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2065438+March 1, in 2005, the Provisional Regulations on Real Estate Registration came into effect. All towns in China must input their paper real estate files into electronic information database and establish local housing information system. The housing information system of all cities above the prefecture level in China must be connected with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and it shall not be postponed under any excuse. The Ministry of Agriculture will select two pilot provinces to register and certify rural land ownership.
0 1, 20 14, for families with two houses, the part with a per capita construction area of more than 80 square meters is regarded as luxury residential consumption, and the property tax is levied at the market evaluation price of 1%-3% every year without deduction;
02. For the third family house, the property tax of 4%-5% is levied every year without deduction;
03. For the fourth and above houses, 10% property tax is levied every year without deduction;
04, cancel the original Provisional Regulations on Property Tax, which stipulated that individual housing can pay property tax according to 12% of rental income;
05. Unless otherwise stipulated by the Ministry of Finance of People's Republic of China (PRC) and State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China, all commercial properties are subject to property tax every year at the rate of 12% of rental income.
06. The only house occupied by a family is exempt from property tax.
So: The cheapest house in China may be in ten years. It is relative to the per capita income to say that the house is cheap after ten years. For example, the per capita monthly income is now 3,000, and the average house price is 8,500 per square meter. Ten years later, when the per capita monthly income is 654.38+0.000 yuan, the average house price may be 654.38+0.2000 yuan per square meter. Relatively speaking, house prices are certainly much cheaper than now. Therefore, the house bought at a high price now will not maintain and increase in value after ten years. The reason for this is the following：
1. Compared with the house prices in ancient and modern China and abroad, the house prices in China are at their peak. At the current housing price, a family with an annual income of 80,000 can only afford a set of 100 square meter three-bedroom ordinary commercial housing without eating or drinking. This price is very high. If house prices continue to rise, all sectors of society can't afford it. Since they can't afford it, house prices have lost their motivation to rise now.
Two, China has implemented the "land finance" policy for more than ten years. With the end of the "land king" era, the "land sales finance" is becoming more and more unsustainable, and government departments have begun to change their thinking, and will gradually change from "land finance" to "real estate finance", that is, collect "property tax" from house owners to obtain new and sustained financial income, which will undoubtedly increase the holding cost of house owners and reduce the attractiveness of houses as family wealth.
In those areas with developed national economy, it is one of the main factors to continuously attract the inflow of foreign population and promote the continuous rise of housing prices. However, with the increase of regional economic development and the transfer of industrial capital to underdeveloped areas, the total population of economically developed areas will show an upward trend one after another in ten years. The "labor shortage" that began on 20 10 is already a sign. It is predicted that the floating population in economically developed areas will have a negative growth trend, and the population will have a negative growth after ten years.
Fourth, China's family planning policy, which has been implemented for more than 30 years, is the most powerful weapon to end the rising house prices. The most fundamental driving force supporting the rise in housing prices is "steel demand", that is, "new people" demand. However, due to the country's family planning policy, the number of "new people" is decreasing year by year. In fact, China society has now entered an "aging" country. In another ten years, China society will become more aging and young people will become "scarce".
At present, the backbone of society is people born in 1960s and 1970s, and their spending power and purchasing power are undoubtedly the strongest in the whole society. These people are basically people who buy villas and luxury cars in the market. Many of these people now own more than one set of high-grade commercial housing, and their descendants are only the "only generation". Ten years later, these "only generations" have grown up. Can I only rent or sell? However, it is undoubtedly impossible to expect peers who are both "unique generations" to "take over" each other!
After six or ten years, the proportion of the elderly population in China will reach 25%, and there may be a large number of elderly people living in nursing homes (the "only generation" is one to four, so they cannot take care of them). After the elderly live in nursing homes, there will be a large number of vacant houses. Perhaps many old villages today will become "ghost villages" after ten years of lack of popularity.
According to foreign media reports, no matter how China's housing prices rise, there will always be some voices that the real estate bubble is about to burst and the real estate market will collapse immediately. Ordinary property buyers are afraid of these voices and dare not start. After all, for most people, buying a house has consumed most of their savings. Excluding inflation, the cheapest thing in China in ten years may be a house.
Let's not discuss whether it is a bubble. Whether the cheapest house in ten years is still uncertain. The crux of the problem lies in whether there is a problem with the basic logic behind building a house. The past decade can be described as the golden age of real estate development, and also the process of rapid urbanization in China. It can be said that the prosperity of real estate is only a symbol of urbanization.
China's urbanization has gone through three stages:
The first is to limit urbanization. A large number of people gather in cities and towns, which brings difficulties in management and economic support, so the process of going to the countryside and reverse urbanization is inevitable.
The second stage is to get rid of the idea of urbanization and choose urbanization as the main path to promote the urbanization process in China. Taking land as a bargaining chip, the government has opened up a new path of land finance. With the dual promotion of capital and land, the real estate market in China has quickly become the focus of society, and glamorous cities have sprung up like mushrooms after rain.
The third stage is the new urbanization strategy recently put forward by the central government. This strategy has two key points: one is to break the household registration system that restricts population mobility, and the other is to limit the land system that restricts urbanization. All these problems boil down to one question: promoting urbanization is a social science, and the question is where to obtain capital. This problem is still difficult to get rid of the dependence on land finance.
In the process of promoting urbanization, we have gained the prosperity of cities and towns, with more high-rise buildings, spacious roads and high-speed rail being built farther and farther.
But everything is always balanced, and negative risks are also gathering.
The first risk is the urbanization debt risk. The recent crisis is the debt crisis of Handan property market. The interest rate of private lending is generally as high as 20% to 30%, and the amount involved is as high as 9.3 billion, and one tenth of local families are involved. The so-called ghost town is the problem of debt chain. The core driving force of China's economic growth is investment in fixed assets. However, when a large amount of capital is invested in fixed assets, it will lead to the lack of other capital, and it will also easily lead to asset bubbles. The bursting of the bubble will reduce the value of real estate, even a certain link of the capital cycle will be interrupted, and a large-scale debt crisis will break out.
This is a common problem encountered by many countries in the world in the process of promoting urbanization, especially China. There is a simple reason. The government's management of land finance will lead to the rise of land price and real estate market, which will crowd out many industries and people. Under this premise, many local governments borrow heavily. If there is no money surplus, many local governments don't know how many times they went bankrupt. To solve the debt problem, many people want to let go of the loan restriction order, but if they do so, the "virus" of the crisis will actually spread rapidly and get out of hand. Therefore, we have repeatedly stressed that we can no longer exchange credit easing for so-called short-term prosperity.
The second risk is the risk of land transformation. The social risks brought by land reform are mainly reflected in the level of interest distribution. The secret of land finance in recent years is to make use of the difference between low-priced land acquisition and high-priced land auction, and officials of all sizes have made every effort to promote land finance for the sake of political achievements. However, most people feel that the distribution of demolition benefits is unreasonable, they can't buy the house they want on the spot, and their psychology is difficult to balance. Therefore, a large number of demolitions and forced enclosures have been repeatedly banned, and the pressure of maintaining stability is very great.
After the problem comes out, the main body of maintaining stability is often the officials who create the problem, so some officials who create the crisis take violent measures to treat petitioners to cover up the problem and crisis. Can this logic convince people?
There are always people who say nail house and unruly people. The question is why the pressure of letters and visits is so great and the society is so dissatisfied. In the final analysis, it is still a problem of unfair distribution of benefits after land appreciation. Of course, some relocated households have indeed exceeded the reasonable limit, but overall, the root of the problem lies in the mechanism of amplifying the risk of land transfer. Of course, with the continuous improvement of the system and the increasing anti-corruption efforts, some local officials have indeed converged a lot.
It can only be said that the real estate market has transcended its own boundaries and become a social problem.
It is not just real estate that kidnaps the society, but the society kidnaps the real estate, which is unbearable for real estate.
If these basic mechanisms are not fundamentally repaired, it may not be a question of whether the house is cheap or not in ten years, but a question of the double pressure of economic transformation and social transformation may increase greatly.
Since this is the result, why did the government save the market this time?
A large number of local governments are insolvent. The report of the Audit Commission on the survey of local debts in China believes that local debts are quite serious, and a large number of local governments are insolvent and unable to repay such debts. However, in the past, the audit bureau did not find it at all.
According to the survey, many local financing platforms, every county government and prefecture-level city government have a state-owned asset investment fund company. Such a state-owned enterprise can set up N subsidiaries, and under N subsidiaries, it can also set up N grandson companies, which will be established from generation to generation. After the n generation, it was also a national enterprise. Local governments directly allocate land or resources to such enterprises, which collude with banks to issue wealth management products or trust products, and finally allocate funds to local governments for use.
This way, according to the past method of the Audit Commission, does not need to be reported, because this enterprise is established and operated in accordance with the Company Law, and it can go bankrupt at any time in accordance with the Company Law, and it is not an enterprise directly engaged in financing for local governments. Because local governments operate in different ways, local debts are quite serious now.
At present, the outstanding problem is that the development of local debt is quite fast, and there is no sign of stopping. We believe that the local debt bubble will eventually go wrong and the local debt will eventually be repaid. Many local governments rely on land sales, which will definitely lead to social problems, and problems will happen anyway. When this problem will happen is also a matter of timing.
What is the motivation of the government to rescue the market?
1. This time, the government rescued the market and used the psychology of "buying up and not buying down" to try to fool our people. China people are still a bunch of fools. It will give real estate enterprises an excellent opportunity to digest their memories and put the price of the overstocked real estate bricks on the people. Repeatedly tightening policies to save the market, and then tightening policies to save the market, so that the cost of buying a house for ordinary people is getting higher and higher. ...
People were frightened by this policy. At this time, the relevant classes took the opportunity to throw out: if you don't buy a house this time, you won't be able to sell it for 20 years. This time, it's different. This time just to lure people to buy and take the opportunity to ship. These XX classes and drummers are disgusting. ...
2. Under the pressure of anti-corruption, many officials, like developers, are eager to throw away their houses, so as not to bring huge trouble to themselves. By rescuing the market, the real estate can be realized smoothly and washed white. ......
What will happen to people who buy a house under the government bailout?
1. Developers already have huge financial problems, and the risk of running away may occur at any time. Developers who used to rely on banks and property buyers are in trouble in the downturn of the market. At this time, the bank is loosened, which is intended to introduce more buyers and give developers a loose condom. Unfortunately, developers who have fallen into usury will die a lot if they slow down. If you accidentally meet such a developer, it is not a big tragedy for property buyers.
2. The property market has always been in a weak position for ordinary people, and the legal rights protection mechanism of owners is not guaranteed. There is still no good solution to the problems such as housing quality or extortion.
I bought two suites. What should I do if I have to pay taxes in the future? Now, in order to save the market, the central bank is trying to lure people to buy second homes. How many people will be hurt if a property tax is levied in the future? Who will bear it? Does it mean that the central bank can guarantee not to levy property tax in the future?
What should the people do when the government rescues the market? The real estate bubble is almost bursting. As long as ordinary people insist on not buying a house for one year, the real estate bubble will burst and house prices will really bottom out. At that time, the most important thing in China was the house. ......