20 17 65438+ 10/0, the annual data of the banking industry appeared. According to preliminary statistics, by the end of February 2006, the NPL ratio of commercial banks was 1.8 1%, which was the "peak" of NPL ratio since the second quarter of 2009.

According to the reporter of International Finance News, some commercial banks are always working overtime.

20 17 what happened to the bank's non-performing loan ratio?

There are different views on this issue in the industry, and the most optimistic forecast is the non-performing loan ratio of banks in 20 17 years.

How to solve this problem?

At present, banks are mainly managed through collection and write-off, and tools such as asset securitization and debt-to-equity swap have been gradually used.

The person in charge of the Commercial Bank Research Center of a commercial bank research institute told the reporter of International Finance News that considering the provision coverage ratio of the banking industry 175.5%, on the whole, the bank's non-performing loans are controllable.

However, the head of the business of a large state-owned bank company told the reporter, "During the economic shift period, the pressure of non-performing loans in the banking industry will continue for several years.

The special assets department always works overtime.

"Colleagues in the special asset management department always work overtime," a staff member of the head office of a commercial bank told reporters in an interview with the reporter of International Finance News. "The pressure is really great this year. After all, there are many non-performing assets and the statements are not good-looking. Some banks will take the initiative to reduce the non-performing rate of assets and divest them by specialized asset management departments. "

This statement has also been recognized by another industry insider. "actively and effectively reducing the proportion of non-performing loans should be something that most commercial banks are doing, but it will not be a big deal."

A very realistic scene, the staff of the above-mentioned commercial bank head office revealed a detail to the reporter, "A bank loan 15%, we asked, why did you do this? After all, you can't make such a thing. Why? A: Be a big denominator. "

"At present, China's economic structure is in the process of transformation. Under the background of deleveraging and destocking, some industries and some enterprises will also have credit risk events, which will also bring adverse pressure to the banking industry. " Wen Bin said.

The CBRC did not announce the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks. According to official data, by the end of the third quarter of 20 16, the NPL ratio of commercial banks was 1.7%, and the balance was1493.9 billion yuan.

Take Agricultural Bank of China, which has the highest NPL ratio among domestic commercial banks, as an example. According to the data disclosed in the third quarterly report of 20 16, as of September 30, 20 16, the NPL ratio was 2.39% according to the five-level classification of loan quality. The county NPL ratio was 3.04%, up 0.02 percentage points from the end of last year.

According to the research report released by Bank of Communications, small and micro enterprises and overcapacity industries will still be the main factors of credit risk of commercial banks, and the risk of debt default of large enterprises and deep differentiation of real estate market is developing.

Cui Yong, general manager of ICBC's financial business department, revealed that the financing balance of small and micro enterprises in ICBC's entire financing sector now reached 2,036.7 billion, up 8.2% year-on-year, and the increased balance reached 654.38+050 billion. "From this data, within ICBC, small and micro enterprises have accounted for nearly one-third of the financing of our entire company."

A person from the credit department of CCB told the reporter, "Our non-performing loans are mainly concentrated in small and micro enterprises, and there are few large and medium-sized customers."

However, there are also some big customers that give banks a headache.

Take Tianjin Binhai New Area as an example. 20 16: In the third quarter, there were large non-performing loans of over 30 million yuan 10, amounting to 948 million yuan. Among them, a loan of 270 million yuan from Zhongtai Construction Group Co., Ltd. in Dagang Sub-branch of Ping An Bank has been unable to repay the bank loan because of its large amount of creditor's rights in foreign construction projects and tight capital chain.

20 17 non-performing rate peaked?

In 20 17, the national conference on banking supervision and management used six words of "strictness" to reflect the attention of regulators to risks, namely, "strictly control the risk of non-performing loans, liquidity risks, cross-cutting financial risks, loan risks from local government financing platforms, internet financial risks and illegal fund-raising risks."

According to the analysis of orient securities analyst Tang Zipei, according to the deployment of the 20 17 National Banking Supervision and Management Work Conference, we need to pay attention to several points. 1. The 20 17 mission highlights the structural reform of the supply side. Secondly, the risk of non-performing loans should be strictly controlled. "It is expected that the CBRC will strengthen the supervision of non-performing loans and speed up the disposal of non-performing loans, which will help enhance the authenticity of the bank's non-performing loan ratio."

Huang Jie, an analyst in the research department of CICC, said, "I am optimistic that the bad cycle of banks will reverse in 20 17 years, and even the absolute level of NPL ratio may peak. Even if the economy declines, as long as the decline is not accelerated, there will still be macro support for the decline in the bank's bad formation rate. "

Huang Jie believes that from bottom to top, the Yangtze River Delta is the leading indicator of this vicious circle, leading the country for about 2 years. The rate of bad formation in the Yangtze River Delta reached its peak in the first half of 20 13, while that in the whole country was in the first half of 20 15. The absolute level of NPL ratio in the Yangtze River Delta peaked in the second half of 20 15, and the national NPL ratio may peak in the second half of 20 17, based on the two-year time lag.

However, there are different views on the prediction of non-performing rate.

"In 20 17 years, to ensure substantial progress in' three to one, one reduction and one supplement', the risks of SMEs may be further exposed." The person in charge of the Commercial Bank Research Center of a commercial bank research institute predicts that the non-performing rate of bank loans may continue to increase in 20 17 years.

The person in charge of the business of a large state-owned bank company told reporters that "it is not easy for the banking industry to maintain such a poor level during the economic shift period." However, he admits that in this context, the pressure of non-performing loans in the banking industry will continue for several years.

Traditional disposal methods are saturated.

At present, banks mainly dispose of non-performing loans through collection and write-off.

From the financial point of view, profit, provision and capital should be considered in the write-off of accounts collection.

As a counter-cyclical control means, provision is under great pressure. Since the introduction of the "dynamic provision system" in 2009, commercial banks have actively increased their reserves during the period of economic prosperity and good profits. By the end of 20 12, the provision coverage ratio of commercial banks was 295.5438+0%, reaching an all-time high.

Affected by the decline of banks' profitability and the write-off of non-performing assets, the provision coverage ratio of commercial banks has continued to decline this year, reaching 175.5% at the end of June, and some banks even fell below the regulatory red line of 150%.

As the main way for banks to use external resources to dispose of non-performing assets, asset management companies played a key leading role in the last round of disposal of non-performing assets of state-owned banks. At present, China has initially formed a three-tier AMC system of "cities under the jurisdiction of China Province", including four state-owned asset management companies including Huarong, Cinda, Great Wall and Dongfang, 28 provincial asset management companies and four prefecture-level asset management companies.

However, Wen Bin believes that the ability of asset management companies to dispose of non-performing assets cannot meet the market demand. According to the regulatory requirements, the capital adequacy ratio of AMC shall not be lower than 12.5%, which means that the leverage ratio of AMC is about 8 times. According to this calculation, AMC still has about 1 trillion yuan of non-performing assets disposal space, and its disposal capacity is relatively limited.

Wei, general manager of the Credit and Investment Management Department of China Industrial and Commercial Bank, told the reporter, "At present, the board of directors of ICBC has passed the plan to set up an asset management company, and is maintaining close communication with the regulatory authorities to promote the examination and approval work in accordance with regulatory requirements."

2. What is the pressure of non-performing loans of banks? The defect rate peaked at 20 17.

20 17 65438+ 10/0, the annual data of the banking industry appeared. According to preliminary statistics, the NPL ratio of commercial banks is 1.8 1%, which is the "peak" of NPL ratio since the second quarter of 2009.

According to the reporter of International Finance News, some commercial banks are always working overtime.

20 17 what happened to the bank's non-performing loan ratio?

First, the most optimistic forecast is the non-performing loans of banks in 20 17 years.

How to solve this problem?

At present, banks have been gradually used mainly through tools such as collection, securities write-off and debt-to-equity swap.

The person in charge of the Commercial Bank Research Center of a commercial bank research institute told the reporter of International Finance News that considering the provision coverage ratio of the banking industry 175.5%, on the whole, the bank's non-performing loans are controllable.

However, the head of the business of a large state-owned bank company told the reporter, "During the economic shift period, the pressure of non-performing loans in the banking industry will continue for several years.

General manager of special assets department

"The colleagues and staff of the Special Assets Management Department are receiving international gold investors." The pressure is really great this year. After all, there are many non-performing assets and the reporting rate is not good. The special asset management department will divest them.

This statement also got another effective pressure drop ratio, which should be what most commercial banks are doing, but there is no big move. "

A very realistic scene, the staff of the above-mentioned commercial bank head office revealed a detail to the reporter. "A bank provides a loan of 15%. We asked, why can't we make money? Why? A:

"At present, China's economic structure is in the process of transformation. Under the background of deleveraging and destocking, some industries and some enterprises will also have credit winds, which will bring adverse pressure. " Wen Bin said.

Balance of non-performing loans of Industrial Bank. According to previous official data, by the end of the third quarter of 20 16, commercial banks had not paid back 493.9 billion yuan.

Take the Agricultural Bank of China, which has the highest NPL ratio among domestic commercial banks, as an example. According to the five-level classification of loan quality on September 30th, 20 162065438, the NPL ratio was 2.39%. The county NPL ratio was 3.04%, up 0.02 percentage points from the end of last year.

According to the research report released by Bank of Communications, small and micro enterprises and overcapacity industries will still be the main factors of credit risk of commercial banks, and the risk of debt default of large enterprises and deep differentiation of real estate market is developing.

Cui Yong, general manager of ICBC's financial business department, revealed that ICBC's financing balance reached 2,036.7 billion, up 8.2% year-on-year. Judging from this data, small and micro enterprises account for nearly one-third of me in the whole ICBC. "

A person from the credit department of CCB told the reporter, "Our non-performing loans are mainly concentrated in small and micro enterprises, and there are few large and medium-sized customers."

However, there are also some big customers that give banks a headache.

Take Tianjin Binhai New Area as an example. In the third quarter of 20 16, there were 10 large non-performing loans of more than 30 million households, which could not be repaid by a 948 million group limited company of Ping An Bank Dagang Sub-branch.

In 20 17, the national conference on banking supervision and management used six words of "strictness" to reflect the attention of regulators to risks, namely, "strictly control the risk of non-performing loans, liquidity risks, cross-cutting financial risks, loan risks from local government financing platforms, internet financial risks and illegal fund-raising risks."

According to the analysis of orient securities analyst Tang Zipei, according to the deployment of the 20 17 National Banking Supervision and Management Work Conference, we need to pay attention to several points. 1. The 20 17 mission highlights the structural reform of the supply side. Secondly, the risk of non-performing loans should be strictly controlled. "It is expected that the CBRC will strengthen the supervision of non-performing loans and speed up the disposal of non-performing loans, which will help enhance the authenticity of the bank's non-performing loan ratio."

Huang Jie, an analyst in the research department of CICC, said, "I am optimistic that the bad cycle of banks will reverse in 20 17 years, and even the absolute level of NPL ratio may peak. Even if the economy declines, as long as the decline is not accelerated, there will still be macro support for the decline in the bank's bad formation rate. "

Huang Jie believes that from bottom to top, the Yangtze River Delta is the leading indicator of this vicious circle, leading the country for about 2 years. The rate of bad formation in the Yangtze River Delta reached its peak in the first half of 20 13, while that in the whole country was in the first half of 20 15. The absolute level of NPL ratio in the Yangtze River Delta peaked in the second half of 20 15, and the national NPL ratio may peak in the second half of 20 17, based on the two-year time lag.

However, there are different views on the prediction of non-performing rate.

"In 20 17 years, to ensure substantial progress in' three to one, one reduction and one supplement', the risks of SMEs may be further exposed." The person in charge of the Commercial Bank Research Center of a commercial bank research institute predicts that the non-performing rate of bank loans may continue to increase in 20 17 years.

The person in charge of the business of a large state-owned bank company told reporters that "it is not easy for the banking industry to maintain such a poor level during the economic shift period." However, he admits that in this context, the pressure of non-performing loans in the banking industry will continue for several years.

Traditional disposal methods are saturated.

At present, banks mainly dispose of non-performing loans through collection and write-off.

From the financial point of view, profit, provision and capital should be considered in the write-off of accounts collection.

As a counter-cyclical control means, provision is under great pressure. Since the introduction of the "dynamic provision system" in 2009, commercial banks have actively increased their reserves during the period of economic prosperity and good profits. By the end of 20 12, the provision coverage ratio of commercial banks was 295.5438+0%, reaching an all-time high.

Affected by the decline of banks' profitability and the write-off of non-performing assets, the provision coverage ratio of commercial banks has continued to decline this year, reaching 175.5% at the end of June, and some banks even fell below the regulatory red line of 150%.

As the main way for banks to use external resources to dispose of non-performing assets, asset management companies played a key leading role in the last round of disposal of non-performing assets of state-owned banks. At present, China has initially formed a three-tier AMC system of "cities under the jurisdiction of China Province", including four state-owned asset management companies including Huarong, Cinda, Great Wall and Dongfang, 28 provincial asset management companies and four prefecture-level asset management companies.

However, Wen Bin believes that the ability of asset management companies to dispose of non-performing assets cannot meet the market demand. According to the regulatory requirements, the capital adequacy ratio of AMC shall not be lower than 12.5%, which means that the leverage ratio of AMC is about 8 times. According to this calculation, AMC still has about 1 trillion yuan of non-performing assets disposal space, and its disposal capacity is relatively limited.

Wei, general manager of the Credit and Investment Management Department of China Industrial and Commercial Bank, told the reporter, "At present, the board of directors of ICBC has passed the plan to set up an asset management company, and is maintaining close communication with the regulatory authorities to promote the examination and approval work in accordance with regulatory requirements."

3. What is the pressure of non-performing loans of banks? The defect rate peaked at 20 17.

20 17 65438+ 10/0, the annual data of the banking industry appeared. According to preliminary statistics, by the end of February 2006, the NPL ratio of commercial banks was 1.8 1%, which was the "peak" of NPL ratio since the second quarter of 2009.

According to the reporter of International Finance News, some commercial banks are always working overtime.

20 17 what happened to the bank's non-performing loan ratio?

There are different views on this issue in the industry, and the most optimistic forecast is the non-performing loan ratio of banks in 20 17 years.

How to solve this problem?

At present, banks are mainly managed through collection and write-off, and tools such as asset securitization and debt-to-equity swap have been gradually used.

The person in charge of the Commercial Bank Research Center of a commercial bank research institute told the reporter of International Finance News that considering the provision coverage ratio of the banking industry 175.5%, on the whole, the bank's non-performing loans are controllable.

However, the head of the business of a large state-owned bank company told the reporter, "During the economic shift period, the pressure of non-performing loans in the banking industry will continue for several years.

The special assets department always works overtime.

"Colleagues in the special asset management department always work overtime," a staff member of the head office of a commercial bank told reporters in an interview with the reporter of International Finance News. "The pressure is really great this year. After all, there are many non-performing assets and the statements are not good-looking. Some banks will take the initiative to reduce the non-performing rate of assets and divest them by specialized asset management departments. "

This statement has also been recognized by another industry insider. "actively and effectively reducing the proportion of non-performing loans should be something that most commercial banks are doing, but it will not be a big deal."

A very realistic scene, the staff of the above-mentioned commercial bank head office revealed a detail to the reporter, "A bank loan 15%, we asked, why did you do this? After all, you can't make such a thing. Why? A: Be a big denominator. "

"At present, China's economic structure is in the process of transformation. Under the background of deleveraging and destocking, some industries and some enterprises will also have credit risk events, which will also bring adverse pressure to the banking industry. " Wen Bin said.

The CBRC did not announce the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks. According to official data, by the end of the third quarter of 20 16, the NPL ratio of commercial banks was 1.7%, and the balance was1493.9 billion yuan.

Take Agricultural Bank of China, which has the highest NPL ratio among domestic commercial banks, as an example. According to the data disclosed in the third quarterly report of 20 16, as of September 30, 20 16, the NPL ratio was 2.39% according to the five-level classification of loan quality. The county NPL ratio was 3.04%, up 0.02 percentage points from the end of last year.

According to the research report released by Bank of Communications, small and micro enterprises and overcapacity industries will still be the main factors of credit risk of commercial banks, and the risk of debt default of large enterprises and deep differentiation of real estate market is developing.

Cui Yong, general manager of ICBC's financial business department, revealed that the financing balance of small and micro enterprises in ICBC's entire financing sector now reached 2,036.7 billion, up 8.2% year-on-year, and the increased balance reached 654.38+050 billion. "From this data, within ICBC, small and micro enterprises have accounted for nearly one-third of the financing of our entire company."

A person from the credit department of CCB told the reporter, "Our non-performing loans are mainly concentrated in small and micro enterprises, and there are few large and medium-sized customers."

However, there are also some big customers that give banks a headache.

Take Tianjin Binhai New Area as an example. 20 16: In the third quarter, there were large non-performing loans of over 30 million yuan 10, amounting to 948 million yuan. Among them, a loan of 270 million yuan from Zhongtai Construction Group Co., Ltd. in Dagang Sub-branch of Ping An Bank has been unable to repay the bank loan because of its large amount of creditor's rights in foreign construction projects and tight capital chain.

20 17 non-performing rate peaked?

In 20 17, the national conference on banking supervision and management used six words of "strictness" to reflect the attention of regulators to risks, namely, "strictly control the risk of non-performing loans, liquidity risks, cross-cutting financial risks, loan risks from local government financing platforms, internet financial risks and illegal fund-raising risks."

According to the analysis of orient securities analyst Tang Zipei, according to the deployment of the 20 17 National Banking Supervision and Management Work Conference, we need to pay attention to several points. 1. The 20 17 mission highlights the structural reform of the supply side. Secondly, the risk of non-performing loans should be strictly controlled. "It is expected that the CBRC will strengthen the supervision of non-performing loans and speed up the disposal of non-performing loans, which will help enhance the authenticity of the bank's non-performing loan ratio."

Huang Jie, an analyst in the research department of CICC, said, "I am optimistic that the bad cycle of banks will reverse in 20 17 years, and even the absolute level of NPL ratio may peak. Even if the economy declines, as long as the decline is not accelerated, there will still be macro support for the decline in the bank's bad formation rate. "

Huang Jie believes that from bottom to top, the Yangtze River Delta is the leading indicator of this vicious circle, leading the country for about 2 years. The rate of bad formation in the Yangtze River Delta reached its peak in the first half of 20 13, while that in the whole country was in the first half of 20 15. The absolute level of NPL ratio in the Yangtze River Delta peaked in the second half of 20 15, and the national NPL ratio may peak in the second half of 20 17, based on the two-year time lag.

However, there are different views on the prediction of non-performing rate.

"In 20 17 years, to ensure substantial progress in' three to one, one reduction and one supplement', the risks of SMEs may be further exposed." The person in charge of the Commercial Bank Research Center of a commercial bank research institute predicts that the non-performing rate of bank loans may continue to increase in 20 17 years.

The person in charge of the business of a large state-owned bank company told reporters that "it is not easy for the banking industry to maintain such a poor level during the economic shift period." However, he admits that in this context, the pressure of non-performing loans in the banking industry will continue for several years.

Traditional disposal methods are saturated.

At present, banks mainly dispose of non-performing loans through collection and write-off.

From the financial point of view, profit, provision and capital should be considered in the write-off of accounts collection.

As a counter-cyclical control means, provision is under great pressure. Since the introduction of the "dynamic provision system" in 2009, commercial banks have actively increased their reserves during the period of economic prosperity and good profits. By the end of 20 12, the provision coverage ratio of commercial banks was 295.5438+0%, reaching an all-time high.

Affected by the decline of banks' profitability and the write-off of non-performing assets, the provision coverage ratio of commercial banks has continued to decline this year, reaching 175.5% at the end of June, and some banks even fell below the regulatory red line of 150%.

As the main way for banks to use external resources to dispose of non-performing assets, asset management companies played a key leading role in the last round of disposal of non-performing assets of state-owned banks. At present, China has initially formed a three-tier AMC system of "cities under the jurisdiction of China Province", including four state-owned asset management companies including Huarong, Cinda, Great Wall and Dongfang, 28 provincial asset management companies and four prefecture-level asset management companies.

However, Wen Bin believes that the ability of asset management companies to dispose of non-performing assets cannot meet the market demand. According to the regulatory requirements, the capital adequacy ratio of AMC shall not be lower than 12.5%, which means that the leverage ratio of AMC is about 8 times. According to this calculation, AMC still has about 1 trillion yuan of non-performing assets disposal space, and its disposal capacity is relatively limited.

Wei, general manager of the Credit and Investment Management Department of China Industrial and Commercial Bank, told the reporter, "At present, the board of directors of ICBC has passed the plan to set up an asset management company, and is maintaining close communication with the regulatory authorities to promote the examination and approval work in accordance with regulatory requirements."