The central bank released some financial statistics in the first three quarters of 2022, as well as data on the scale of social financing. It can be found that the amount of RMB loans suddenly increased in September, and the scale of social financing will also exceed the original market expectations, increasing by 2.47 trillion yuan and 3.53 trillion yuan respectively. In September, both credit and agriculture-related growth exceeded expectations, which also released some signals. Many institutions have issued some interpretations before, which is also an improvement to the continuation of the industrial credit structure.
In September, Huaxi Securities also had an unexpected situation in credit financing. It is believed that the loan structure of corporate trust will continue to improve, and the investment structure will be optimized, which better reflects the demand for corporate financing, and the operating momentum will be marginally improved. There will be some growth policies in the next four quarters, thus accelerating the landing. Obviously, the process of the third batch of special projects will soon remain stable. In June 5438+ 10, the growth rate of financial stocks may also become the high point of the year, because the financial data in September has exceeded expectations, mainly because the policy continues to exert strength. Under the guidance of such a big environment, the degree of credit supply has recovered.
In the future development, both monetary policy and fiscal policy can stabilize credit, and will strengthen their joint efforts in these areas. In particular, the balance restriction will also promote the color melting inventory of 10, and the growth rate may also become the high point of the year. CICC's research report believes that some information will exceed market expectations if it exceeds the same period, so that other factors can be brought into play, developers can have confidence, and there is an epidemic situation, so that infrastructure loans can continue to bottom out.