This is a very real question. I will try to answer this question from the perspective of interest rates and realistic economic development factors.

When ordinary people deposit money in banks, banks generally give you two types of options: demand deposits and time deposits. Current and time deposits have different interest rates for different deposit amounts, and the deposit interest rates of different banks will also be different. However, the interest rates of major state-owned banks will basically rise by a certain percentage from the central bank's benchmark interest rate.

The current central bank’s benchmark deposit interest rates are as follows: demand deposits: 0.35%; time deposits: three-month interest rate 1.10%; half-year interest rate 1.30%; one-year interest rate 1.50%; two-year interest rate 2.10%; three-year interest rate 2.75%; the five-year interest rate is not specified but is at least around 5%.

The above interest rates are set by the central bank, but at different levels of banks, the interest rates will fluctuate to a certain extent based on the central bank. For example, the one-year regular interest rate of several major national banks can reach 1.75%, and the one-year regular interest rate of medium-sized banks can reach 2%. The one-year regular interest rate of credit unions, postal banks, and city commercial banks can reach 2.2%.

At the same time, in order to attract deposits, many banks have also launched large-denomination certificate of deposit business. The interest rates of this business have increased even more than ordinary regular interest rates. For example, the interest rate of large-amount 3-year deposits can Reaching 3.8%-4.1%, some banks have launched large-amount deposits with a five-year term that can reach 5.5%. In other words, if you deposit 1 million in the bank for 5 years, you can get 250,000 in interest.

Then, we will calculate it based on the current highest interest rate of 5.5% for a 5-year period, and deposit and withdraw it in 6 times. By 2025, principal and interest of 1.25 million can be obtained. By 2030, principal and interest can be obtained of 1.56 million. By 2035, principal and interest can be obtained of 1.95 million. By 2040, principal and interest can be obtained of 2.43 million. By 2045, principal and interest can be obtained of 3.03 million. By 2050, the principal and interest will be 3.78 million.

In other words, in the 30 years from 2021 to 2050, without considering other factors, based on the 5-year fixed term of 5.5%, and depositing the fixed term in 6 installments, you can get a maximum principal and interest of 3.78 million. The principal has increased 2.78 times in 30 years, which is considered a relatively stable and high-yield investment.

As of 2020, the average house price in new first-tier cities in mainland China has exceeded 15,000, and the core areas of second-tier cities such as Kunming, Hefei, Fuzhou, Harbin, Jinan, Changchun, and Shijiazhuang have also 15,000 hovered around. Therefore, a house of 100 square meters will cost 1.5 million if paid in full.

Therefore, the full payment of 1 million should not be able to buy a house in the main city, and can only be mortgaged. However, if you take out a mortgage, you can buy two houses in these cities. The subject can live in one unit and rent out the other unit. So how much will these two houses be worth in 30 years?

This has something to do with China’s current economic structure and population structure. In China's current economic structure, the housing market has been heating up from 2015 to 2020. The state is also constantly suppressing housing prices in order to control housing prices so that people can afford to buy and live in houses.

It should be said that the people who just need it have completed the purchase of property, and few people have a second house in their hands. So 30 years from now, it will actually be the time when the children of today’s generation born in the 1980s will get married and start a business. By then, how big will the children born in the 1980s need to buy houses?

Furthermore, Chinese society is currently entering a period of change. The population is aging seriously, childcare costs are increasing, and the younger generation does not have a strong desire to have children. This also means that the number of people who are in urgent need of buying houses in 30 years will not be particularly large. .

What about the appreciation space of the house itself? In the past 30 years, housing prices in the first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have increased 10-20 times. For example, a house in the third ring road in Beijing used to cost 4,000 yuan per square meter, but now it is 80,000 yuan per square meter. But that’s only in first-tier cities. What about second-tier cities?

Taking Xi'an, my city, as an example, it took 10 years for the price of a house to increase from 3,000 to 15,000. It seemed to have increased four times, but because the reserve price was low. If you want to triple the price from 15,000 to 60,000, it will take at least 50 years because the floor price of housing is high.

In fact, taking the current housing prices as an example, housing prices in 30 years will increase by up to 1.5 times, which is to reach 37,000 per square meter, and this does not include inflation. 30 years later, the subject has just paid off the bank loan and owns two 100-square-meter houses with a total market value of 7.4 million, but minus the down payment of 1 million for the two houses, the monthly payment for the two houses over 30 years is 4 million (each house 70% of the bank loan is 1.05 million, with principal and interest repayment of 2 million, two sets of loans totaling 4 million), with a total birth of 2.4 million. This is surplus money, but this money is a house and cannot be liquidated yet.

Based on the above analysis, it seems that depositing money in a bank is more profitable than buying a house. However, the requirements for both are relatively strict. For example, the bank must deposit funds regularly for 5 years and in large amounts. The house is also required to be kept in hand after purchase and not traded.

In fact, I think that for property exceeding a certain amount, you should not make a financial plan for more than 10 years, but a 3-5 year financial plan, which is more flexible and adaptable. It can also increase the value of your property when you need it.

What's more, bank interest rates and the increase in housing prices are extremely uncontrollable factors. If you rashly make a 30-year investment of 1 million, no one can guarantee that there will be any black swan events in these 30 years. Therefore, I still suggest that the questioner only make a short-term financial plan for 3-5 years. The shorter the time, the easier it will be for you to be sure.

The above is my opinion.

From a financial and business perspective, cash may be more appropriate for future expectations. In 2050, there are still thirty years left. Most people who will get married will be people born around 2030. Judging from China's current birth rate, it is gradually decreasing. Then the number of people born at that time will be relatively small. Parents in 2030 will Basically, they are all born in 2010. During this period, real estate is developing rapidly. Many people will own houses. At that time, there will be a situation where there are few people in houses. There will definitely be an oversupply, especially with the current regulation of housing prices. Real estate is not a universal store of value.

And for a capital of 1 million, through reasonable value-added means, the worst can reach an annual income of 40,000, but through rational allocation, it can basically achieve an income of 8-10%, an annual profit of 100,000, three It can reach 3 million in ten years. Including the original principal, there will be 4 million. This is for financial management, but if it is invested in business, this value may be enlarged, and the enlarged opportunity may be to buy several houses. The most important thing in doing business is cash flow. As real estate, the advantage of real estate over cash is still weaker.

Especially in some counties, the room for future appreciation is relatively small. More and more people prefer big cities, leading to a shrinking population. In the future, houses here will see a big decline.

Houses in third- and fourth-tier cities are slightly better. If you spend 1 million in a big city, you may not be able to buy a house. So it depends on your occupation and current income. It may be more realistic to combine the location of the city and its future development space.

Houses and Deposits In the past, people chose to buy a house as an investment without any reason. After 2020, you will have to weigh it again when buying a house and making a deposit. Compare the appreciation space capacity of the house and the cash return capacity of 1 million, and it will take up to 30 years until 2050. In 30 years, I have to consider which one is more suitable, house or cash, from many aspects.

Consider the comparison between house and cash from the perspective of income return.

The five-year deposit income of 1 million yuan in bank deposits is up to 4%, and the annual return is 40,000 yuan. The total return income in 30 years is 1.32 million yuan, and the total amount plus bank interest is 232 Ten thousand yuan, this method of income is the safest and has the lowest risk coefficient.

The rate of return for a deposit of 1 million for those who know how to invest is far beyond our imagination. The greater the investment risk, the higher the return and profit. The stock market is also the most common channel for investment. The stock market has skyrocketed recently, and many people have made a 30% return profit within a week. Investment channels are not limited to the stock market, there are various investment channels such as the fund market, industry, etc.

In such a long time as 30 years, no one can say that the profit may have doubled dozens of times, or there may be no loss at all

If you buy a house in a third-tier city for 1 million without a mortgage, Three-bedroom apartment. According to the mortgage method, you can buy a very good three-bedroom apartment in second-tier cities. At present, the greatest potential for housing appreciation in our country is concentrated in second-tier cities. First-tier cities are gradually reaching saturation. Beijing and Shanghai have already adopted policies to restrict population. As Guangzhou and Shenzhen develop over time, they will also impose these policy restrictions, and eventually the population will flow to the development of second-tier cities.

A down payment of 1 million can buy a house worth about 3.3 million yuan. Calculated by a 5% appreciation of the house every year, the total return after 30 years will be 5.44 million yuan, with a total amount of 8.74 million yuan. These are ideal conditions. As the population gradually decreases in 2030, the urbanization rate will gradually reach the target in 2030. More importantly, the aging of the population will accelerate after 2030. Many People are gradually leaving big cities and returning to rural areas for retirement. Therefore, we cannot guarantee that the price of the house will continue to rise, and there is no way to predict the year in which the house price will rise. However, it is almost impossible to increase the value to a total price of 8.74 million.

In the past 10 years, we have invested money in real estate and have achieved good returns. After 2030, if we continue to invest in the real estate market, it may be in a state of sideways trading. , or the price of houses has dropped, the number of people buying houses after 2000 and 10 is gradually decreasing, and the birth rate is also decreasing

Try to invest as much as possible after 2030 Selling real estate into cash is now a gradual process. In an era that pays attention to cash flow, real estate is a fixed asset. As time goes by, the possibility of realizing it will be greatly reduced.

Considering the resources that a house brings, you must choose a house.

Houses bring us obvious resource advantages. These resources cannot be obtained unless we spend a lot of money. Therefore, the purchase of a house brings us security for the next two generations.

First of all, a house brings us a certain degree of security in living. Without a house, we can only choose to rent. In this way, we cannot guarantee that we will not be evicted or have the rent increased, etc. , and if we buy a house, we no longer have to consider such issues. At least we will have a stable job and stable living.

The security of educational resources. Once you have a house, you can divide areas around the house for study. This is an important issue to ensure that children go to school. The issue of schooling for the next generation of children is also solved. Same guarantee.

Not only can marriage problems be solved, but now the marriage situation of the next generation of children can also be solved. One house brings resource advantages to both generations. How will we pursue passion for houses after 2050? Or will houses no longer be pursued as products?

Food, clothing, housing and transportation are things we pursue all our lives, but as time goes by, the popularity of housing is also declining. Looking at big cities in developed countries around the world, the price of houses is still very expensive. However, the price of houses in non-key cities is indeed very cheap, which creates a huge sense of gap.

With the changes in the population, the elderly have returned to rural life, while young people continue to work hard in big cities. Whether it is the United States, Japan, or Singapore, the enthusiasm for buying a house is not very high. Instead, they choose a Treat it with a normal attitude, but the real estate speculators have gradually withdrawn from the real estate market.

As time goes by, the comparison between fixed assets and cash will become more and more obvious.

As long as the number of people buying houses is getting smaller and smaller and will not change easily after stabilization, our entire real estate market will be inactive. It is more difficult to sell a house. The advantage of a house is that it is very If a good one is recognized by the bank, it will further improve its creditworthiness in terms of our loan and financing capabilities.

A fund of 1 million can be used to deal with various special situations. Cash can be moved at any time, unlike fixed assets.

Summary:

When you need to use a house for consultation, it is difficult to choose a house. After all, it is difficult to obtain so many resources through other means except the house. In the past 10 years, houses in second-tier cities can still be invested. After 2030, there will be very little room for investment appreciation.

And we have good investment and control capabilities. In this regard, we can choose to deposit 1 million in funds, which will give us a rate of return no less than that of a house.

I am interested in real estate. I am familiar with the after-sales process of real estate transactions, and have professional knowledge on first-hand housing sales and real estate and a series of real estate issues. Welcome everyone to leave a message to discuss.