First, traffic analysis?
1, basic elements
As we all know, the narrow sense of running water mainly refers to bank running water, including private running water and enterprise running water. There is little difference in the basic elements between the two, including account number, account name, transaction date, debit amount (expenditure), credit amount (income), transaction summary, transaction object and so on.
Step 2 Analyze the content
(1) authenticity of running water
Before analyzing the running water, we must first confirm whether the running water provided by customers is true or not, otherwise all the analysis is castles in the air, and its authenticity can be analyzed from the following aspects:
First, paper: many banks use special paper to print running water;
Second, whether important information such as name and account number is complete and accurate can be verified by telephone banking;
Third, whether the official seal of the bank is clear and normal, you can call the bank to ask if the customer has played there. This kind of situation is relatively rare, and customers recommended by general intermediaries are more prone to this kind of situation, which requires special attention.
(2) Transaction frequency
Check whether the number of transactions of customers in a certain period of running water conforms to the basic rules of commercial capital exchange. For example, the running water of a supermarket owner has more than 10 cash deposit and withdrawal every day, which is not in line with the law of commercial capital exchange. Ask the customer the reason and analyze the rationality of its explanation.
(3) Transaction amount
Check whether the transaction amount in the flow is abnormal, including two aspects. First, whether there are obvious anomalies related to the daily settlement or the large amount of business scale funds, such as the daily transaction amount is less than 6.5438+million, and there are 6.5438+million transactions, which need attention; Second, whether there is a regular trading volume of the same amount. In case of the above situation, you need to ask the specific transaction object and reason with the customer.
(4) Transaction object
Check each transaction object in the process, mainly including transaction objects related to daily operations and unrelated transaction objects. Business-related transactions are normal for upstream and downstream customers, thus verifying the authenticity of business information dictated by customers in the early stage; Transactions unrelated to daily operations include microfinance companies, investment companies, trust companies, finance companies, etc. At this time, it is necessary to ask the customer the specific reason for the transaction.
(5) Total transaction volume
The analysis of the total transaction volume includes three parts. First, it is easy to count all the in-and-out transactions of customers in a certain period, which roughly reflects the flow scale of customers; Secondly, through the screening of running water, we can count the transaction volume of incoming or outgoing accounts related to the customer's business operation in a certain period, which is cumbersome and objectively reflects the real transaction flow of customers; Thirdly, through the comparative analysis of the selected monthly transaction volume, we can intuitively reflect its capital withdrawal cycle and off-season.
(6) Average daily balance
The analysis of daily average balance includes two parts. Firstly, the daily average balance is deduced according to the total quarterly interest settlement in the running water and the current interest rate. The greater the value, the more sufficient the reserve funds. Secondly, according to the quarterly interest settlement and current interest rate in the running water, the daily average balance of each quarter is deduced, and its standard deviation is calculated to directly reflect its volatility. The smaller the value, the more stable its reserve funds are.
3. Main risk points
Through a series of analysis of bank flow, we can dig out some information and extract key issues, mainly in the following three aspects:
(1) hidden liabilities
Through the analysis of the transaction amount and transaction object, it may be found that the customer has some debts that are not reflected in the credit information, such as loans from consumer finance, small loan companies, P2P institutions or private institutions, so as to further understand the customer's integrity, real debt level and repayment pressure.
(2) the matching degree between transaction volume and sales volume
By screening and analyzing the transaction volume of customers, the monthly and annual data are compared with the monthly and annual sales of customers. Generally speaking, it is normal that the matching degree between them is 50%- 100%. If it is less than 50%, the possible reasons are that the daily account may not be the customer's main account, the customer's settlement method is not transfer (such as cash or acceptance), and the sales payment period is too long (less payment during the period);
If it is too high, such as 200%, the possible reasons are inaccurate screening, underestimation of sales, existence of other businesses, and inflated transaction flow. Whether it is too high or too low, it is necessary to further communicate with customers to find out the real reasons and reveal hidden risk factors.
(3) the matching degree between the average daily balance and the monthly repayment amount.
By analyzing the daily average balance of running water, it can be compared with the monthly repayment amount (equal repayment). Generally speaking, it is better than 1. If it is lower than 1, the repayment pressure of customers will be smaller. For example, the average daily balance of a customer is 10000, and the monthly repayment amount is 50000. Generally speaking, in the absence of other sources of repayment, the repayment pressure is even greater.
Second, credit analysis.
1, basic elements
As we all know, personal credit report includes eight main contents: basic identity information, residence information, occupation information, loan summary information, credit card summary information, loan details information, credit card details information and inquiry record information.
The enterprise credit report includes six main contents: basic information of enterprises, information of shareholders, information of affiliated enterprises, summary information of outstanding loans, summary information of loan history and information of unit deposits.
Step 2 Analyze the content
(1) Authenticity of credit investigation
At present, many institutions can package the customer's credit report, which can be analyzed from the following angles: First, the format and clarity, the credit report printed by the central bank has its own specific format, and the printing is relatively clear, such as the printing code of the footer; Second, compare it with the credit information dictated by customers, such as total liabilities, lending institutions, overdue situation, etc., to see if there is any difference; Third, the date and time of printing, generally long printing time, packaging is possible. If in doubt, you can accompany the customer to the central bank for printing.
(2) personal credit report analysis
First, the residence information, from which you can know where the customer has lived or how many properties there are;
Second, the occupation information, from which we can know which occupations the customer has engaged in, which companies he has worked in, which companies he has run, or which companies he is running now.
Third, loan summary information, from which we can find the total loan amount, total balance, monthly repayment amount, how many times overdue, how long overdue, more than 6 times overdue, and more than 3 months overdue, which requires special attention.
Fourth, credit card summary information, from which we can find out how many credit cards customers have, the total credit amount, the total overdraft amount, the maximum credit amount, the average overdraft amount, how many overdue times, the longest overdue, the overdraft ratio exceeds 80%, the longest overdue is more than 6 times, and the longest overdue is more than 3 months, which requires special attention.
Fifth, the detailed information of the loan, from which we can find out the information such as issuing institution, issuing date, loan term, maturity date, repayment method, guarantee method, five-level classification, monthly repayment amount and overdue situation, whether to repay in advance, etc. No matter whether the maturity date of the loan is near or not, the pressure of equal monthly repayment is great, and mortgage guarantee is easier to renew the loan than joint guarantee or credit. It should be noted that the bill is overdue for more than three times.
Sixth, the detailed information of credit cards, from which we can find the account opening date, credit institution, credit line, overdraft line, repayment amount and overdue situation of each credit card of customers. We need to pay attention to whether there are large credit cards in installments. Recently, we have handled a number of credit cards and issued loans in the form of credit cards. A single credit card has been used more than 6 times.
Seventh, query the record information, from which we can find out which institutions the customer has recently had loan approval, credit card application, guarantee audit and other information. For personal inquiry records, you need to ask the reasons one by one, and you need to pay special attention to those with more personal inquiries.
Eighth, the historical analysis of customer loans. In general, for customers with complex credit records, it is necessary to draw a customer loan history map according to the credit report, from which we can find the changes of customer loan institutions, the changes of the five elements of loans, and the important changes need to be asked from customers.
(3) Analysis of enterprise credit report
The basic information of an enterprise can be obtained through the inquiry of industrial and commercial information, and the credit information of an enterprise is generally lagging behind and inaccurate, so there is no need for too much analysis.
First, the analysis of affiliated enterprises. At present, the credit reports of many enterprises reflect the information of many affiliated enterprises, but there are many inaccuracies. You can check each enterprise through industry and commerce to see if there is any connection between shareholders or senior management. If yes, it can be confirmed as an affiliated enterprise.
Second, the disclosure of outstanding loan information in enterprise credit report is not as full as that in personal credit report, and only the existing total liabilities, loan products, release date, maturity date, customer five-level classification and so on can be paid attention to. As for the information about lending institutions, repayment methods, guarantee methods, interest rates, etc., we can only obtain it by asking customers and confirm it with common sense.
Third, the loan history information, the quarterly changes of the customer's loan amount are disclosed in the enterprise credit report, from which we can find the changes of the customer's loan amount, and we need to ask the customer when to increase or decrease the reason and the ins and outs of the funds.
3. Main risk points
(1) High-risk affiliated enterprises
From the analysis of credit information, if we find that customers have many affiliated enterprises or high-risk affiliated enterprises, we need to pay special attention. For example, customers have more than two affiliated enterprises that have nothing to do with their main business, or affiliated enterprises are involved in KTV entertainment industry.
(2) The credit record is overdue.
From the analysis of credit information, it is found that customers have loans that are overdue continuously or accumulated for more than 3 months, and a single credit card is overdue for more than 6 times or accumulated for more than 10 times, which needs special attention.
(3) Large loans due in the near future.
From the analysis of credit information, it is found that this customer has a large loan due recently. At this time, it is necessary to confirm its repayment source, loan renewal preparation and credit policy changes of the card issuer.
(4) Changes in historical lending institutions
From the analysis of credit information, it is found that customers' loans are gradually shifting from the five major state-owned banks to national joint-stock commercial banks, regional city commercial banks, rural commercial banks, rural banks and small loan companies, so it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of macro-situation and industry trends on customers.
(5) The demand for loans is urgent.
From the analysis of credit information, it is found that customers frequently apply for loans and credit cards in the near future, so they need to pay attention to which institutions they apply for loans, the application results and the reasons for rejection, and dig out the unfavorable information of customers from the side to prepare for the subsequent soft information.
From the analysis of credit information, if it is found that the customer's credit card overdraft ratio exceeds the standard and the credit card is in stages, it is necessary to pay special attention to the real reasons for its overdraft, which reflects to some extent that the customer's capital operation has been quite tense.
(6) The proportion of joint guarantee loans is too high.
From the analysis of credit information, if it is found that customers have more than 50% joint guarantee loans, we should pay special attention to the information such as bond issuing institutions, bond issuing history, joint guarantee targets, loan amount per household, loan maturity date and so on. And explore whether there is the risk of joint guarantee collapse and institutional contraction loan risk.
(7) Great changes have taken place in loans in the past three years.
From the analysis of credit information, if it is found that the total amount of customer loans has increased or decreased significantly in the past three years, we need to pay attention to the reasons for the increase, the whereabouts of funds and whether we can see the corresponding physical objects from assets. For the reduction, we need to pay attention to the reasons for the reduction, the source of repayment funds and the impact on the business.
In the actual combat of microfinance, running water and credit analysis are only a part of microfinance analysis. We can get a lot of hidden information from customers through running water and credit analysis and dig out possible risk points. For each risk point, we need to communicate with customers, understand its real reasons, and put it in the whole credit analysis, instead of looking at the problem in isolation and adopting a one-size-fits-all approach.
Extended data
Personal credit report is divided into five parts, namely: personal basic information, information summary, credit transaction information details, public information details and inquiry records.
1, personal basic information. When handling loan or credit card business, you will fill in relevant information, including your identity information, spouse information, residence information, occupation information, etc. , in which the identity information is directly imported into the credit information system by the bank loan officer.
2. A brief overview of bank credit business is generally in the information summary module. Here you can roughly see the total overdue amount, the number of overdue months, and the total debt you have in the bank, including the number of mortgages, loans, credit card accounts, and the total credit card. This module is an overview.
3. The most important module is credit transaction information details. Here you can see which cards or loans overdue you have, the number of overdue months, the overdue amount, and whether you have returned them in the end. But you can't tell which card number it is, but you can probably know which bank's card or loan you are, the total credit and so on.
4, male * * * information detail module, this piece shows the insured information, is to pay the old-age insurance case description.
5. The inquiry records include the summary of the inquiry records and the details of the institution's inquiry records, and the inquiry records are kept for 2 years. The more business you have in the bank, the more inquiry records you have. There will be a reason to ask after each item. Credit business mainly depends on credit card approval and loan approval.
Baidu encyclopedia-credit information