempt personal income tax on the interest income from savings deposits from June 9, 2008.
On the same day, the People's Bank of China decided to reduce the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from June 5438+1October 65438+May. 10 From June 9, the benchmark interest rates for one-year RMB deposits and loans will be lowered by 0.27 percentage points, and the benchmark interest rates for other term grades will be adjusted accordingly.
Comment: These two contradictory measures have caused some people's misunderstanding. Exempting from interest tax will obviously increase personal savings and become a tax haven for personal income. At present, inflation is properly controlled and no further measures are needed. Lowering the reserve ratio is obviously also a favorable policy for the stock market. It can be seen that the two measures introduced by the state at the same time have different purposes and there is no conflict.
7.101October 2 1 day, the Ministry of Finance of People's Republic of China (PRC) and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China jointly issued the Notice on Increasing the Export Tax Refund Rate of Some Commodities, increasing the export tax rebate rate of 3,486 commodities.
Comments: This policy adjustment is mainly to meet the challenges faced by the current economic slowdown in China, especially the slowdown in export growth. By reducing the operating pressure of export enterprises, we can promote their self-development and improve their ability to cope with risks.
The substantial adjustment of commodity export tax rebate rate once again highlights the macro-control intention of China government to "maintain growth", which is another major control measure after the recent increase in credit scale of commercial banks, the implementation of new foreign exchange management regulations and the two-time reduction of "double rate".
Since the beginning of this year, affected by the international financial turmoil and the global economic slowdown, China's economic growth has slowed down significantly. According to the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the economic growth rate of China in the first three quarters of this year was 9.9%, 2.3 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year.
By increasing the export tax rebate rate of labor-intensive products, it is conducive to enhancing the ability of enterprises to resist market risks, supporting the healthy development of small and medium-sized enterprises, overcoming operational difficulties, and thus promoting the employment of urban and rural labor. In addition, by increasing the export tax rebate rate of high-tech and high value-added goods, it will help guide enterprises to optimize the export product structure and accelerate the pace of industrial upgrading.
8.65438+1 On October 22nd, the Ministry of Finance announced that from June 5438+065438+ 10/day, the deed tax rate will be reduced to 1% for the first time for individuals to buy ordinary houses of 90 square meters or less, and stamp duty will be temporarily exempted for individuals to sell or buy houses. Financial institutions provide loans for residents to purchase ordinary self-occupied housing for the first time and improve ordinary self-occupied housing. The lower limit of the loan interest rate can be extended to 0.7 times of the benchmark loan interest rate, and the minimum down payment ratio can be adjusted to 20%. At the same time, the interest rate of individual housing provident fund loans was lowered, and the interest rates of all grades were lowered by 0.27 percentage points respectively. Local governments can formulate policies for fee reduction and exemption to encourage housing consumption.
Comments: There have been different views on the government's rescue of real estate, including the acquisition of "Fannie and Freddie" by the United States. Many people think that this is a protection for real estate developers. As we all know, house prices are inflated, resulting in bubbles. Take Beijing as an example. Housing prices in the capital should be long, but obviously they can't keep soaring. After calculating the benchmark interest rate of 0.7 times, it is known that there is a phenomenon of "deposit and loan upside down". Of course, this may be a formal slogan, the main purpose is to boost public confidence. The introduction of these measures to encourage the purchase of houses makes people have to have suspense: This will not cause the "subprime mortgage crisis" in China, will it? If house prices do not fall, the fundamental ills such as "land" finance will not change. Perhaps behind the remarkable achievements, some people got a gray income, hitchhiked with the government and took advantage of the policy.
9. 10 year 10 On 29 October, the central bank announced that the benchmark interest rates for RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions would be lowered from 10/0/0 on 30 October, among which the benchmark interest rates for one-year deposits and loans would be lowered by 0.27 percentage points respectively.
Comments: Two interest rate cuts in one month are enough to show the prudent macroeconomic policies of the government in this economic crisis, to prevent excessive regulation, and to see the water conservation just after the fire. But the effect of such refueling tactics is often not particularly obvious.
10.165438+1October 4th, the central bank indicated that it would no longer impose hard constraints on the credit scale of commercial banks.
Comment: Some people say that the crisis is both a danger and an opportunity. The financial crisis is also an opportunity for China's financial system reform. At present, China's financial assets, enterprises and operations are too nationalized, and its ability to prevent risks and market competitiveness have been improved to the alley. Appropriately liberalizing financial and commercial markets is also a measure to improve financial markets. Of course, some people think that the relatively closed nature of China's finance has protected the financial industry (such as197 Asian financial crisis), but the globalization of financial capital has accelerated, and the degree of China's participation in international finance requires that our financial market reform is imminent.
11.165438+15 October, the State Council held an executive meeting to study and deploy measures to further expand domestic demand and promote steady and rapid economic growth. The meeting identified ten measures to further expand domestic demand and promote economic growth.
Comment: This is a big fiscal policy. The basic investment of 4 trillion yuan will stimulate local and all-round investment 10 trillion yuan, which may make western countries stunned. Some countries admire China's efforts to concentrate on great things, but we should keep a clear head. Conducive to investment to promote the economy. It should be noted that it is necessary to guard against corruption and prevent policy mistakes and investment from deviating from the direction. These investments are mainly in infrastructure projects and people's livelihood, and not many directly promote consumption. They mainly focus on increasing farmers' income and are optimistic about the rural market. The goal of expanding domestic demand has also become the meaning of this "land reform". Without real income growth, how to consume? Professor Li Changping once said, "It is estimated that the real income growth of farmers in the past decade has not exceeded 9% (excluding inflation)." So it's the turn of the countryside to improve people's livelihood this time.
12. Promote the transformation of value-added tax. The executive meeting of the State Council approved the transformation and reform plan of value-added tax submitted by the Ministry of Finance of People's Republic of China (PRC) and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China, and decided to implement the transformation and reform of value-added tax nationwide from 2009 1.
Comments: One advantage of the VAT system is that it can avoid the problem of repeated taxation in the process of production specialization. A substantial reduction in the collection rate of small-scale taxpayers will reduce the tax burden of small and medium-sized enterprises and provide them with a more favorable development environment. In the face of the current bankruptcy dilemma of small and medium-sized enterprises, whether it is 67 thousand as some people say or as some leaders deny, it is difficult to export and the survival of labor-intensive enterprises is in trouble. It has been suggested that this crisis can just promote the transformation of manufacturing industry, but the employment of a large number of laborers has to be considered. Mr Wu Jinglian also pointed out the obstacles to the transformation of China's manufacturing industry. In addition, the Ministry of Finance of China and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China will further encourage the development of small and medium-sized enterprises by raising the threshold of value-added tax and business tax. Of course, the implementation of consumption-oriented value-added tax will also lead to the reduction of fiscal revenue. According to statistics, the tax revenue will be reduced by about 200 billion yuan. Some people question whether this will cause insufficient stamina for the 4 trillion expenditure, and the timing is wrong.
13.165438+10.5 On October 5, the National Development and Reform Commission said that next year, China will substantially increase the minimum purchase price of grain and subsidies for improved varieties, agricultural machinery and tools, and agricultural materials, and substantially increase investment in supporting agricultural production and rural development.
Comment: From the Third Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee, we can see the central government's determination to support agriculture. I remember that when Premier * * * visited students at Renmin University, he said, "China leaders who don't understand the three rural issues are incompetent."
The rural development in China is seriously lagging behind, and the dual structure of urban and rural areas has hindered social development in many aspects, which really cannot be changed.
14.165438+1October 10, * * * * deploy seven tasks to implement the central policies and measures.
1, increase investment and optimize investment structure.
2. Focus on expanding consumer demand, especially the consumer demand of residents.
3. Promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market
4. Strive to maintain steady export growth.
5. Focus on improving enterprise quality and market competitiveness.
6. Do a good job in financial affairs.
7, promote the reform of key links and key areas.
15.165438+10/2, the State Council executive meeting decided four implementation measures:
Measures 1 examine and approve fixed assets investment projects, and measures 2 increase the export tax rebate rate of 3,770 products.
The third measure is to determine the specific plan of reconstruction funds in disaster areas, and the fourth measure is to strengthen support for forestry ecological restoration and reconstruction.
16.165438+1October 19 Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: Ten measures were introduced to deal with the downward pressure of industrial growth.
Ministry of Finance: Starting from June 5438+1 October 20091,the administrative fees of 100 were cancelled and stopped nationwide, which reduced the burden on enterprises and society by about 654.38+09 billion yuan and arranged special funds for small and medium-sized enterprises. Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security: From June 5438+1 October 20091,the basic pension for enterprise retirees will be adjusted, and the adjustment level will be determined according to about 10% of the per capita basic pension for local enterprise retirees in 2008. Ministry of Land and Resources: Since 2009, the state has gradually and appropriately raised the compensation standard for land acquisition.
17.165438+1On October 26th, the People's Bank of China decided to lower the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans and the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions: starting from June 27th, 2008, the benchmark interest rate of RMB deposits and loans of financial institutions for one year will be lowered by 1.08 percentage points respectively, while the benchmark interest rates of deposits and loans for other periods will be lowered. At the same time, the central bank's refinancing and rediscount rates will be lowered. From June 5438 to February 5, 2008, the RMB deposit reserve ratio of large deposit-taking financial institutions such as China Industrial and Commercial Bank, China Agricultural Bank, China Bank, China Construction Bank, Bank of Communications and Postal Savings Bank was lowered by 1 percentage point, and the RMB deposit reserve ratio of small and medium-sized deposit-taking financial institutions was lowered by 2 percentage points. At the same time, we will continue to implement preferential deposit reserve ratio for Wenchuan earthquake-stricken areas and rural financial institutions.
Comment: The reason why these measures are combined together is that some measures may not be taken simply to deal with this economic crisis, but they will have an impact on economic recovery and development to a greater or lesser extent. At the same time, through these policies, we can find that the monetary policy used to deal with this economic crisis is more than the financial crisis of 1997, and the combination of fiscal policy and monetary policy is more comfortable. In particular, the problems of small and medium-sized enterprises and rural development are based on long-term development goals, not simple economic crisis.
At present, the economic crisis is not over yet. As Cheng Siwei said, "China cannot save the United States with heroes", he predicted that the financial crisis would pass in two to three years and the world economy would recover from 20 1 1. As for the effects of these macroeconomic policies in China, some of them have achieved results and need to work hard to get out of the economic crisis.