2. Specific impact:
(1) The decrease in US consumption affects China's exports: the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the acquisition of Merrill Lynch are in the same strain as the subprime mortgage crisis that began last year. In the eyes of many experts, this incident is just a wave in the whole crisis process and should not be treated in isolation. Its impact on China's economy is actually a continuation of the impact of the subprime mortgage crisis on China's macro-economy. We can understand the impact of this crisis on China from two aspects: export and import. Export: It can be predicted that the external environment of China's macro-economy will be more severe due to the financial turmoil sweeping Wall Street. According to the import and export data of the General Administration of Customs, the growth rate of China's foreign trade export slowed down obviously in the first eight months of 2008. As the United States is the largest export market for China's goods, the growth rate of China's foreign trade exports, which surged once in June and July, will be tested again. The decline in external demand means that the demand of foreign consumers for high value-added products and low value-added products will also decline. In this environment, exporters may not have the motivation to innovate technology, but are forced to maintain market share by lowering product prices, which may lead to further deterioration of the terms of trade of China's export enterprises. Import: Under the impact of the financial crisis, the American economy may still decline in the second half of the year, which will lead to the continued decline of its national consumption power and desire, while investment expenditure will increase. "This is not good news for China's foreign trade exports." If the consumer demand of American citizens decreases and the manufacturing industry gradually recovers due to the increase in investment, the goods imported from China will inevitably decrease.
(2) Increase the cost of domestic imports: In terms of imports, the impact of the financial turmoil is closely related to the exchange rate of the US dollar. At present, almost all commodities in the international market are priced in dollars, and the strength of the dollar determines the price trend of commodities. From the observable data, the prices of crude oil, iron ore and other commodities have shown a downward trend due to the recent reversal of the US dollar, which is good news for China, which needs a large number of resource products. However, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the unexpected acquisition of Merrill Lynch, the "Fannie and Freddie" announced by the US government a week ago, and the repeated turmoil in the US financial market have seriously affected the trend of the US dollar exchange rate and the confidence of holders. Although the economic situation in the United States in the second quarter performed better than expected and showed sufficient resilience, it was due to the strong export brought by the weak dollar. Therefore, in the case of the financial turmoil and weak domestic demand, the US government will continue to promote exports under the "weak dollar" and reserve space for the Fed to further cut interest rates. Although the US economy is strong in the medium and long term and the exchange rate of the US dollar is high, the policy of weakening the US dollar in the short term seems to have been recognized by the market. In this way, the prices of crude oil, iron ore and other resource products will be pushed up again, and the cost of importing commodities denominated in US dollars in China will also increase greatly.
(3) Combating the confidence of the domestic financial market: Guo Tianyong, director of the China Banking Research Center of the Central University of Finance and Economics: The bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers is a continuation of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, which has brought considerable losses and impacts to financial institutions. The five major investment banks on Wall Street have strong investment and research teams, with assets exceeding hundreds of billions of dollars and extremely rich information resources. Such large investment banks have also closed down, indicating the seriousness of this crisis. "Different financial institutions have suffered different degrees of losses, the only difference is the amount of losses, such as Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which were taken over by the US government, and Bear Stearns, which was acquired by JPMorgan Chase in March. However, it is better to consider the impact on financial market confidence than to estimate the direct losses of investors. As far as China is concerned, the impact is twofold. The first level is market confidence. The bankruptcy of institutions with big problems in the United States has cast a shadow on investors' psychology in China. What is certain is that the second day after the news of Lehman Brothers bankruptcy came, it coincided with the opening of the A-share market during the three-day Mid-Autumn Festival holiday, and the banking sector in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets plummeted across the board. Its performance can only be described as "terrible", in which ICBC fell by 9.95%, China Construction Bank by 9.94% and China Bank by 9. 17%. Under the vertical blow of all kinds of bad news, the trading volume of bank stocks in Shanghai and Shenzhen fell by more than 9.0% throughout the day, with as many as 8 bank stocks falling. China Merchants Bank holds $70 million of bond exposure issued by Lehman Brothers, including $60 million of senior bonds and $65.438+million of subordinated bonds. In addition, the company did not make provision for impairment of the above bonds.
(4) Direct losses to domestic financial institutions: The direct impact of Lehman Brothers bankruptcy on domestic financial institutions includes two aspects: on the one hand, China's financial institutions and investors hold more subordinated bonds, resulting in actual losses; On the other hand, the financial crisis leads to the recession in the United States, which will be transmitted to China. Worried about China's banking industry, China's banking industry holds a large number of stocks and funds of American financial institutions. According to the bankruptcy documents, the top 30 unsecured creditors of Lehman Brothers are mainly Asian financial institutions, including Japanese Blue Bank, Central Mitsui Trust, Sumitomo Mitsui Finance, Mizuho Industrial Bank, Trust Central Treasury, and Bank of China, a domestic financial institution involved again. It is reported that Lehman owed $462 million to Japanese Blue Sky Bank, $382 million to Mizuho Industrial Bank, and $275 million to Citigroup's Hong Kong subsidiary, while Bank of China new york Branch also took the lead in lending $50 million to Lehman.
3. The lessons are profound and should be taken as a warning: China can learn the following lessons from the current crisis in the United States:
(1). Loose monetary policy is likely to trigger asset price bubbles and bring potential risks to future financial system crises.
(2) Facing the "deep water area" of the international market, China's "going out" policy should be more cautious, and foreign investment needs strict risk assessment and diversified investment strategies.