Analysts said that behind the "mortgage price increase" is the tight loan amount and strong loan demand, and the future regulation measures and mortgage interest rate changes will be more "one city, one policy".
The four major banks took the lead.
After the Guangzhou Housing and Construction Bureau severely cracked down on illegal activities such as driving up housing prices, the mortgage prices of the four major banks in Guangzhou rose from 65438 to1October 27. According to the LPR(4.65%) announced by the central bank on October 20th, 65438/KLOC-0, the loan interest rates for the first and second homes in Guangzhou were raised to 5.2% and 5.4% respectively.
The person in charge of the credit business of Guangzhou Branch of a state-owned bank said that the loan amount of his branch is relatively tight at present, and the loan time is significantly longer than before. Recently, the regulatory authorities conducted interviews with some banks, and increased the control over individual housing loans.
Mortgage interest rates have risen, and some people are happy and others are worried. "I'm suddenly glad I bought a house a few years ago." A buyer who has "got on the bus" said. "For the' Guangpiao' who joined in July, the pressure is even greater." Another "just-needed family" expressed his helplessness.
The increase in mortgage interest rates only involves the four major banks. China securities journal consulted some joint-stock commercial banks in Guangzhou. As of press time, they all replied that they had not received similar notice. However, some banks said that the mortgage amount is tight.
China securities journal reporter called several branches of state-owned banks and joint-stock banks in Beijing and Shanghai, and the staff all said that they had not received the notice of raising the loan interest rate. However, some outlets said that the current mortgage business needs to be queued.
The supply and demand of mortgage loans have changed.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, told the china securities journal that the mortgage loans of the four major banks are relatively large, and adjusting interest rates has a weathervane significance. The interest rates of the first and second home loans have been adjusted, which reflects the tightening orientation of credit policy.
Analysts said that the reason for the above situation is that the relationship between supply and demand of mortgage loans has changed.
From the supply side, on June 5438+February 3, 20201,the central bank and the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on Establishing the Management System of Real Estate Loan Concentration of Banking Financial Institutions, which divided banks into different grades and set different "two red lines" indicators accordingly; Set a transition period for institutions that exceed the upper limit and establish a regional differential adjustment mechanism. From the demand side, in 2020, the activity of the transaction atmosphere in Guangzhou property market will be significantly improved, and there will be a "tail-climbing market" at the end of the year.
Ceng Gang, deputy director of the National Finance and Development Laboratory, said that the phenomenon in Guangzhou was caused by policy regulation and local supply and demand, and there were great differences among different banks. Under the above regulatory framework, some banks may exceed the limit, and their mortgage growth rate cannot exceed the average loan growth rate. Although there are still new loan quotas, the growth rate has slowed down. Different regions have different needs. In some places, the demand is relatively strong, new loans can not meet the demand, and prices have risen. In some places, quotas are abundant and prices will not rise.
Big cities tighten control policies
Analysts said that the total scale of 202 1 bank mortgage lending has been tightened, and the future mortgage regulation and interest rate changes will be more "one city, one policy".
"Guangzhou's policy further illustrates the current tightening trend of real estate policies in big cities." Yan Yuejin said that from the previous tightening of Shenzhen's property market regulation policy to the recent upgrading of Shanghai's property market regulation policy, Hangzhou's property market regulation policy has been patched, indicating that big cities are constantly increasing the regulation of the property market.
Yan Yuejin said that credit tightening will restrict market transactions and contribute to market stability, but it is necessary to guard against risks such as panic buying and default of existing purchase contracts, and truly promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
Analysts believe that the purpose of Guangzhou's practice is to "curb bubbles and control risks". While doing a good job in risk prevention, we must curb speculative investment in real estate speculation.