According to market sources, dozens of key housing enterprises that have been included in the "three red lines" pilot project have been required by the regulatory authorities to buy land at a price not exceeding 40% of annual sales. This proportion limit includes not only the real estate enterprises' land acquisition in the open market, but also the expenditure on land acquisition through mergers and acquisitions.

"This is not a new policy." China Real Estate News reporter learned from a real estate developer who participated in the "Three Red Lines" symposium last year that after the introduction of the "Three Red Lines" regulatory policy last year, the regulatory authorities proposed to focus on supervising real estate enterprises whose land purchase amount exceeded 40% of annual sales, and then through dynamic supervision, required key real estate enterprises to submit relevant monitoring data every month.

"Now it is necessary to submit land acquisition information in the monthly monitoring form, including the proportion of land acquisition in sales." The real estate agent said.

A person from the first batch of "three red lines" pilot enterprises said, "Now it is based on income, and most housing enterprises do so."

In the eyes of an industry insider, this kind of regulatory thinking is not unexpected. Recently, high-level officials have continuously released signals to strengthen the supervision of real estate financing. On July 22nd, The Politburo Standing Committee (PSC) and Han Zheng, Vice Premier of the State Council of the People's Republic of China of the Communist Party of China pointed out, "We should firmly grasp the key of real estate finance, and strictly manage the' three lines and four files' financing of real estate enterprises and the concentration of real estate loans of financial institutions."

On this day, the relevant leaders of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development also said that "the next step will be to strengthen the financial control of real estate, improve the management rules of third-line and fourth-file financing of real estate enterprises" and "strengthen the coordination of housing, land, finance and credit policies".

Under a series of "negative" news, on July 26, real estate stocks suffered a "black" Monday, and many real estate stocks fell.

? "Pay attention to three dimensions"

At the end of August 2020, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and the Central Bank held a symposium on real estate enterprises in Beijing. The meeting pointed out that in order to control the growth of interest-bearing debts of real estate enterprises, "three red lines" were set up. 12 housing enterprises participating in the symposium became the first batch of pilot enterprises, namely Country Garden, Evergrande, Vanke, Sunac, Zhongliang, Poly Development, Xincheng Holdings, China Overseas Chinese Real Estate, OCT, Greenland Holdings, China Resources Land and Sunshine City.

On the last day of 2020, the relevant departments held the "Three Red Lines" symposium again, indicating that the number of pilot enterprises will be expanded, and the number may be expanded from 12 to 30. Five enterprises, Evergrande, Sunac, Sunshine City, Country Garden and Vanke, participated in the second symposium, and other housing enterprises, such as Huaxia Happiness, Jinmao, Shimao, China Merchants Shekou and Longhu, were added.

Under the "three red lines", housing enterprises have listed "zero stepping on the line" and debt reduction as the top priority. At the same time, however, market participants are constantly worried that although the new financing rules can effectively control the on-balance-sheet financial leverage of enterprises, it is still possible for housing enterprises to obtain external funds through off-balance-sheet liabilities; In addition, most of the important information of the joint venture model adopted by real estate enterprises has not been publicly disclosed, which may increase the difficulty of market evaluation and establishing the real credit index of enterprises.

Especially in the first batch of centralized land supply, the phenomenon that developers often "vest" land, use acquisitions and evade supervision is constantly exposed by the media. The aggressive land acquisition by some head housing enterprises has also attracted the attention of the regulatory authorities, and supervision has begun to escalate.

According to a brokerage source, since the beginning of this year, the regulatory authorities have conducted a "three red lines" pilot project for housing enterprises from three dimensions. First, the amount of accumulated equity land acquisition in that year cannot exceed 40% of accumulated equity sales; Second, the net cash flow generated by business activities in the past three years cannot be negative continuously; The third is to report the commercial ticket data every month.

On June 30, the central bank and other regulatory authorities included the commercial ticket data in the monitoring scope, requiring housing enterprises to report the commercial ticket data containing the "three red lines" monitoring data every month. Now, land acquisition data is also included in the monthly monitoring report that housing enterprises must report.

According to Bai Wenxi, chief economist of IPG China, the upper limit of 40% land acquisition amount greatly limits the space for real estate enterprises to use financial leverage and high turnover for large-scale swing, which inevitably has a negative impact on the land transfer income of local governments, but on the whole, it is conducive to the financial operation and cash flow of real estate enterprises to return to a safe and stable range.

Li, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, believes that this policy has a great impact on hot cities. Developers began to return to hot cities by taking land, especially the leading developers in the "two centralized" land supply model, launched a fierce competition for hot plots. Some developers still have the motivation of scale, and some enterprises are enthusiastic to rush to hundreds of billions and trillions of enterprises, which has a great impact on these enterprises.

? The sales proportion of these housing enterprises in the first half of the year has exceeded 40%

China Real Estate News reporter noticed that according to the upper limit of 40% of annual sales, among the top 30 real estate enterprises that acquired land in the first half of 20021,12 have crossed the line.

One is the "Zero Step Line" state-owned enterprise team of central enterprises, which is rich in funds and has become the main force in this round of land acquisition, such as China Merchants Shekou, China Resources Land, Yuexiu Real Estate and Jianfa Real Estate.

Yuexiu Property was the most radical land acquisition among state-owned enterprises and central enterprises in the first half of the year. According to Kerui's data, Yuexiu Property achieved a sales income of 48.7 billion yuan in the first six months, but it spent 43.6 billion yuan on land acquisition, with a sales ratio of 89.5%.

On April 26-27, in Guangzhou's centralized land supply, Yuexiu Property won 8 plots at one time, with the land acquisition amount of 1.7 1.97 billion yuan, becoming a well-deserved "dark horse".

In 202 1 year, the sales target of Yuexiu Property is11220,000 yuan. Based on this calculation, the upper limit of the annual land acquisition amount should be 44.88 billion yuan, which means that even if the annual performance target is achieved, Yuexiu's land acquisition and sales ratio will still exceed the standard.

At the annual performance conference a few months ago, LAM Raymond, vice chairman, executive director and general manager of Yuexiu Property, revealed that the company plans to purchase more than 52 billion yuan of land this year and continue to invest heavily.

The land acquisition and sales ratio of Jianfa Real Estate, China Merchants Shekou and China Resources Land in the first half of the year were 70.6%, 50.9% and 50.2% respectively, which also exceeded the standard.

Jianfa Real Estate achieved a sales income of 93.4 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a new land value of 65.92 billion yuan, and the sales ratio of land acquisition reached 70.6%. Moreover, Jianfa Real Estate frequently takes land at a high premium and wins the land king. Only last year did it break through the threshold of 1000 billion yuan.

It is worth noting that Jianfa Real Estate also frequently acquired land at a high premium last year, and has also won the "land king" many times before. While pursuing scale, Jianfa Real Estate is also facing some problems.

Jianfa Real Estate is not listed separately, but according to the data of Jianfa shares, the net operating cash flow of Jianfa shares in 2020 is 9.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 65,438+03.34%. In the first quarter of 20021,the operating cash flow of Jianfa shares decreased by 162.3% to-40.75 billion yuan; The asset-liability ratio reached 80.6%.

A real estate developer said that this time, the regulatory authorities made it clear again that the accumulated equity land acquisition amount should not exceed 40% of the accumulated equity sales amount. It is expected that these enterprises will appropriately reduce their land acquisition in the later stage and reach the standard of 40%.

The other category is the housing enterprises that have to sprint the scale at the risk of "stepping on the line". This part accounts for the majority, such as excellence group (the proportion of land acquisition and sales is 93.8%), Greentown China (65%), Zhong Jun Group (57.9%), China Communications Property (52. 1%) and New Hope Property (52.6%).

Excellence group has the highest proportion of land purchase and sale, with sales revenue of 68.3 billion yuan in the first half of the year, new land value of 64.06 billion yuan, and the proportion of land purchase and sale as high as 93.8%.

In the first half of the year, excellence group took four plots of land in Beijing. Among them, on May 1 1, the excellent consortium won the Zhongguancun Life Science Park plot and Dongxiaokou plot in Changping District. The upper limit of future land price is 63,000 yuan/square meter, but the floor price of this land has reached 53,200 yuan/square meter after bidding, and the price difference is less than 1000 yuan.

According to media reports, in June, 2020, 1 1, excellence group executives proposed at an internal meeting that they hoped to become the top 20 in the industry within two or three years. In addition to the scale appeal, the Hong Kong IPO sprint is also an important reason for the outstanding and intense land acquisition.

Greentown China acquired 88.8 billion yuan of land in the first half of this year, accounting for 65% of the current sales. In 2020, Greentown will take land frequently in the land market, which shows its ambition of scale expansion. According to some analysts, the advantage of Greentown China is the credit endorsement of the central enterprises of China Communications Group, the largest shareholder, to facilitate its financing in the capital market.

By the end of 2020, the net debt ratio and short-term cash debt ratio of Greentown China were 66% and 2, respectively, which met the regulatory requirements; However, the asset-liability ratio excluding advance accounts is 765,438+0%, which is still "stepping on" a red line. Agile, which sells more than 40% of its land, has also "stepped on" a red line.

It is worth noting that in the first half of the year, the sales ratio of land acquisition was 52. 1%, and CCCC Real Estate has stepped on the "three red lines". The data shows that its asset-liability ratio after excluding advance payment in 2020 is 83.4%, exceeding the red line value of 70%; The net debt ratio was 296.4%, up 146.2% year-on-year.

In contrast, some benchmark housing enterprises that have participated in the "Three Red Lines" symposium have "disappeared" from the list of the top 100 land acquisition enterprises. Under the pressure of debt, in order to meet the requirements of the country's "three red lines", they had to shrink land acquisition and even improve their financial situation by selling assets at a reduced price.

China Evergrande failed to make the list of the Top 100 Land Acquirers in the first half of the year, no matter in a hospital or in the list released by Kerry, and the minimum threshold for entering the list was 3.7 billion yuan. This means that China Evergrande 202 1 achieved little in the land market in the first half of the year.

Shimao, which just crossed the sales scale of 300 billion yuan last year, only got 7.48 billion yuan in the first half of the year, which is slightly different from the trend of high storage expansion in the past few years. In addition, in the first half of the year, the scale of land acquisition by real estate enterprises such as Zhongnan Land, Sunshine City, Agile and Caesar also slowed down significantly.

Analysts predict that after the implementation of the (40% land acquisition and sales ratio) policy, it is expected that the heat of the second batch of centralized land supply will be reduced, and the overall land premium rate will be lower.