The rising interest rate leads to an increase in repayment pressure. Many users with poor credit feel that the repayment pressure is high, and there is a possibility of default, which has an impact on the recovery of bank loans.
the credit system is divided into two levels, one is preferential credit and the other is subprime credit. Preferential credit, just like the mortgage credit of mainland banks in China, requires more detailed information from the lender, and banks are also strict in auditing, and credit stains are not allowed. The interest rate is calculated according to the interest rate announced by the government.
Sub-prime credit means that the credit review of the lender is wider than the preferential level, which is more suitable for people with low income and credit stains, and the interest rate will be higher than the preferential level.
people who borrow money in the subprime credit market can take the opportunity of rising house prices to replenish their credit, but when the house prices are flat, there is no intermediate price difference, so it is difficult for lenders to repay on time. There was a credit crisis.
So subprime mortgage is a kind of credit. The subprime mortgage crisis is an accurate statement. The credit crisis is a general statement. Because preferential credit has strong repayment ability. So most of the credit crisis is actually the crisis of subprime credit.
2. The impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on China
The losses of domestic financial institutions are limited. Some domestic financial institutions have purchased some financial products involving subprime loans. Because China's domestic regulatory authorities still strictly control financial institutions to engage in overseas credit derivatives transactions, the investment scale of these banks is not large. Although there is no clear loss data, the management of these banks generally said that the losses caused by the small proportion of subprime loans have little impact on the overall operation of the company, and a small amount of losses are also within the range that banks can bear. With the increasing linkage of domestic and international financial markets, the continuous turmoil of financial markets in developed countries will certainly have a negative transmission effect on China's domestic financial market. On the one hand, it will directly aggravate the turmoil in the domestic financial market; On the other hand, the continuous turmoil in the external market will affect the long-term expectations of economic entities on the China market from the psychological level.
Export growth may slow down. In the "troika" that drives China's economic growth, exports occupy a very important position. From the perspective of economic aggregate, the proportion of exports in GDP has been rising, exceeding 1/3 in 26. Although the growth rate declined in 27, it still increased by 25.7%. In terms of employment, there are more than 8 million employees in foreign trade enterprises, including nearly 4 million in processing trade. Since 21, among all foreign exports, the proportion of China's exports to the United States has remained above 21%, and the export growth rate is also very fast. As foreign trade plays a very important role in China's current economic growth, and the United States is one of the largest sources of trade surplus in China, the slowdown of the American economy and the global credit crunch will tighten China's overall external environment.
Monetary policy is faced with a dilemma, and the complexity and changefulness of the global economy are severely challenging China's monetary policy. On the one hand, major economies such as the United States and Europe began to experience credit contraction and corporate profits decline, and the possibility of economic growth slowing down or even recession increased. On the other hand, the global real estate, stock and other price shocks have intensified, and the prices of grain, gold, oil and other commodities in the international market denominated in US dollars have continued to rise, and the global inflationary pressure has increased. Therefore, China has to face not only the pressure of interest rate cuts in the United States, but also the pressure of domestic inflation, which makes monetary policy face a dilemma.
the imbalance of international payments may aggravate the potential risks and uncertainties of global economic operation since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. As China's opening to the outside world is getting higher and higher, the turmoil in overseas markets may affect the scale and speed of cross-border capital flows, making it more difficult to adjust funds, and once a global financial crisis occurs, it may increase the risk of fluctuations in China's international payments. The expectation of RMB appreciation may increase. In the case of weak economic growth in the United States, loose monetary policy and weak dollar exchange rate policy may be adopted to deal with the negative impact caused by the subprime mortgage crisis, which may aggravate the expectation of RMB appreciation. The demand for RMB exchange rate system reform in non-dollar currency areas may increase, and the asymmetric exchange rate structure system will bring new pressure to RMB appreciation.
the risk of overseas investment increases. from the perspective of enterprises' "going global", the impact of American subprime mortgage crisis on China enterprises' "going global"
can be divided into two aspects: favorable and unfavorable. Beneficially, the subprime mortgage crisis helps Chinese financial institutions to bypass the market access threshold and barriers to mergers and acquisitions, expand their financial investment in the United States at a relatively reasonable cost, accelerate the internationalization through acquisitions, equity participation and capital injection, and provide efficient and convenient financial support for "going out" enterprises while striving to improve their own development level. Disadvantageously, the current turmoil in the international financial market and monetary tightening will undoubtedly increase the financing risk and investment risk of Chinese enterprises going global. Moreover, with the deepening of the subprime mortgage crisis, investors' risk aversion and leaving mood will lead to the revaluation of higher-level mortgage-backed securities, thus endangering the safety and profitability of overseas investment of domestic financial institutions. 3. The lesson of the subprime mortgage crisis for China
Financial institutions should always put risk control first.
Under the background of sustained and rapid economic growth and abundant liquidity, investors are more optimistic about the prospects of economic development and often underestimate risks. However, economic development is cyclical, and the assets purchased by economic subjects in the rising stage of the economic cycle based on blind optimism are not necessarily high-quality assets. Although it is certain that China's situation is different from that of the United States, it is necessary for China's financial institutions, including commercial banks, to learn from the losses suffered by state-owned commercial banks such as the United States and Europe in this crisis, keep a clear head, fully estimate risks from the perspective of preventing economic cycle fluctuations and external shocks, and realize their own steady operation and sustainable development.
Strengthen innovation and improve supervision.
In the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, on the one hand, financial innovation dispersed the risks in the American real estate financing market through extensive securitization, on the other hand, it also aggravated the infectivity and impact of financial risks, resulting in incalculable losses. Therefore, China should constantly strengthen financial innovation and improve the supervision of related products.
steadily promoting capital account convertibility
objectively speaking, in the subprime mortgage crisis, the established policy of steadily promoting capital account convertibility has made great contributions to isolating overseas financial risks. As a new market economy, moderate foreign exchange management is an important "firewall" to resist the impact of international hot money in the case of many defects in its own economic and financial structure. Especially with the deepening of China's financial opening up, actively and steadily promoting capital account convertibility can effectively prevent the relatively fragile financial system from being completely exposed to the international economic environment and reduce various external uncertainties. In view of this, China's economic development must fully consider the impact of global economic changes and take precautions to resolve the financial foreign exchange market risks.
4. What does this economic crisis inspire the contemporary youth in China?
We should constantly improve ourselves when growing up, and discover our own shortcomings immediately.
Don't overdraw excessively when spending, but do what we can.
when you encounter unexpected things, you should be calm, take them seriously and try to solve them.