In reality, we often see various statistical indicators of average deposits, but rarely see average liabilities or the number of people in debt. So how many people in China are currently in debt? At present, there are no relevant statistics on the number of debtors in our country, but some data can be used to infer the number of debtors.

According to data released by the People's Bank of China, by the end of 2020, the scale of loans to residents in my country has reached 63.2 trillion yuan, of which 40.8 trillion yuan is medium and long-term consumer loans (housing mortgages, etc.), accounting for 64.6%; Short-term consumer loans (credit cards, etc.) were 8.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 13.9%; operating loans (production and operation) were 13.6 trillion yuan, accounting for 21.5%.

The total amount of medium and long-term loans is approximately 40.8 trillion yuan, mainly housing mortgage loans, renovation loans, etc. As we all know, the scale of domestic housing loans is generally large, ranging from hundreds of thousands to several million yuan. But over time, some people have paid off their loans, so the loan balances vary. We calculate based on the average loan of 400,000 yuan, then currently China has about 40.8 trillion yuan/400,000 people with mortgage debt.

Short-term consumer loans are mainly used for credit card consumption, small loans, etc. Generally, they are small amounts, such as credit card purchases, mainly between a few thousand yuan to two to thirty thousand yuan. So we take an average of 20,000 yuan for short-term consumer loans, so the current population of short-term consumer loans in China is about 8.8 trillion yuan/20,000 yuan = 440 million people (this matches the number of credit card issuances in China. As of 2021, the second At the end of the quarter, the number of credit cards issued in China reached 79

Operational loans are mainly used for individuals to start small and micro businesses or individual industrial and commercial households, with relatively high amounts, generally ranging from hundreds of thousands to several million yuan. Does not vary. If we take an average of 500,000 yuan, then the number of individuals participating in business loans is approximately: 13.6 trillion/500,000 = 27.2 million people.

The total number of loans in the above three groups is as high as: 10244002720. Ten thousand yuan = 569.2 million yuan. Of course, some of the above are overlapping (that is, two or three loans at the same time). If we assume that this group is about 70 million, then excluding duplication, the number of people with debts in commercial banks in my country is expected to be. Reaching nearly 500 million people. Don’t think you are young, but know that the age at which banks can lend money is very small. It is estimated that the majority of people in China can buy a house. You still need a loan, as shown below. From 2000 to the first 11 months of 2020, the sales area of ??commercial housing nationwide has exceeded 1.5265 million square meters, calculated based on the average mortgage time of 20 years (all settled before 20 years). The sales area of ??commercial housing is estimated to be more than 2.3 million square meters (the sales area from 2000 to 2009 will be relatively less), the total is: 2.3 million square meters/100 square meters = 230 million units. It is said that at least 230 million people are in debt (exceeding the 102 million people calculated above

In addition to credit cards, many young people now also use online loans such as Huabei, Jiebei, IOUs or small loans. In the case of my wife For example, she has never had a credit card, but she uses Huabei every month. Ant Financial’s prospectus for listing in 2020 shows that in 2019, the number of users of the Ant Digital Technology Platform reached 729 million, and the asset management scale facilitated by the financial platform was as high as 100 million. 4.1 trillion yuan, and the annual premiums contributed by the insurance platform are 518 yuan. Two years have passed, including IOUs, small loans, Baidu Youqianhua, etc. And there are at least 600 million online loan customers through formal channels, which is more than credit card customers. There are more (after all, it is easier to obtain credit on these platforms than from banks)

These loans are common channels, but in reality many people have participated in other loans, such as: P2P loans, private loans, Various informal online loans, loans from auto finance companies (the scale of auto finance assets in 2020 is about 980 billion), etc. In reality, not everyone can get a loan from a bank, so the scale of loans from the above-mentioned non-bank channels is estimated. Not small. We conservatively estimate that this group of people ranges from tens to hundreds of millions.

Based on the above data and excluding duplication, it is estimated that the number of people in debt in our country is no less than 700 million (that is, nearly 80% of the working-age population is in debt). Therefore, it is normal for China to have debts, but it is abnormal for China not to have debts. As the old saying goes, many people work for financial institutions in the first half of their lives and for hospitals in the second half of their lives! Related Q&A: How much debt is reasonable? Can I still get a loan with high debt?

With the rise of the Internet economy, people's consumption concepts and behaviors have also undergone tremendous changes compared with before. More and more people have started their own excessive consumption and become a "debt family".

But debt is not an absolute bad thing. As long as it is used appropriately, it can meet the demand for funds in advance. It is a normal economic and financial phenomenon.

Therefore, everyone should always be vigilant about their own financial situation and learn to evaluate their own debt capabilities so that they will not bear too much pressure in their daily lives.

If you don’t know what kind of debt situation is reasonable, you can refer to the 28/36 rule of thumb as the final bottom line for debt.

What is the 28/36 rule of thumb

The real estate-related expenses of an individual or family (including mortgage repayments, property management fees, real estate taxes, house insurance, etc.) should not exceed the income of the same period 28.

The total liabilities (real estate-related expenses, car loans, credit card liabilities, online small loans, other liabilities) shall not exceed 36% of the income for the same period.

Everyone’s income level is different, and the amount of debt they can bear is also different. However, by following this rule of thumb, you will not be burdened with excessive financial pressure.

Will the loan be rejected if the debt is too high?

If the debt is too high for various reasons, then you must be mentally prepared that the loan will most likely be rejected.

But this is not absolute, because the debt ratio that each company or person can bear is different, and the lending institution will also analyze it based on the actual situation of the loan during the review process.

For example, if the borrower's liabilities are relatively high, but the borrower's cash flow is relatively good, then the lending institution may also lend money to the borrower.

On the contrary, even if some borrowers have a relatively low debt ratio, if their cash flow is poor and it is difficult to realize their assets, then the lending institution is likely to reject it.

So high debt does not necessarily mean that the loan will be rejected. During the actual review process, the lending institution will consider the borrower’s assets, liabilities, cash flow, personal and family expenses and other factors, comprehensively Come to a conclusion.

How to get a loan if the debt is too high

Although debt is a normal economic behavior, the debt ratio is an item that banks must check. If the debt ratio is too high, the bank will consider it The probability of borrowers becoming insolvent is high, lending risks are high, and loans can easily be rejected.

But this does not mean that people with high debt cannot get loans at all.

First of all, you can choose a lending institution with lower thresholds. For example, normal bank loans require that the borrower's debt cannot exceed 50%, but some loose commercial banks or small lending institutions have a higher tolerance for liabilities, and there is loan space within 70%.

Secondly, it can provide high-value collateral. It is very difficult for groups with high debt levels to apply for unsecured loans. But if you can provide valuable collateral, that's another matter. With collateral as a guarantee, you can still get a chance to get a successful loan with a high debt ratio.

Finally, you can also use personal credit to make up for it. If you have a good credit history, even if your debt is relatively high, the lender may approve the loan based on your good repayment record. Therefore, frequent use of credit cards for consumption or loans, and maintaining a good repayment record will also be helpful for loans.

Be sure to plan the current economic situation well at ordinary times

To avoid being overwhelmed when emergencies arise!

If you have any loan questions, you can come to us for consultation. ——Ai Rongji