On August 12, 2065438, the central bank released financial data for July. In July, China added RMB loans106 billion yuan, with the expected value1242.3 billion yuan and the previous value166 billion yuan. The scale of social financing increased by 10 10 billion yuan, with the previous value of 2,260 billion yuan; In July, M2 was 8. 1% year-on-year, with an expected 8.46% and a previous value of 8.5%. M 1 money supply 3. 1%, the previous value was 4.4%; M0 money supply was 4.5% year-on-year, and the previous value was 4.3%.
Weak demand was verified and bill loans reappeared. The credit data in July was worse than expected, and the credit of each term increased slightly year-on-year. Among them, short-term credit is the biggest drag on credit growth, which confirms our view of "weak demand in the real economy+neutral money supply". Considering the current low growth rate of bank reserves, it restricts the credit expansion of banks to some extent. Observing the growth rate of medium and long-term credit, the growth rate of medium and long-term loans of enterprises has been poor for most of the time since 20 19, and the housing demand of residential sector is still the support of medium and long-term credit, while the sluggish investment demand of enterprises is expected to continue. Observing short-term credit, the weakening of production activities slowed down the growth of short-term loans of enterprises, and the impulse of bills reappeared in July. On the whole, there are some contradictions in the combination of production expansion, demand contraction, inventory contraction and price increase, but further, the main improvement is the price index of production and raw materials, and the demand contraction corresponds to the ex-factory price contraction, so the main pulling force is still on the supply side. We believe that this combination is unstable, and it is more likely that supply is close to demand. In July, the growth rate of M 1 was only 3. 1%, while the growth rate of short-term loans of enterprises dropped sharply. Combined with the PMI data in July, the three mutually confirm that the economic operation is relatively sluggish.
Marginal contraction of off-balance sheet financing. In July, non-standard financing decreased by 622.6 billion yuan, an increase of 654.38+34 billion yuan year-on-year, and undiscounted bank acceptance bills were the main drag. In July, real estate trust loans were supervised, and the sharp decrease of undiscounted bank acceptance bills was mutually confirmed by the short-term credit downturn of enterprises and the low growth rate of M/KLOC-0. From another point of view, the gap between the direct coupon rate of bills and the yield of wealth management products with the same maturity has widened again, but the undiscounted bank acceptance bills have remained downward. We believe that the low growth of this item is actually a reflection of the weakening of enterprise activities under the background of weak economic demand. Judging from the current marginal tightening of real estate credit, superimposed economic activity is sluggish, and we predict that it is difficult for non-standard financing to rise rapidly in 20 19. Observing the social financing data, it is difficult to be optimistic about the new RMB loans, and the financing demand of the real economy has returned to a low point; The margin of non-standard financing is tightened again, financial risk events appear in June and July, and the social contraction effect of financial supply and reform may be reflected in July.
Economic activity shows a downturn, and the growth rate of M2 still needs to be observed. In July, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8. 1%, which was significantly lower than that of last month. M 1 recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 3. 1%, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous month and a decrease of 2% from the previous year. The decrease of off-balance sheet financing and insufficient superimposed credit are the reasons for the decline of M2 growth rate. The low growth rate of M 1 and the low growth rate of short-term loans of enterprises confirm each other, and we should continue to observe in the future to determine the bottom range of narrow money growth rate.
Bond market strategy: We have previously suggested that the real economy is expected to maintain weak demand, and the credit and social financing data in July confirmed our view. The issuance of local government special bonds is making efforts, which may provide some support for social integration during the year. It is worth noting that the credit stratification in the interbank market affects the credit supply of banks. We predict that the annual growth rate of social integration will be in the range of10%-1%,and 10.5% will be the median for judging the tightness of policies. As far as the bond market is concerned, we believe that the downward trend of bond yield will remain unchanged in the short term, and the yield of 10-year government bonds will gradually approach the lower range of 2.8-3.2%.
main body
Data: On August 20, 200912, the central bank released financial data for July. In July, China added RMB loans of106 billion yuan, expected1242.3 billion yuan, and previous value166 billion yuan; The scale of social financing increased by 10 10 billion yuan, with the previous value of 2,260 billion yuan; In July, M2 was 8. 1% year-on-year, with an expected 8.46% and a previous value of 8.5%. M 1 money supply 3. 1%, the previous value was 4.4%; M0 money supply was 4.5% year-on-year, and the previous value was 4.3%.
Weak demand was verified and bill credit reappeared.
In July, China increased RMB loans by 654.38+006 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 390 billion yuan. Loans from residents' departments increased by 511200 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of123.2 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 69.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 654,380.073 billion yuan; Medium-and long-term residential loans increased by 44 17 billion yuan, but decreased by/kloc-0.5 billion yuan. Corporate loans increased by 297.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 352.7 billion yuan, of which short-term corporate loans increased by 2 195 and decreased by11600 million yuan. Medium and long-term corporate loans increased by 367.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of119.7 billion yuan. Overall, short-term loans decreased by 654.38+050 billion yuan in July, a year-on-year decrease of 223.3 billion yuan; Bill financing increased by 654.38+028.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 654.38+0654.38+004 billion yuan; Medium and long-term loans increased by 809.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 654.38+035.6 billion yuan. The credit data in July was worse than expected, and the credit of all maturities declined year-on-year, with short-term credit being the biggest drag on credit growth.
The return of liquidity is one of the reasons for the weak credit growth in July. In July, RMB loans increased by106 billion, which was lower than the market expectation, confirming our view of "weak demand in the real economy+neutral money supply". From the perspective of liquidity supply, this paper observes the relationship between the central bank's open market operation and new RMB loans, and finds that the central bank's open market operation has a certain guiding role in credit. Observing the liquidity of the central bank, the central bank's monetary policy has turned marginal since May 20 19. In July, the net liquidity was 5 10 billion yuan, 90 billion yuan more than that in the same period of 20 18. Considering the current low growth rate of bank reserves, the liquidity withdrawal of the central bank in July may lead to a further decline in the level of bank reserves, which will limit the credit expansion of banks to a certain extent.
Observing the growth rate of medium and long-term loans, the growth rate of medium and long-term loans of enterprises has been poor most of the time since 20 19, and the proportion of medium and long-term loans of residents in the incremental structure of medium and long-term loans has surpassed that of enterprises since April. The growth rate of medium and long-term loans in July 2065438+2009 was lower than that in the same period last year. The increase of medium and long-term loans in the household sector provided some support, while the increase of medium and long-term loans in the enterprise sector was 367.8 billion yuan, which remained relatively insufficient. The housing demand of the family sector is still supported by medium and long-term credit, while the weak demand for medium and long-term investment of enterprises is expected to continue.
Observing short-term credit, the weakening of production activities slowed down the growth of short-term loans of enterprises, and the impulse of bills reappeared in July. The growth rate of short-term credit of enterprises dropped sharply year-on-year, with a decrease of 2 195 billion yuan in July, while the short-term credit of residents only increased by 69.5 billion yuan in July. Judging from residents' short-term loans, consumption in July may be under pressure. Observing the high-frequency data in July, it is found that the national blast furnace operating rate and the coal consumption of the six major power generation groups are in the downward range. It is worth noting that July is a month of electricity consumption, and the abnormal decline in coal consumption for power generation implies that the production activities of Chinese enterprises are weakening. According to Caixin. Com, when the regulatory authorities asked the banking industry to adjust and optimize the credit structure, the demand for bill reposting market was in short supply, and the interest rate of bill reposting hit a new low in recent years. Since July 30th, the transaction interest rate of bank bills of state-owned and joint-stock banks (acceptance bills of state-owned and joint-stock banks) in the spot market began to fall below 2% on a large scale, and entered a rare period of 1% interest rate in recent years. On July 3 1 day, the interest rate of some short-term state-owned bank bills was even lower than 1%. At the end of the month, bill financing was supported by the regulatory authorities. After the "discount rate broke 1%" incident, the chain-on-chain growth rate finally turned positive, but the year-on-year increase was still 1 1000 billion yuan. In July, short-term loans of enterprises decreased by 219.5 billion yuan, both significantly lower than the same period last year.
In July, the official manufacturing PMI was 49.7%, up 0.3% from the previous value; The non-manufacturing PMI was 53.7%, down 0.5% from the previous value; The comprehensive PMI output index was 53. 1%, a slight increase of 0. 1 percentage point over the previous month. On the whole, there are some contradictions in the combination of production expansion, demand contraction, inventory contraction and price increase, but further, the main improvement is the price index of production and raw materials, while demand contraction corresponds to the ex-factory price contraction, so the main driving force is still on the supply side, similar to the deviation between industrial added value and profit in June. We think this combination is unstable, and it is more likely that the supply is close to the demand. In July, the growth rate of M 1 was only 3. 1%, and the growth rate of short-term loans of enterprises dropped sharply. Combined with the PMI data in July (the forecast data often contains current information), the three confirm each other and the economic operation is relatively sluggish.
Marginal contraction of off-balance sheet financing
In July, the scale of social financing increased by 1.0 1 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2 154 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of/kloc-0.1%,a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%. RMB loans increased by 808.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 477.5 billion yuan; Foreign currency loans decreased by 2,265.438 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55.2 billion yuan. Entrusted loans decreased by 98.7 billion yuan, an increase of 3.7 billion yuan; Trust loans decreased by 67.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 52.9 billion yuan; Undiscounted bank acceptance bills decreased by 456.3 billion yuan, down181900 million yuan. Corporate bond financing increased by 224 billion yuan, an increase of 4.5 billion yuan over the same period of last year; Domestic stock financing of non-financial enterprises was 59.3 billion yuan, an increase of 465.438+0.8 billion yuan. Local government special bonds increased by 438.5 billion yuan, an increase of 253.4 billion yuan year-on-year. Overall, non-standard financing decreased by 622.6 billion yuan, an increase of 654.38+03.4 billion yuan year-on-year, and undiscounted bank acceptance bills were the main drag.
In July, real estate trust loans were supervised, and the sharp decrease of undiscounted bank acceptance bills was mutually confirmed by the short-term credit downturn of enterprises and the low growth rate of M/KLOC-0. At present, the margin of non-standard supervision is tightening, and bill inventory makes it more difficult for enterprises to arbitrage bills. On March 10, at the press conference held at the Press Center of the Second Session of the 13th National People's Congress, Yi Gang, Governor of the Central Bank, and Pan, Vice Governor, responded to the high incidence of bill financing in social integration in March and February this year, saying that "after careful investigation by the People's Bank of China, there is no big idling and arbitrage between bill financing and structured deposits, but some phenomena do exist". It is pointed out that the financial management department encourages the development of bill business with real trade background and will not tolerate arbitrage in bill financing. Since February, the bill business of the banking system has been self-inspected, and bill arbitrage is difficult to carry out.
From another point of view, the gap between the direct coupon rate of bills and the yield of wealth management products with the same maturity has widened again, but the undiscounted bank acceptance bills have remained downward. We believe that the low growth of this item is actually a reflection of the weakening of enterprise activities under the background of weak economic demand. Judging from the current marginal tightening of real estate credit, superimposed economic activity is sluggish, and we predict that it is difficult for non-standard financing to rise rapidly in 20 19.
In July, the issuance of local government special bonds increased significantly, and the net financing amount in July was 438.5 billion yuan; In July, the net financing of corporate bonds was 224 billion yuan. Observing the social financing data, it is difficult to be optimistic about the new RMB loans, and the financing demand of the real economy has returned to a low point; The margin of non-standard financing is tightened again, financial risk events appear in June and July, and the social contraction effect of financial supply and reform may be reflected in July.
The growth rate of M2 has dropped sharply, so it is necessary to reduce the deposit reserve ratio.
In July, the year-on-year growth rate of M2 was 8. 1%, which was significantly lower than that of last month. M 1 recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 3. 1%, a decrease of 1.3% from the previous month and a decrease of 2% from the previous year. The decrease of off-balance sheet financing and insufficient superimposed credit are the reasons for the decline of M2 growth rate. The low growth rate of M 1 and the low growth rate of short-term loans of enterprises confirm each other, and we should continue to observe in the future to determine the bottom range of narrow money growth rate.
Considering the high money multiplier and the decline of M2 growth rate, it is necessary to expand the money multiplier and support the money growth rate by reducing the statutory reserve ratio. In last weekend's monetary policy implementation report, the targeted reduction of the deposit reserve ratio was the first tool for the next policy arrangement, so we believe that the possibility of targeted reduction of the deposit reserve ratio policy in the near future is increasing.
Bond market strategy
We have previously suggested that the real economy is expected to maintain weak demand, and the credit and social financing data in July confirmed our view. The issuance of local government special bonds is making efforts, which may provide some support for social integration during the year. It is worth noting that the reform of the financial supply side continued to exert its strength, and financial risk events occurred in June and July, which triggered the credit stratification in the interbank market. The overall downturn in social financing data this month may be due to the factors that the financial supply-side reform has affected the bank credit supply. At present, the external environment is tightening and the domestic demand in the economy is weakening. The demand for short-term loans by enterprises in the future is an important starting point. We predict that the annual growth rate of social integration will be in the range of10%-1%,and 10.5% will be the median for judging the tightness of policies. As far as the bond market is concerned, we believe that the downward trend of bond market yield will remain unchanged in the short term. The main logic is the downward trend of interest rate driven by asset shortage, and the yield of 10-year treasury bonds will gradually approach the lower range of 2.8-3.2%.
(Article source: Qing Bi Tan)
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