In addition, the lending of real estate development loans also increased significantly in June 5438+ 10, and the lending of real estate loans of all banks further increased in the first ten days of June 5438+065438+ 10. It is expected that the growth trend of real estate loans will continue this month.
Today, the real estate sector rebounded strongly, with the Hong Kong stock market 15 real estate stocks rebounding by more than 10%.
For the first time, the central bank released the monthly data of individual housing loans separately. What is the signal?
"The reasonable financing needs of real estate are being met." 165438+1October 10 After the central bank released the statistics of individual housing loans in 20021and 10, a chief analyst of the financial industry commented.
On the same day, the central bank released the financial statistics report of 10 month, which showed that RMB loans of136.4 billion yuan increased by 826.2 billion yuan year-on-year. By sector, household loans increased by 464.7 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 42.6 billion yuan and medium-and long-term loans increased by 422,654.38+0 billion yuan.
It is worth noting that the central bank has also released the statistics of individual housing loans in 10, which is the first time that the central bank has released individual housing loan data separately. According to the data, at the end of 20021and 10, the balance of individual housing loans was 37.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 348 10/0/0/300 million yuan in that month, compared with September.
"The improvement of personal housing loans in June 5438+ 10 shows that residents' willingness to buy houses has increased marginally. "Zhang Xu, chief fixed income analyst of Everbright Securities, said. Zhaowei, chief economist of Open Source Securities, also said that the year-on-year shrinkage of residents' medium and long-term loans in June 5438+ 10 was related to the "loosening" of regulation in some provinces and cities, and the follow-up needs to be closely tracked.
According to the calculation of 2 1 Century Business Herald, as far as the medium and long-term loans of the above-mentioned residents are concerned, it is the first year-on-year increase since May this year, with an increase of10.62 billion yuan.
10 10 On October 20th, Liu He, Vice Premier of People's Republic of China (PRC), delivered a written speech at the 20021Financial Street Forum, saying that there are some problems in the current real estate market, but the risks are generally controllable, the reasonable capital demand is being met, and the overall situation of the healthy development of the real estate market will not change.
The reporter of 265438+20th Century Business Herald recently confirmed from a local central bank in a southern province that in June of 5438+00, the central bank had conveyed the contents of accurately grasping the prudent management policy requirements of real estate finance, steadily developing real estate loan business and keeping real estate credit stable and orderly, and branches of the People's Bank of China in some areas began to provide window guidance according to local conditions.
"Our leaders attended the relevant meetings, and after coming back, they also conveyed the main spirit of the meeting, but they did not let the record." The above-mentioned local central bankers told the reporter of 2 1 Century Business Herald.
Recently, the president of a branch of a joint-stock bank suggested at an internal meeting that the administrative purchase restriction policy in some areas can be appropriately relaxed, and the interest rate should properly take care of the housing needs of new citizens. The vice president of another joint-stock bank branch also suggested that the financial management department should gradually restore market confidence. If the house price falls sharply, it will generate greater risks and transmit them to the financial system.
Recently, the competent media of the central bank said that according to the current situation, under the condition of total control, the real estate credit adjustment of more institutions will be adjusted across regions; Whether the improved real estate credit policy environment can promote the steady development of the real estate industry, the formulation of subsequent policies and detailed rules and their implementation in various places are also key factors.
Zou Lan, director of the financial market department of the central bank, said at the press conference of financial statistics in the third quarter that it is a normal market phenomenon for financial institutions to shrink their risk appetite for the real estate industry at this stage; Some financial institutions have some misunderstandings about the financing management rules of pilot housing enterprises. They misunderstand that the balance of interest-bearing liabilities of "red-file" enterprises should not be increased, which means that banks should not issue new development loans, resulting in a tight capital chain for some housing enterprises.
In addition, according to relevant media reports, the credit environment of the second-hand housing market in Wuxi and Zhengzhou has continued to be loose recently. For example, some banks that suspended second-hand housing business in the past few months have resumed accepting second-hand housing loans; The second-hand housing mortgage business of some banks in Zhengzhou has basically returned to normal, and the lending speed has obviously accelerated.
In the third quarter, the leverage ratio of residents buying houses fell to a 9-year low.
Personal loans in the first three quarters of this year can be described as tight as a whole. The report "Research on the National Housing Leverage Ratio in the Third Quarter" released by Yiju Research Institute shows that in the third quarter of 2002/kloc-0, the balance of individual housing loans increased by 790 billion yuan, down 13% from the previous quarter and down 36% from the same period last year. Judging from the proportion of personal mortgage loans in the newly-increased RMB loans in China, in the third quarter of 20021,the newly-increased personal housing mortgage loans accounted for 20% of the newly-increased domestic loans, up by 2 percentage points from the previous month and down by 10 percentage point from the same period last year.
In the third quarter of 200213, the amount of personal housing loans continued to decline, and the proportion of personal housing loans in new RMB loans nationwide reached a new low since the same period of 20 14. The leverage ratio of the national residents to purchase houses has been declining, hitting a new low of nearly 9 years, and the 100-city house price index has a downward turning point.
In addition, the report pointed out that since the beginning of this year, the amount of bank loans in many cities has been tight and the loan period has been extended. Some cities have stopped lending for second homes and second-hand houses, and personal mortgage interest rates in key cities have been rising all the way, exceeding the high point of 5% in many places. In the third quarter of 2002/kloc-0, the leverage ratio of national residents' house purchase was 24.8%, which was 1.2 percentage points lower than that of last month and 6.8 percentage points lower than that of the same period last year. This indicator has been declining continuously since the second quarter of last year, hitting a new low of nearly nine years since the fourth quarter of 20 12.
However, after entering 10, the speed of mortgage lending in some areas has accelerated. "The bank's personal mortgage quota has been relaxed a lot recently, and the information is complete. There is no problem in lending." An intermediary who has been helping customers apply for bank loans for a long time said. It is understood that most banks in the region have sufficient quotas, and the fastest lending time is only 1 month, while the previous lending time is more than half a year.
The loan interest rate dropped first, and the real estate stocks are high today!
With the loosening of lending, the interest rate has also loosened, and the mortgage interest rate fell for the first time in June 5438+ 10. According to the RealData report, the average interest rates of the first and second home loans in 90 cities were 5.73% and 5.99%, respectively, down 1 basis point from last month.
Since the beginning of this year, due to the credit risk of individual real estate enterprises, financial institutions have strictly controlled the loans to the real estate industry, and even overcorrected them. The financial management department corrected this in time. Since September, the financial authorities have repeatedly stressed "to meet the reasonable capital demand of the real estate market".
At the end of September this year, the People's Bank of China and the Insurance Regulatory Commission of the Bank of China jointly held a symposium on real estate finance to guide major banks to accurately grasp and implement the prudent management system of real estate finance, maintain the smooth and orderly delivery of real estate credit, and maintain the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
For the obvious slowdown in the growth rate of real estate loans in the first three quarters, Zou Lan, director of the Financial Markets Department of the People's Bank of China, said in June 65438+ 10/5 that on the one hand, due to the recent risk exposure of some large real estate enterprises, the risk appetite of financial institutions for the real estate industry has dropped significantly, and there has been a consistent contraction behavior; On the other hand, some financial institutions have some misunderstandings about the "three-line and four-file" financing management rules, which makes it impossible for projects that should be reasonably supported to obtain loans, and also causes some housing enterprises to have a tight capital chain to some extent.
When the policy was loosened, the capital market immediately reveled. In June165438+1October 10, the real estate sector rose collectively, and the A-share real estate sector rose by 2.84%, ranking among the top gainers, among which Beijing Investment Development and Poly Development rose by over 7% and Gemdale rose by over 6%.
The H-share market rose more rapidly, with 15 stocks rising by more than 10%, of which Strength Jianye rose by 20.79% and Shimao Group rose by 16.93%.