1. 1 default risk
The risk of default includes compulsory default and rational default. Compulsory breach of contract refers to the passive behavior of the borrower, and the theory of ability to pay holds that compulsory breach of contract is caused by insufficient ability to pay. This shows that the borrower has the willingness to repay, but has no ability to repay. Rational breach of contract refers to the borrower's active breach of contract. According to the equity theory, in a perfect capital market, the borrower can only make a decision on whether to breach the contract by comparing the unique rights and interests in his house with the scale of mortgage debt. When the real estate market price rises, the borrower can transfer the house to pay off the loan, recover the cost and earn a certain profit; When the real estate market price drops, in order to pass on the loss, even if he has the ability to repay, the borrower voluntarily defaults and refuses to repay.
1.2 liquidity risk
Liquidity risk refers to the risk that short-term deposits and long-term loans are difficult to realize, and liquidity is an important principle for banks to ensure asset quality. Today, liquidity risk is reflected in two aspects. First of all, at present, housing loans in China mainly come from provident fund and savings deposits. Savings deposits absorbed by banks belong to short-term deposits, generally only three to five years, while housing mortgage loans belong to long-term loans. This short-term deposit and long-term loan behavior makes the liquidity of banks very low, which in turn brings liquidity risks. Second, the assets and creditor's rights held by banks are not easy to be realized, which is easy to cause liquidity risk. Therefore, banks may lose more favorable investment opportunities in the financial market and increase the losses caused by opportunity costs.
1.3 business cycle risk
Economic cycle risk refers to the risk brought by the periodic fluctuation of the overall level of the national economy. Compared with other industries, the real estate industry is more sensitive to the business cycle. With the economic expansion, the income level of residents has improved, and the market demand for real estate has increased, so it is not a problem to realize the house. Banks and individuals are full of optimistic expectations for the future, and the number of housing mortgage loans issued by banks has also increased dramatically. When the economy is depressed, the unemployment rate rises, the income of residents drops sharply, and a large number of loans cannot be repaid. Even if the house has been mortgaged to the bank, it cannot be realized due to the weakness of the real estate industry. At this time, the risk of mortgage loan is transformed into bad creditor's rights and losses of banks, and banks are faced with a large number of "bad debts", which can easily lead to credit crisis and even bankruptcy of banks.
1.4 interest rate risk
Interest rate risk refers to the risk brought by the change of interest rate level determined by the capital structure of short-term deposits and long-term loans to the value of bank assets. Fluctuations in interest rates, whether rising or falling, will bring losses to banks. If the interest rate rises, the interest rate of housing mortgage will also increase, which may increase the repayment pressure of borrowers. The higher the loan amount and the longer the loan term, the greater the impact, thus increasing the risk of default. If the interest rate falls, the borrower may borrow from the current capital market or borrow again at a low interest rate to repay the loan in advance, which will bring risks to the bank. The main performance is that the occurrence of early lending makes the cash flow of housing loans uncertain, which brings certain difficulties to the intensive assets and liabilities of banks.
Risk prevention of housing mortgage loan
In view of the above risks, this paper puts forward some preventive measures from the following angles to minimize the risks brought by mortgage loans while effectively serving the people.
2. 1 default risk control
In view of the possibility of default by buyers, we should start with the following two points: First, after receiving the loan application from buyers, banks need to conduct a detailed investigation on the basic situation of buyers (such as income, assets and liabilities, the proportion of monthly payment to family income, the purpose of buying houses, etc.). ), and according to the results of the investigation, decide whether to loan and draw up the terms of the contract. The second is to review the credit of buyers. The audit indicators mainly include: the total family income and savings certificate of the buyers: family population and per capita monthly income; The ratio of monthly payment to monthly income.
2.2 Liquidity risk control
Housing mortgage loans have a long term, and the main sources of funds for loans are bank deposits and housing provident fund, and bank deposits have been in a basically stable state. However, the existing housing provident fund system still needs to be improved. For example, the coverage is low. According to the data of the Ministry of Construction, the number of employees who actually paid provident fund in 2007 was only 765,438+0,879,654,38+0,000; There is a phenomenon that the provident fund should be built but not built. For example, some private enterprises have not yet established a housing provident fund system; The accumulated provident fund is less and its popularity is not wide. In view of these problems, we should start to improve the housing provident fund system, so that the housing provident fund can effectively meet the housing financing needs of consumers and reduce the liquidity risk.
2.3 Economic cycle risk control
The real estate industry is closely related to the economic cycle, and personal housing mortgage loans should be set up.
Loan risk early warning system to prevent market and policy risks. First, establish a risk early warning database, obtain data from all aspects, continuously accumulate and improve the collection and collation of data, and lay a solid foundation for model development; The second is to develop a suitable risk early warning model and set reasonable parameters for early warning interval, warning line, index weight and probability density function; The third is to establish a rapid response and pre-control mechanism to deal with and resolve the potential risks shown by the risk early warning system in time and minimize the risks brought by the economic cycle to housing mortgage loans. ?
2.4 Interest rate risk control
In view of the risks brought by interest rate changes, banks can take the following measures:
The first is to develop mortgage loans with adjustable interest rates, whose interest rates are regularly adjusted according to changes in market interest rates. Compared with the current floating interest rate in China, the difference is that this periodic interest rate adjustment will help to improve the matching degree between bank deposits and loans, and the risk of interest rate increase borne by banks can be passed on to borrowers, and the risk of interest rate decrease borne by borrowers can also be passed on to banks.
The second is to develop fixed-rate mortgage loan, which refers to the mortgage loan method with fixed loan interest rate within the repayment period stipulated in the mortgage loan contract. Under this model, banks bear most of the interest rate risks. If banks can obtain fixed-rate funds (such as issuing fixed-rate bonds) to match loans, they can avoid the corresponding interest rate mismatch and liquidity risk.
conclusion
Housing mortgage involves the interests of buyers, banks and developers. In order to minimize the risk, the preventive measures mentioned above are only part of them, and we should constantly improve them. In short, the three parties should correctly handle the relationship between business development and risk prevention, fully consider risk factors when designing loan products, strengthen risk control, improve the variety of individual housing mortgage loans, make them suitable for different housing demanders, ensure the safety of housing mortgage loans to the greatest extent, and promote the healthy development of housing mortgage loans.