There are many ways to repay the mortgage. The biggest misunderstanding is that I can't keep the money because of the low interest rate of the bank where the money is deposited, so I have to repay the mortgage in advance. After a few years of buying a house with a loan, many people have increased their income and have the ability to repay the loan in advance. Due to the influence of traditional ideas, China people are particularly sensitive to debt and unwilling to bear it. According to the data of China Family Finance Research and Research Center, the average mortgage repayment period of families in China is 14 years. This is more than what we often hear in our lives? 30 years of miserable house slave life? Much shorter.
However, is it really good for you to repay the loan in advance? 360 mortgage (fangdai 123) reminds: if you have money, you don't have to rush to repay the mortgage, and then decide according to the situation.
Why not pay the mortgage quickly? Because the future monthly payment is likely to become worthless! Now the money in hand can be consumed, saved and invested, which brings you instant enjoyment and is more valuable than the money in the future!
It is not cost-effective to repay the loan in advance because of inflation. Which purchasing power is stronger, 100 yuan in the 1990s or 100 yuan now? Of course, it was 100 yuan in the 1990s, because at that time, the total income was small, so it can be said that there was little cash circulating in the society. Compared with the beginning, there is inflation now. Although the current bank interest of 100 yuan is not high, there are many reliable investment and financial management methods in the market, and it is not difficult for the annual rate of return to outperform inflation.
Is inflation a good thing or a bad thing?
First of all, it should be clear that inflation is not a bad thing. With the development of economy and the improvement of social productivity, inflation will inevitably occur. Only hyperinflation should be contained. How to judge whether inflation is benign or malignant?
As long as the purchasing power of income per unit working hours is improving, inflation is benign. For example, I used to work in a restaurant 1 hour and earned 10 yuan, so I could buy two loaves of bread. Now I work in a restaurant and earn 50 yuan, so I can buy five loaves of bread. Although the unit price of bread has risen from 5 yuan to 10 yuan, the purchasing power of labor has increased from 2 to 5 per unit time. This kind of economic development is benign. The more purchasing power is improved, the better the momentum of economic development.
The situation in Zimbabwe may be as follows: in the past, working 1 hour, earning 10 yuan can buy two loaves, but now working 1 hour, earning 100 yuan can only buy 1 loaf. This is hyperinflation.
We can't help asking: Is inflation serious in China now?
To answer this question, we must first know what will affect inflation.
1 The more money supply, the more serious inflation.
According to the data of China in the past 26 years (1990 to 20 15), (M2) the money supply increased by 2 1.0% annually! But China's real GDP grew by 9.9% on average. However, it should be noted that the amount of cash plus savings currency is a concept of time, which changes all the time. By the end of 20 15, the balance was 139.23 trillion yuan. GDP is a cyclical concept, which calculates the amount per unit time. In 20 15, the total GDP of China was 67.67 trillion. The two cannot be compared in quantity.
On the other hand, the money supply in society has increased so much. Where's the money, money, money?
The answer is: since money is not converted into GDP, it can only be converted into prices! Let's look at the past years in China.
The national consumer price level (CPI) and house prices are rising year by year.
(Note: It is suggested that the initial base values of CPI and house price are 100. )
From 1980 to 20 15, the national consumer price level (CPI) increased by about 5.06% annually. From 1987 to 20 15, the average annual increase of house prices (national real estate sales divided by sales area) is 10.6%. In other words, the increase of money supply leads to inflation, and the increase of house prices far exceeds the increase of CPI, which shows that inflation is particularly obvious in house prices! The reason is easy to understand. The value-added property of real estate determines that it becomes the best place for residents to invest and store their wealth.
Chen Long, former vice president of cheung kong graduate school of business, said earlier that by combing the data of China 1990 to 20 13, it was found that the correlation between the increase of house prices and the growth rate of cash plus savings (M2) was as high as 7 1%.
It should also be noted that there is a two-way causal relationship between money supply and inflation. In other words, it is not only the increase of money supply that aggravates inflation; Accordingly, the intensification of inflation has led to an increase in the market demand for money, forcing the central bank to issue more banknotes and increase the money supply.
2GDP increases, curbing inflation in the short term and aggravating inflation in the long term.
The increase of GDP will lead to the increase of commodity supply in the short term, so the price level will drop and the purchasing power will increase, which will play a certain role in curbing inflation.
In the long run, the increase of purchasing power caused by the increase of GDP will increase the idle funds in society, which will be invested in economic life and the money supply in society will be more, so it will aggravate inflation in the long run.
3 RMB depreciation will aggravate inflation in the short term and restrain inflation in the long term.
In the short term, the depreciation of RMB will lead to the price increase of goods imported from China. The rise in the prices of imported commodities, especially bulk raw materials (crude oil and iron ore), will drive up the prices of other commodities and the overall level of CPI. Therefore, in the short term, RMB depreciation will aggravate inflation to some extent.
In the long run, the depreciation of RMB will lead to a large outflow of foreign exchange, a decrease in foreign exchange holdings, and a decrease in the central bank's demand for foreign exchange, so the demand for issuing RMB will weaken. Therefore, the reduction of the issuance of base money and the reduction of social money supply can curb inflation to a certain extent.
4 inflation itself
Can inflation itself affect inflation? Yes, and this influence is very huge! Social and economic operation is like a big machine with strong inertia. One of the reasons is that in the cycle of price rise or fall, the rise and fall cycles of different products are not consistent. The price rise and fall of some products will be transmitted to other products one after another, which forms the inflation inertia.
The inertia of inflation is due to the lag of market regulation and psychological expectation. In the context of sustained inflation, people's psychology has formed new inflation expectations. Just like Oedipus in the prophecy, this psychological expectation has the characteristics of self-realization. That is to say, people will unconsciously push things in the direction of prediction according to prediction.
Inflation in the previous unit time can still have a significant impact on the price in the next unit time. However, inflation, GDP and exchange rate have a long-term and balanced self-recovery and adjustment mechanism in the process of influencing inflation. Like any commodity, if the price is too high some time ago, it will be lowered in a high probability. Explain it briefly, right? The higher, the lower? . No matter whether the current inflation is high or low, it will return to normal level sooner or later.
What is the inflation situation in China?
The normal economy is like this: high inflation and high interest rates; Or low inflation and low interest rates.
The dangerous economy is like this: high inflation and low interest rates; Or low inflation and high interest rates.
Both the United States and Japan are now in the stage of low inflation and low interest rates.
At the beginning of 20 16, the benchmark interest rate given by the Federal Reserve was 0.25% to 0.5%. In 20 15, the CPI of the United States only increased by 0.7%, the second slowest growth rate in 50 years. The GDP growth rate is 2.4%. Consistent with 20 14.
In 20 15, Japan's annual real GDP growth rate was only 0.4%, and CPI increased by 0.8% year-on-year. In 20 14, Japan's GDP increased by 0.0% and CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year. Under what circumstances, the real GDP growth rate is 0, but the CPI growth rate is positive? One example is hyperinflation. Another situation is that the population is decreasing!
At the end of 20127.34 million in Japan, 20 14 years1271300,000,127105. The population is decreasing. Although the social GDP growth rate is 0, the per capita GDP has increased and the per capita purchasing power has increased, resulting in a positive CPI growth rate.
India is a bit like China in the past. India's GDP growth rate in 20 14-20 15 is 7.3% and CPI is 6.3%. Inflation is serious. During the eight years from 2007 to 20 15, India's housing prices rose by 72.3%, which was the highest among 18 major economies. Brazil ranked second with an increase of 6 1.3%.
From 2003 to 20 13, China was in the stage of high inflation and high interest rate. Now it has just begun to enter the stage of low inflation and low interest rate. At present, the central bank's three-year deposit rate is 2.75%, the CPI growth rate in 20 15 years is10.4%, and the GDP growth rate in 20 15 years is 6.9%.
Judging from the difference between CPI growth rate and GDP, people's purchasing power has been greatly improved. However, CPI weighs all commodities to measure the price increase, and the prices of some commodities far exceed the CPI growth rate. For example, the price of pork rises by 9.5% every year. There is little difference in the consumption demand of pork in different places, and there is little difference in the price increase of pork in cities across the country, but the house price is not. According to the data of 100-city house prices of China Index Academy, the house prices of first-tier cities rose by 17.2% in 20 15 years, while the average house prices of 100 cities nationwide rose by 4. 15%. The difference of real estate prices in different places determines the society? Can't afford a house? The sound ratio is much higher? Can't afford meat? Sound.
Should loan buyers repay loans in advance?
Is there a relationship between early repayment of loans and inflation? Normally, it doesn't matter. Because under high inflation, the currency depreciates, but the interest rate will also increase. For example, after 10 years, 100 yuan is only equivalent to 10 yuan today. Do you think the bank will let you repay the loan at the interest rate of 4.9%? No, if the money was worthless at that time, the central bank would probably raise the interest rate, so that your monthly payment after 10 is equivalent to your monthly payment today.
So the central bank may raise interest rates in the future, and there is nothing to lose if you repay the loan in advance now. However, in the future, the central bank may also lower interest rates. Now you have repaid the loan in advance, and you haven't made any money.
Under the normal economic environment, there is little difference between repaying loans in advance and not repaying loans in advance. Low inflation and high interest rates generally do not occur unless it is the North Korean government.
There is another situation, remember not to repay the loan in advance! That is the situation of high inflation and low interest rate. This situation is that under the background of high inflation, economic development is weak, and the government is forced to lower interest rates in order to revitalize the economy. Is that so? Stagflation? .
To put it simply, Stagflation? There may be three reasons: first, the RMB exchange rate collapsed, and the import price of bulk commodities continued to rebound, leading to imported inflation; Second, domestic commodity supply is insufficient, and prices continue to rise, leading to endogenous inflation; Third, the central bank's currency overshoot leads to inflation, while the economy continues to slump.
Historically, the United States, Germany, South Korea, Taiwan Province Province and Latin America have all experienced economic events? Stagflation? . The reasons are all the same? Economic transformation and monetary easing? Related. During the transition period, the economic growth rate is declining, and it is difficult to effectively stop the downward trend of the economy by counter-cyclical total stimulus and loose fiscal and monetary policies. If there are external factors at this time, such as energy crisis, it will easily happen? Stagflation? .
Will China appear? Low interest rates and high inflation? What will happen in the future? Stagflation? What about the risks? Those economic experts can't tell clearly, and they can't predict the financing situation of 360 mortgage (fangdai 123). But we can tell you that the best decision is: save enough money to repay the loan in advance, but don't pay it back first. If the interest rate does not rise, you can repay the loan on time. If the interest rate rises, you can repay the loan in advance immediately.
"Two people go to the bank to get a mortgage, and he still has tens of thousands less than him. What may be the reason? " Attention? Rong 360 mortgage? (fangdai 123) micro signal, reply? Why? Tell the truth about saving money at once.