Let’s talk about this issue from several aspects:
1. Why banks may fail
2. What kind of banks may fail
First of all, we know that the main business of a bank is to absorb savings and issue loans. Loan customers mainly include businesses and individuals.
Another part of the business is investment, such as buying bonds, mainly bonds with high credit ratings.
We will not discuss other businesses.
You can find that banks’ profits mainly come from enterprises and individuals, and of course include some government businesses.
Suppose that the economic situation is not good and bank customers are unable to pay interest and principal on time, especially if some smaller bank customers are concentrated and these customers are unable to repay principal and interest at the same time. If the bank's funds cannot cover the resulting bad debts, it has the prerequisite for bankruptcy.
Second, it can be said that for a single bank, the possibility of a run crisis still exists, but it is not the root cause, but mainly financial reasons.
Here, I recommend that you watch the following movie:
The movie "Too Big to Fail" tells the story of the Secretary of the Treasury's policy after the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008. Wilson, Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke, stock god Buffett and Wall Street bosses battled wits and tried every means to save the financial industry.
If you have time, you can take a look and have a perceptual contact.
Finally, as for the bankruptcy you mentioned, this situation still shows that it should be a small bank and will not lead to a systemic crisis, so the government will not provide a full bailout.
The above, I hope it can help you!
1. If one day banks fail one after another, it means that there is a huge risk in the financial system, or even collapse.
2. The probability of this happening is very low, at least in the next 20 years. One reason is that our financial industry has not yet been fully opened and there is still a lot of room for development; the other is that our country's regulatory system is relatively conservative and there is no large-scale derivatives market.
3. The central bank’s stress test on the banking industry will also always remind banks of risk control.
Even if the electronic currency becomes more and more perfect, banks will not be able to close down one after another on the same day. Instead, they will gradually merge into large banks and small ones, and slowly shrink their business outlets. After all, all people will be able to do things online. It’s still too early to pace.
This would be terrible if it were not a problem swept by the wave of electronic currency.
This means a severe economic depression coupled with inappropriate business model reforms.
Many people will lose their jobs, many self-employed individuals and small businesses will be unable to continue their business, and people's livelihood and economic development will suffer heavy losses.
Don’t let banks fail one after another in one day.
You can rest assured that Yang Ma will not sit idly by and watch! If financial institutions fail without restraint, what impact will it have on people's lives? What an impact it has on social stability! It is true that some banks have experienced negative growth in assets and cannot make ends meet! The "Banking Law" must have relevant protection for depositors' funds! At least everyone must have confidence in our country and leaders!
From the formal implementation of the deposit insurance system in May 2015, to the recent acceleration of the introduction of bank bankruptcy regulations by the China Banking Regulatory Commission, this means that the myth of bank failure is about to become a thing of the past. So far, two domestic banks have gone bankrupt, so you must not think that your money is safe if it is kept in a bank.
From May 1, 2015, the "Deposit Insurance Regulations" officially came into effect. The Regulations clearly stipulate that banks can also go bankrupt.
As early as 1998 during the Asian financial crisis, Hainan Development Bank had a run on the bank due to a large proportion of non-performing assets, insufficient capital, and poor credibility. After exhausting its reserves and the country’s 3.4 billion bailout Jin still failed to get over the difficulties and eventually declared bankruptcy. Another one, Shangcun Rural Credit Cooperative in Suning County, Hebei Province, officially entered the bankruptcy judicial process and became the first rural credit cooperative in the country to be approved for bankruptcy.
In other words, banks may also fail. But now that our country is strong, I don’t think the possibility of bank failure is high, but it’s hard to say for local banks.
Answer, the problem you mentioned is basically impossible in China. Because our country’s commercial banks are under the unified management of the central bank. Every time a bank deposit is received, a reserve must be paid to the central bank, which minimizes risks for commercial banks. Any commercial bank that is short of money can borrow money from the central bank. Our country has its own right to print and issue currency. So the situation you mentioned has basically no chance of happening in China. The European monetary system is different. The European Union has a unified monetary management system, which is the central bank of all European countries. Europe will decide based on the situation of each country. If that country is heavily in debt, it will no longer provide loans to that country, or the cost of loans to that country will increase significantly. In this way, his debt will continue to increase. These countries also do not have the right to print and issue their own currency. So there was a case of bankruptcy in the Greek financial industry. Thank you
I can understand that the question you raised is unrealistic and is basically impossible in our country, but since it is said if, then I will also daydream about the following possibilities:
1. It is a political factor: in the unlikely event that the state power is overturned, the security of the funds of the four major banks, which are supported by the state’s finances, cannot be guaranteed and may change hands.
The second is military factors: if there is a war in the country, or even a local war, whether it is a private bank or a state-owned bank, the social and economic depression will inevitably come, and the lives and even lives of its people will become difficult, and the source of funds will be blocked. Loans have to be paid, and banks are tightening their finances.
The third is market factors: Our country’s economy is dominated by public ownership, with the market economy as an important supplement. However, it is ultimately dominated by the state-owned economy, and social responsibilities are vigorously shouldered by the government. However, judging from the current economic development, reform and opening up are As an important policy for national development, opening up can only become stronger and stronger. Competition among banks has intensified, and some banks have collapsed.
The impact of bank failure on us: your deposits may be affected, the withdrawal and application of funds may be delayed, and you may even have to go to court to get them back. In order to shrink the finances, deposits Interest rates will decrease and loan rates will increase.
Personal suggestion: From the perspective of national destiny and social governance, we should not worry unreasonably and worry that banks will collapse. We should worry more about how we can use bank money to improve our social status and financial freedom.
The crisis our country is currently facing, which I call the M2 withdrawal rights crisis, is essentially developed from the debt crisis, because in our country’s economic field, financial field, and the central bank’s currency issuance system , all have huge flaws and loopholes, combined with historical accidental factors - for the first time in human history, a new financial thing such as non-physical currency (electronic currency) appeared, and under the catalysis of electronic currency and its payment system It has developed rapidly and with huge devastation to the debt crisis, financial crisis and economic crisis we are facing today.
The China Debt Crisis is almost impossible to avoid due to the operating rules of finance and currency.
The outbreak of the China Debt Crisis will be marked by the bankruptcy of our country's banks.
In my country's entire commercial banking system, there are nearly 200 trillion yuan in various deposits, but the reserves in the entire banking system are only about 23 trillion yuan, excluding the 10 trillion yuan provided by the central bank to commercial banks. Trillion yuan of re-lending, then the reserve scale of the entire commercial bank system will only be 13 trillion yuan.
Under the banking system of the fractional reserve system, the two major types of assets that back various bank deposits are reserves and commercial banks’ claims on social enterprises, institutions, and individuals. Once the China Debt Crisis breaks out, various debt assets within the commercial banks will suffer huge losses. Therefore, the only assets that can truly be responsible for backing the huge deposits of depositors are only 13 trillion yuan.
Under such circumstances, there is no doubt that banks will inevitably go bankrupt on a large scale, because the scale of social debt is too huge and the scale of bank deposits is too huge. Even large state-owned banks may not be able to handle the situation when risks come. survived.
Let’s first deduce how we should respond to a very extreme situation in which even large state-owned banks are not immune.
First of all, at the national strategic level, two companies must be established. 1. Central payment and clearing bank. 2. Asset management companies.
The first central payment and clearing bank can be understood directly as the central bank, or as a national-level payment and clearing bank under the central bank. Used to accept funds transferred from various depositors of bankrupt banks. In any case, once the bank goes bankrupt, the safety of depositors' funds under the deposit limit of 500,000 will be guaranteed first, and all funds will be transferred to the newly established Central Payment and Clearing Bank. The central payment and clearing bank has the following characteristics:
1. It implements a 100% reserve system. Therefore, this bank only operates deposit business and only has current deposits. There is no concept of time deposits. 0 interest rate or negative interest rate. No external loan business is provided.
2. This bank provides transaction payment business for the entire economy. This transaction payment business is also a clearing business, which is the basis for ensuring the normal development of various economic activities in society.
3. Any exchange relies on the base currency issued by the central bank. There is a small amount of cash business, but a large number of businesses are electronic currency transaction payment services based on electronic currency and its transaction payment system. That is, the concept we often see recently is ECDP, that is, electronic currency digital payment, rather than DCEP digital currency electronic payment.
Secondly, establish asset management
Although the state allows bank bankruptcy, the possibility of bank bankruptcy is still very small. You don’t need to be too nervous, but you still need to pay attention: 1. Don’t Put your eggs in one basket and diversify your investment to spread your risks. Don’t put all your money in one bank. The deposit in one bank should not exceed 500,000. 2. Try not to choose long-term fixed deposits. You can choose short-term deposits or demand deposits. If you feel that the interest is low, there are many financial management platforms now, and you can choose some high-quality and reliable platforms to invest. 3. When purchasing bank financial products, you must pay special attention. When banks sell financial products or insurance to you, be careful.
In short, it is still recommended that everyone learn more financial management knowledge to improve their financial management skills, learn to take care of their own assets, prevent depreciation and obtain the best returns as possible.
To sum up, allowing banks to fail only means that the state will no longer provide support for banks. The risks incurred by depositors due to bank failure will be borne by insurance companies, and the insurance limit is only 500,000 yuan, so everyone is carrying out When managing money, choose as many ways as possible to manage money. Regarding this change, ordinary people should learn more financial management knowledge.
Banks in socialist countries are not allowed to go bankrupt, only reorganization and mergers are allowed. However, if one day banks really fail one after another, then the economy will be severely depressed and has reached a very serious point. At this time, it may be When inflation occurs, money can no longer reflect its value and use. At this time, the entire society will be in chaos. Many factories and companies will close down one after another, and more people will be unemployed. But one day when society develops and electronic currency is available, maybe banks It will really disappear one day, but no one wants banks to collapse one after another one day. That would be terrible