Standing loan facility is a monetary policy tool in the hands of the central bank, and it is also a monetary policy tool established by most central banks in the world. However, the names are slightly different in different countries, such as the discount window of the Federal Reserve, the marginal loan facility of the European Central Bank, the supplementary loan facility of the Japanese bank and the standing liquidity of the Canadian bank.
China introduced the standing loan facility in 20 13, with a term of no more than 3 months, with overnight, 7-day and 1 month cycles. Its essence is similar to mortgage loan, and collateral is generally bonds with high credit rating or other high-quality credit assets.
This standing loan facility is the behavior of the central bank to issue loans to banks in time to meet the temporary liquidity shortage of commercial banks, referred to as "SLF". Just like ordinary people borrowing money for emergencies, it is a tool for commercial banks to replenish liquidity in time. Similarly, just like ordinary people borrowing money for emergencies, generally speaking, when commercial banks take the convenient channel of standing loan to replenish liquidity, the loan interest rate will be relatively high.
Generally speaking, the standing loan facility is actually the upper limit of various interest rates of the central bank. Its rise will mean that market liquidity will be further tightened in the future. If we make a more exaggerated interpretation, it means that the central bank may take hard-core measures such as raising interest rates or reserve ratio.
So when this rumor comes out, it is not surprising that A shares suddenly plunged.
In this regard, we immediately responded on the afternoon of 65438+1October 29th: we noticed the relevant rumors, which were totally untrue. The People's Bank of China has reported this matter to the public security organ, and the central bank has reported the false news to the police. As soon as this warning message came out, the decline of A shares narrowed at the close.
In fact, with China's economy gradually returning to normal in the fourth quarter of 2020, the market has clear expectations for the central bank to further tighten liquidity in the future. My last article, "Today, the Shanghai property market was trapped for the second time. Can the room rate of 202 1 still take off? The monetary tightening trend of 202 1 is explained in detail.
In addition, the central bank did continue to tighten liquidity in the past week.
For example, on June 26, 65438, the central bank had 80 billion reverse repurchase due, and the central bank put in 2 billion reverse repurchase, with a net return of 78 billion (don't understand reverse repurchase? In fact, reverse repurchase is to release liquidity. If the reverse repurchase is no longer put in due, it is to withdraw funds).
65438+1net return on October 27th100 billion yuan.
65438+1net return on October 28th150 billion yuan.
The central bank actually withdrew about 300 billion yuan of liquidity in the last week. Coupled with the recent tightening of mortgage policies and the regulation of the property market in several first-tier hotspot cities, it further shows that the tightening of the central bank's monetary policy is now underway.
This is why the A-share market is so easily frightened by rumors.
In fact, this rumor is more likely to be an overreaction of the market, or an institution is looking for an opportunity and an excuse to withdraw completely, and before leaving, it does not forget to smash a hole in the market in order to enter the market on dips after the Spring Festival.
Therefore, further inference, this central bank alarm can also be seen as a signal to release comfort! You know, the central bank rarely calls the police. There have been two times before: on August 7, 20 19, it was said that from August 19, the central bank would lower the benchmark interest rates of RMB loans and deposits of financial institutions, and then the central bank made rumors and reported the case to the public security organs; On March 29, 20 19, it was circulated that the central bank would reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from April 29, 20 19, and the central bank subsequently denied the report.
The above two alarms have played a role in reversing the bad expectations of the market, so how much the central bank reacts means how strong this appeasement means.
We should know that the policy keynote of the economic work conference held in June 5438+February last year was: monetary policy should maintain the necessary support for economic recovery, and the operation should be more precise and effective, without making a sharp turn. In other words, with the gradual recovery of the domestic economy, the central bank will tighten liquidity, but in the short term, it will not come up with obvious and hard-core tightening policies such as raising interest rates. After all, countries such as Europe and the United States are still rushing to zero interest rates, further increasing the spread at home and abroad, increasing the arbitrage space of speculative currencies, and adversely affecting the domestic economy.
Then, we infer according to this logic, and the conclusion is that A shares will show a steady and gradual upward trend in the last two weeks before the Spring Festival.
See you next week if this judgment will hit your face!