4 trillion stimulus165438+1October 5, the State Council executive meeting studied and deployed ten measures to further expand domestic demand. Twenty days ago, the the State Council executive meeting also deployed ten economic tasks, the contents of which were similar, but this time it was refined to an astronomical figure of 4 trillion yuan. 4 trillion yuan covers large-scale infrastructure, housing, medical care, education, ecological environment construction, increasing residents' income, rural construction and other fields, mainly focusing on people's livelihood issues, but the initial capital investment will be placed on large-scale infrastructure. Wu Jiandong, an expert on development strategy, said: 4 trillion yuan is real money, but the biggest difference from previous fixed assets investment is that 4 trillion yuan is jointly funded by the central and local governments, and the central government has changed from an organizer to an investor. "This is the credibility of the government, so the market is shocked." It is understood that the central investment arrangement will reach1180 billion yuan in the next two years, and the source of funds may still be the same as ten years ago. The remaining 4 trillion yuan will be composed of local finance, local debt and special low-interest loans from state-owned banks. Wu Jiandong said: "The impact of the financial tsunami has intensified, and economic growth has shifted from export-driven to investment-driven. It's not too late. " On June 2 10, the GDP growth rate in the third quarter fell below 10% for the first time since 2005. In June 2008+00, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased significantly compared with the previous two months. The year-on-year growth rate of imports hit a new low since July 2007, and the growth rate of added value of industrial enterprises above designated size also hit a record in June 2005 since 2002. The severe macroeconomic situation is in front of us, so the State Council demands that the implementation measures be "fast, heavy, accurate and practical". The State Council asked all ministries and commissions to invest their funds in specific projects before the two sessions next year, so all ministries and commissions are doing their best. Within a week, more than half of the 6,543.8 trillion yuan of new investment planned by the central government has been allocated. It is estimated that all the new funds of 654.38+065.438+0 ministries and commissions will be implemented, including about 50 billion yuan of agriculture, forestry and water, and the remaining 50 billion yuan will be allocated by affordable housing and environmental protection departments. 165438+1October 1 1, after receiving the new investment of 20 billion yuan, the Ministry of Water Resources immediately allocated the new funds specifically; On the same day, the Ministry of Communications will also allocate an additional 6,543.80 billion yuan to the national highway network and rural highway construction projects under construction, accounting for half of the funds; The next day, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development will receive10 billion yuan as the new cost of affordable housing construction in the fourth quarter of this year. Other ministries have also announced plans for the fourth quarter of this year. In the second two months of this year, the Ministry of Railways will report 34 projects with an estimated total investment of 380 billion yuan, while the Ministry of Transport will invest 654.38+0.3 billion yuan to build airports and expressways by the end of the year. At the same time, the central government has also accelerated the approval process. 165438+ 10/2, the executive meeting of the State Council approved 205.9 billion yuan of fixed assets investment projects, including 93 billion yuan of west-east gas transmission projects, 95.5 billion yuan of nuclear power projects, and/kloc-0.74 billion yuan of water conservancy projects and civil airport projects. Quickly deploy ministries and commissions to take the lead in catching up with the unplanned money, because the new investment of 654.38 billion yuan will drive local and social investment of 400 billion yuan. However, compared with the new10 billion yuan this year, the 4 trillion yuan in the next two years is more interesting. June 65438+1 October 65438+July, after the fourth quarter economic work conference in the State Council proposed to increase infrastructure projects, the Ministry of Railways immediately reported that the State Council would increase its investment budget from 1.2 trillion yuan in the Eleventh Five-Year Plan to 2 trillion yuan, and the investment scale in the next two years is expected to reach1trillion yuan. The Ministry of Communications followed closely, reporting a total investment plan of about 5 trillion yuan, including 4.88 trillion yuan for highway construction and 654.38+30 million yuan for waterway and port construction. 165438+ 10 month 12 The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, which has the closest relationship with residents' housing, announced a high-profile investment of 900 billion yuan in the construction of affordable housing within three years. In addition, on the basis of ensuring the investment of 4.05 billion yuan in new projects during the year, China Southern Power Grid initially plans to invest about 60 billion yuan in urban and rural power grid transformation in the next two years. "Economic growth can't turn sharply. In the past few years, China's economic growth mainly relied on real estate to drive 50 upstream industries, but now it relies on fixed asset investment to achieve alternative growth. " Wu Jiandong believes that "the introduction of 4 trillion yuan is timely, but it is only the first step to expand domestic demand, and a lot of stimulus measures are needed." In Wu Jiandong's view, to maximize domestic demand, we must invigorate the rural market. He told reporters that according to the calculation of 65.438+00 billion square meters of rural houses in the suburbs, if these areas can enter the market circulation, then the suburban transformation can generate at least 654.38+00 trillion yuan of capital demand, and if the pilot can be implemented next year, it will at least activate the rural market consumption demand of 654.38+00 trillion yuan. There is no exact data on how many listed companies will be behind the 4 trillion yuan shared by everyone, but it seems that the capital market has already felt the trouble and all the funds are laid out in advance. This seems to confirm once again that the virtual economy is always faster than the real economy. Through statistics, we found that in the five trading days before the introduction of the 4 trillion stimulus plan, there were net purchases of funds, insurance funds, QFII and main hot money, which did not appear in the "4 24" and "919" markets. The stocks bought by these funds are almost concentrated in industries that will benefit from the 4 trillion stimulus plan, such as cement, building materials, engineering construction, machinery and railways. However, since the announcement of the 4 trillion stimulus plan, several funds have been divided. Regardless of politics, funds continue to follow the old road of "4 24" and "919" and flee on a large scale; Insurance funds are vigilant, enthusiasm cools down, and buying stamina is insufficient; Hot money attempts to seize the tail of policy effect, enthusiasm does not change, continue to add positions; QFII is determined to do more. Several big players have different models, and the market is worried that 4 trillion yuan will only bring a short-term market. What the market cares about is what we care about We conducted a questionnaire survey on 25 people in the industry. Nearly 60% of the respondents said that the 4 trillion stimulus plan has long been good for the capital market. More than half of the respondents believe that the market outlook will continue to fluctuate, and the bottom will be at the end of this year or the first half of next year. The reason is that 4 trillion yuan failed to change the economic cycle of China. However, perhaps these data can alleviate our worries: every 1 100 million yuan of highway investment can create 3,900 jobs, and every kilometer needs 500 tons of steel-1.500 tons, 4,000 tons of cement-1.200 tons, and 1.900 tons of asphalt. If the upstream and downstream industries are added together, the construction of affordable housing of 300 billion yuan per year will drive investment of 600 billion yuan; Next year, the investment scale of 600 billion yuan by the Ministry of Railways will create 6 million jobs, requiring 20 million tons of steel and 65.438+200 million tons of cement, which will boost GDP growth by 65.438+0.5 percentage points. In fact, 4 trillion covers almost the entire industrial chain, and many listed companies will be the beneficiaries of 4 trillion. Under the stimulus of 4 trillion yuan, the profits of listed companies will be enhanced, and the ability to repay shareholders will be improved, which is conducive to the reconstruction of market confidence and the recovery of liquidity. Wu Jiandong believes that 4 trillion yuan can stabilize the market and is a substantial measure to maintain stability. At this time, the state paid 4 trillion yuan to save the real economy and the capital market. "If you don't pay 4 trillion yuan now, when you are terminally ill, it will be powerless!" A mature and developed capital market usually accounts for 80%-90% of GDP. At present, the circulating market value of A shares is only 10 trillion yuan, which is less than half of last year's GDP. Wu Jiandong thinks this is extremely dangerous. Once the total market value shrinks to 600 million yuan, the consumption power will drop by at least 20% next year, the GDP will drop to 20 trillion yuan, and 30 million to 50 million people will face unemployment. The excessive depression of the capital market will not only cause a great reduction in national wealth, but more importantly, the national economy will be fatally damaged. "China, which has developed rapidly for nearly ten years, cannot accept the collapse of wealth, demand and production. However, whether 4 trillion yuan can finally stabilize the market depends on the follow-up policy. "

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