Reduce the pressure of admission and attract new leeks.
Instead of reducing the repayment pressure of the whole society and benefiting the people.
Not to mention the old leek that has already entered the market.
For people who have already bought a house, this policy has no effect except to feel more stupid.
In the past few years, buyers who entered the market at a high level generally signed loan contract interest rates with banks in the form of LPR +BP.
The former is stipulated by the state, while the latter is floating by banks themselves.
The former floats with the market, and the latter bites to death in one breath until you repay the loan. ?
For example, in 20 years, 2 1 year, the highest interest rate for buyers entering the market is 6.3%, and their interest rate should be 4.6%LPR 170bp.
Then, after the interest rate cut this year, the bank couldn't lend, and BP was 0. At this point, the interest rate of incoming home buyers' loans is
4.6%。 For those who have already bought a house, the extra interest rate of 1.7% will not change.
After the vigorous five-year LPR decline 15 basis points some time ago, the interest rate of new houses purchased this year was 4.45%, while the interest rate purchased last year was 6.3%.
How much is the owner of the house? 6. 15%。
In other words, the biggest pressure on a large number of existing property buyers is not the interest rate set by the state, but that banks stopped lending last year and the year before.
Those extra interest rates.
First, the ultimate rescue of the housing market still depends on residents' debts, loans and financialization. I don't know who was talking about the trend of real estate financialization two days ago.
The head has been substantially reversed. Now the biggest problem in the real estate market is that in the face of the expectation that house prices will not rise, the investment demand for housing is basically zero, and
At least at the current price, the housing demand of the house is greater than the demand, and the investment demand is directly zero, resulting in a continuous decline in housing demand.
The structure of the house is in excess of demand.
A reality, we must realize that in recent years, the investment demand for housing has long exceeded the demand for housing, and it was introduced without acknowledging this reality.
All real estate policies are feeding Chinese medicine to patients with advanced cancer.
Now this means of reducing the down payment profit still wants to stimulate the just-needed, but what is really lacking is not the interest, but the house payment, that's right.
At present, house price income exceeds its income level. There are only two ways to really stimulate demand, that is, reducing house prices or increasing income, and others.
Any means is to stimulate investment in the name of "meeting people's reasonable housing needs" and try to save the market through residents and leverage.
The pain point of real investment is not the interest rate, but the expectation of future housing prices. Even if the house price is expected to rise, even 10% interest will be piled up.
People buy it, because the return on investment in leveraged houses will exceed 10%.
Second, but if the expected price of the house drops by 0%
No one will invest in a house, because even if the interest of 0 is finally included in the leverage and transaction costs, it will be a loss.
Therefore, it is necessary to save the market now and continue to make it clear whether it is just needed or invested. There is no fuzzy middle line, or just politics.
The government leveraged the government and platform companies to obtain land, and issued special bonds to save unfinished projects.
However, no matter which means is not really financial, it is more financial.
If there are three red lines in the past housing enterprises, the red line of mortgage stock is the directional tightening of credit.
Then the blood transfusion of real estate by financial institutions such as the central bank and commercial banks this year can be understood as directional water release.
What is the lower limit of interest rate? As we know, the mortgage execution interest rate consists of two parts, LPR+ plus points, and downline generally refers to plus points.
The revised minimum interest rate at the beginning of this year allows the minimum executive interest rate to be lower than LPR by 20 basis points. ?
Thirdly, taking 4.3% lpr as an example, the lowest value of the execution interest rate is 4. 1%. After this policy came out, we can see that the whole country is following it quickly.
In recent years, the loan interest rate of 86 cities is 4. 1%, which is several hundred bp compared with the average interest rate of the first suite in previous years.
Interest rate cuts, and 5.88% was common in previous years. According to the calculation of compound interest, it actually makes a lot of profits.
Basically no accident. After the price increase goes to inventory, the buyer between them has a great chance to be the last stick to deliver the package, especially
From 19 to 2 1, it is the most outrageous group of takers, with high interest, high housing prices and high risks in unfinished business.
Other recipients are not much better.
Where to go, what can be realized is money, not expected income or wealth on paper, and the hidden line is tax. If you can't achieve it, you will pay the price.
Taxes.
Of course, some people say that it is still rising, but in fact it ignores the cost of capital. If you take 5 to 6% of the capital cost, you will invest 2 to 3% every year.
Real estate, and now more than half of the houses can't rise by 2 to 3 percentage points, and there are so many intermediate taxes, which are actually giving local taxes.
The bank's interest, if you choose the same principal and interest, the principal has not been paid in previous years, and it is all interest. How much can you add to smooth it?
What about these costs?
Which generation in China is most likely to be the last wave of housing prices? ?
Fourth, suppose we will make more profits this year. Compared with previous years, it is indeed a lot. Some places acquiesce in selling houses at reduced prices, housing enterprises cut prices and banks cut interest rates.
There are also some special promotion methods, such as giving things. There is still not much reaction in the market, whether it is local auction data or housing enterprises.
Our sales have been halved. If you don't live on policy funds, you have to go back. In the end, it is possible for residents to take over.
Recovering policy support funds, such as this year's special funds for uncompleted residential flats, is the loss of state-owned assets. We can look at the former state-owned assets.
How to support the property market and the stock market, not to mention saving the market, is often to make money. Who will make money in the future? ?
What is worth discussing is that for the actual demand, interest rate cuts are really good for those who have the ability and demand, and the implementation is cancelled.
The lower limit of the interest rate increase point, once determined, will not change until the loan is paid off, if it can really approach the loan interest of the provident fund.
Interest rate is a very big profit for just need. But if you are looking for value-added, you should be careful. The interest rate of 3.25% is the majority.
Urban real estate can't run away, what's more, real estate prices have not cleared any risks at all, and the bubble is still there.
It depends on the rigidity of the demand.
As for many people, it is pessimistic to say that the bubble is clear, and it is an iron law to welcome it after overheating. Many people think that at least one line will not.
I fell too hard.
After the excessive bubble and financialization of real estate, readers try to apply all the factors that make the price of first-line real estate rise forever.
"Support" explains the present value of housing prices in Tokyo, the land prices of major cities in Japan, and
In the 1990s, the peak value has shrunk to110, which is one tenth of that of major commercial real estate including Tokyo.
In fact, the two economies at the same stage of development have too many similarities, such as high savings rate, external circulation, exchange rate and expansionary monetary policy.
Policy, excessive asset speculation, debt trap that entities cannot support bubble economy, rapid rise of household debt ratio, and shortage of Ponzi credit.
The receiver at the bottom of the lost pyramid?