Some good news came from the property market last month, and many people began to fantasize that a new round of housing price rebound was coming.
In the past 20 years, our economic development has mainly relied on external circulation. The so-called external circulation means that we produce goods and then export them abroad to earn dollars.
These dollars will be divided into two ways in China:
The first is to pool with the central bank to become foreign exchange reserves, then buy US Treasury bonds and return to the US financial market.
This also indirectly led to a great bubble in both the national debt and the stock market in the United States.
The second way is to become a newly issued RMB in the form of foreign exchange.
In the past 20 years, our money supply has been sufficient, and the property market, as the largest money reservoir, has benefited the most, which is also the main reason for the rise in housing prices.
It can be seen that the former external circulation not only suppressed the US securities market, but also suppressed the domestic property market.
However, due to the rapid development of China's economy, some countries can't sit still in recent years, and the previously stable external circulation has gradually become unstable.
In the era of external circulation, real estate has three very positive effects:
First, it has improved the living conditions of ordinary people and provided a large number of jobs; The second is to be a currency reservoir; Third, developers and local governments cooperate to build urban infrastructure.
However, with the rise of housing prices, the negative effects of high housing prices are becoming more and more prominent, even fatal.
High housing prices have four negative effects:
First and foremost, high housing prices depress the fertility rate. Needless to say, the current fertility data is ugly.
For our generation, if we want to find a good job, we must go to big cities, but the housing prices in big cities are very high. People enter the city, but because they can't afford a house, they can't take root. Most people are floating.
In addition, high housing prices lead to high rents. Although the income in big cities is high, there is not much money left after paying the rent.
Can't afford to buy a house, can't afford to save money, get married and have children, these things can only be postponed.
Second, high housing prices lead to unfair income distribution. According to the report of Nomura Securities, 70%-80% of the gap between the rich and the poor in China comes from real estate.
In reality, many people's wages for decades can't keep up with the one-year housing price increase. Whoever buys a house early, who meets with demolition, who boldly goes to real estate speculation, who will have more money. This way of wealth distribution is unhealthy and unreasonable.
Third, high housing prices have delayed technological innovation and domestic consumption.
Scientific and technological innovation and domestic consumption are like the second pulse of future economic development. These two things are very important. If they get through, it won't be a problem to cross the middle-income trap in the future. If not, it will be very troublesome.
Fourth, high housing prices are risks in themselves. After the asset bubble bursts, economic problems often occur.
Because there are bubbles in both China Housing and American stocks, many people like to compare China Housing and American stocks. After the epidemic, the US stock market bubble became bigger and bigger, and now it has almost become the heart disease of the Federal Reserve, and it will be a chicken feather in the future.
For the stability of the financial system, our property market can't go up and up like the American stock market.
When the external cycle becomes the internal and external double cycle, the sustained rise of housing prices will lose its foundation, and these negative effects brought by high housing prices will need to be solved. Times have really changed.
Among the recent regulatory policies, two are the most important:
First, three red lines of real estate enterprises; The second is the evaluation of the concentration of bank loans.
The three red lines make it impossible for banks to directly transfuse blood to real estate enterprises, and the loan concentration limits the scale of residential mortgage loans.
In the past, real estate enterprises were all holding bank development loans in one hand and the advance payment paid by ordinary people in the other, which was highly leveraged.
But now, not only the development loan can't be taken out, because the house is not easy to sell, and the pre-sale money can't be taken out, which directly leads to the tight liquidity of many housing enterprises.
As we all know, real estate and finance are closely linked, housing enterprises are uncomfortable, and banks will be uncomfortable.
In order to help brothers and speed up the renovation of new houses in housing enterprises, bank mortgage loans will naturally be biased towards new houses.
Therefore, the second-hand housing has the problem of restricting loans and stopping loans, and the liquidity is gradually locked.
For families with multiple suites, there are two things that are most depressing:
First, second-hand houses are not easy to sell; Second, the house not only can't be sold, but also has to pay taxes.
At the moment when the mobility of second-hand houses is getting worse and worse, the property tax has actually started to be piloted, which will greatly increase the holding cost of houses.
If someone still wants to hold a house, wait for the future liquidity to be loose, and then sell the property, then the cost of waiting will be higher and higher because of the introduction of property tax.
The future property tax is likely to set up a tax-free area, and then set up a progressive tax system according to the number and total area of real estate held by each family. In other words, whoever has more houses will bear a higher tax rate.
If the property tax is really set in this way, then obviously, in order to reduce the tax rate and pay less taxes, families with multiple suites will accelerate the sale of real estate. Even if you deposit the money from selling a house in the bank, it is better than paying a progressive high tax rate.
Even smarter families will sell their scattered properties and replace them with more expensive houses in the core area.
The house in the core area has two advantages: first, it is tough because it is scarce; Second, because of the strong demand for renting houses, it will be easier to raise rents.
If the property tax is levied, the price of good houses in the core areas of first-and second-tier cities may rise, while the price of houses in remote areas, or old and dilapidated houses, will fall because of centralized selling by all parties.
The decrease in liquidity, the pilot property tax and the increase in mortgage interest rate add up to make houses, especially those that are not very good, less and less attractive.
According to the data of Central Bank 19, urban households with two houses accounted for 3 1.0%, and those with more than two houses accounted for 10.5%.
If the house can't be sold, its book value is just book wealth.
At present, the property tax has not yet landed, and the liquidity is slightly loose. It may be a good choice to dispose of redundant houses as soon as possible.
Many families keep their old houses because they are waiting for demolition. Once the demolition comes, the old house will become a new house, and its value will double.
20 15 in order to hedge the downward pressure on the economy and digest the real estate inventory in some cities, a wave of shantytown renovation has been promoted in China.
According to the data of Ping An Securities, from 20 16 to 2020, the residential sales driven by shed reform will account for 10% of the national residential sales.
A large number of relocated households used the demolition funds to buy houses in the market, and the inventory of the property market was digested, and the house price also rose.
However, since 20 19, the total amount of shed reform has been greatly reduced. In 20 18, there will be 6.26 million sheds, which will be reduced to 2.09 million by 2020.
Even in the government work report in 2020, the expression of shed reform disappeared and was replaced by the old reform. There is a big difference between the renovation of old houses and the renovation of sheds. The former is more like the renovation of old buildings, while the latter is the demolition and construction.
Under the background of no speculation in the house, it is a bit out of place to promote the shed reform of house prices.
Generally speaking, there will be fewer and fewer opportunities to make a fortune by tearing down old houses in the future.
Many people may say that it doesn't matter if you don't open it. Old houses occupy the core area of the city, and the surrounding schools and shopping malls are the best. Even if the house is old, the land will continue to increase in value.
There is some truth in this statement, but the premise must be that the core area of a city is fixed.
The center of Beijing has always been the Forbidden City, so the old houses in the Second Ring Road are always more expensive than the new houses outside the Fifth Ring Road.
However, most cities in China, especially second-tier and below cities, including Jinan, Zhengzhou, Hefei and Qingdao, have their downtown areas, that is, the core areas, which are constantly moving.
Although there are many landmark buildings, immovable natural landscapes and historical sites in the old cities of these cities, the places with the highest housing prices are generally new urban areas.
All kinds of high-rise buildings and modern new districts or CBD, whether in terms of building standards or living comfort.
Much higher than the old city.
The rich outside, the rich in the old city, are slowly moving to the new city. Local tyrants live in suburban villas, and the middle class moves to Dapinglou in the new town.
Accordingly, high-quality educational resources, medical resources, commercial resources and so on will follow the pace of the rich and slowly move to the new city.
The supporting facilities of the new town are getting better and better, and the house prices are getting more and more expensive. The core area of the whole city moved from the old city to the new city.
Everyone who has lived in an old house knows that when the house is old, there will be many problems such as wall peeling, wall seepage, aging facilities, pipeline blockage and even poor property.
The price of the old house is supported by the land. If the city center moves away, how many people will take over the old house?
In the future, the differentiation of real estate market will become more and more serious, such as the differentiation of housing prices in first-and second-tier cities and small counties in third-and fourth-tier cities, the differentiation of housing prices between new houses and old houses, and the differentiation of housing prices between core lots and non-core lots.
On the whole, the place where house prices are firm or even rising must be the place where population flows, industries prosper and high-income groups gather.
If your old house is not in the heart of a big city, the sooner you sell it, the better.