Decoupling and direct compensation. That is, subsidies are decoupled from the output and price of agricultural products (14.88, 0.50, 3.48%), and farmers are directly subsidized according to the predetermined crop area and output, which belongs to the "green box policy" of WTO Agricultural Agreement. Its advantages are simple operation, which can reduce the transfer cost of intermediate links of agricultural subsidies and improve subsidy efficiency; It is conducive to giving play to the role of the market, optimizing the planting structure and improving the competitiveness of agricultural products. Moreover, after the market pricing is realized, the domestic corn price will rationally return to a reasonable level, the domestic corn consumption will increase, the output will decrease correspondingly, the import volume will also drop sharply, and the stored corn will be gradually digested. However, decoupling and direct subsidy are beneficial to the production of crop varieties with good benefits, and the forced pulling effect on the yield of specific varieties is limited.
Target price system. Although the grain target price system is perfect in theory, many countries in the world are implementing it. However, after nearly two years of in-depth research and pilot, it is found that the environment for implementing the target price system in China is different from that in some developed countries in Europe and America. China has a vast territory, a large gap between the north and the south, many farmers, less arable land per capita, and a weak sense of honesty. It is difficult for each farmer to accurately determine the planting area and yield of each variety in the current year. In practice, there are many problems to be solved and the workload is very large. Therefore, this year's No.1 document did not mention the target price system of corn.
It can be seen that after the market pricing of corn is implemented, the possibility of adopting the target price system is shrinking, and the possibility of adopting decoupling direct subsidy is increasing.
As for the specific operation method, if decoupling direct subsidy is implemented, because China may first only decouple direct subsidy for one variety of corn, rice and wheat will continue the minimum purchase price policy, so it can only be based on the corn planting area and output in a certain period in history. If the target price system is to be implemented, it is likely to adopt the method of subsidy according to sales volume. The current "internet plus" technology has made it possible to accurately calculate the actual grain sales of producers and prevent fraud, but it is still a difficult problem to accurately verify the planting area and output of each farmer in that year.
However, northern China is the main corn producing area. Even if the price of corn drops to about 0.8/ kg, it is difficult to find which crop can replace corn in large quantities. The benefit of planting soybean is far less than that of corn, so it is difficult to plant silage corn and forage quickly, and it will also reduce the feed consumption of grain corn more; At present, the coarse cereals market is basically saturated, and there is no market for dozens of tons and hundreds of tons. However, after the price of 20 15 corn was lowered, the benefit of rice began to be better than that of corn, but limited by water resources, the area that could be increased was limited. It is estimated that in 20 16, due to the decrease of corn purchase price, the planting area of rice in Northeast China will increase by 3%, the planting area of soybeans and miscellaneous grains will increase by 3.5% (the base is very small), and the corn area will decrease by about 3%. Therefore, the supply of 20 16/ 17 japonica rice may be more prominent, and the annual inventory growth will be further improved. It is predicted that with the decrease of the price of 20 16 corn, the import of corn and its substitutes will be greatly reduced, and 20 17 may resume normal import. Quarantine can also control food imports.
At present, the high corn inventory is mainly caused by the high price. Gradually reducing the temporary storage price to the market pricing level can not only reduce corn supply, but also promote corn consumption, which is an effective way to destock. However, corn is the dominant crop in the northern production area of China, and the inventory backlog is too large, so it takes a long time to take this way to go to stock. According to the current situation, it will take at least 2~3 years to achieve zero growth of corn stocks through price reduction measures. It will take at least 4-5 years to restore the normal level of corn stocks. During this period, the quantity of stored corn is losing and the quality is declining, and the state finance needs to pay a lot of storage costs and interest. Therefore, corn destocking is a top priority, and effective measures should be taken to solve it as soon as possible. The sooner you solve it, the more active you are, and the smaller the loss will be.
For corn destocking, the author has also proposed "supplementing soybeans and pressing corn" to solve the problem within one or two years.
However, there is still no conclusion on which method to take to stock. If there are no effective measures to reduce the supply before the end of April, the seeds needed in 20 17 years have been sown, which will limit the sharp reduction of corn production in 20 17 years.
De-stocking corn is beneficial to the future development of grain production, non-policy enterprise management, processing enterprises and consumers. Only after the policy grain inventory is reduced, the business volume and income of some existing policy grain purchasing and storage enterprises will be obviously affected, and they need to turn to the market for survival and development. Therefore, state-owned grain enterprises must be prepared for danger in times of peace, and cannot expect to rely on the state's grain purchasing and storage policy for food forever. They should establish a sense of market and competition, continue to deepen the reform of state-owned grain enterprises, establish a modern enterprise system, change the operating mechanism of enterprises, strengthen enterprise management, seize the opportunity of good current income, do a good job in the construction and modernization of necessary storage facilities, accumulate their own liquidity, improve market competitiveness, and meet the challenges of future market operation.
After the corn is destocked, most of the existing granaries will be idle, and some new granaries in the northeast will have no food to store. 20 10 and 20 1 1 also had similar situations. At that time, many grain depots of "World Bank Loan Project" and "National Grain Depot Construction Group III" were all out of grain. There will be more empty warehouses this time, and it is expected that there will not be such a large-scale grain backlog in the future. By then, some dangerous old warehouses and simple sheds will be eliminated, and some grain depots will also go bankrupt or jump ship. Therefore, local grain departments and enterprises should also plan the utilization of idle warehouses in the future as soon as possible to give full play to the value of these warehouses. The article is selected from the internet, I hope it will help you.