Is it different from the whole country?

October 8th is the day when my country’s mortgage interest rates begin a new era. Starting from this day, personal mortgage interest rate pricing "changed anchor" nationwide.

According to the central bank's August "Relevant person in charge of the People's Bank of China answers reporters' questions on personal housing loan interest rates", starting from October 8, the interest rate of new personal housing loans issued nationwide shall not be lower than the corresponding period. LPR (loan market quotation rate), the interest rate for a second personal housing loan shall not be lower than the LPR of the corresponding period plus 60 basis points.

But the latest news is that there is a high probability that the interest rate on first home loans in Shanghai can be reduced by LPR points.

The interest rates for newly issued housing loans in Shanghai are initially: the interest rate for the first personal housing loan shall not be lower than the LPR minus 20 basis points for the corresponding period; the interest rate for the second personal housing loan shall not be lower than the LPR plus 60 basis points for the corresponding period.

What exactly is Shanghai doing and why? What signal will this send to the property market?

1. Shanghai is different! Same as in Shanghai!

Careful netizens should still remember that after the central government once again mentioned "housing is for living, not for speculation", many places once again stepped up controls and tightened real estate-related financing, Shanghai's Lingang area relaxed purchase restrictions for the first time.

For details, please see the Leverage Game article, "Important Document Released! Another valuable lowland has been born in Shanghai. Is there any hope of investing in new areas? ” (August 30).

In fact, this incident illustrates two points:

1. As long as local governments can implement and fulfill the principle of "housing is for living, not for speculation" and appropriately adjust regulatory policies according to the needs of different sectors and regions, they will It just works. Nanjing, Guangzhou, Zhuhai, etc. have actually taken action.

It’s just that Shanghai is really too dazzling, that’s why it attracts so much attention. At the same time, the Shanghai Free Trade Zone Lingang New Area was approved, bringing its own traffic.

2. Shanghai is indeed different. Whether it is the approval of the new free trade zone area, the central government has clear and clear considerations regarding its positioning and expectations in the national strategy, or Shanghai's regional development needs.

To a certain extent, Shanghai is really different from other cities. This kind of treatment is probably only available in a few cities.

For example, many years ago, Shanghai and Chongqing became the first cities to collect property taxes. Regardless of whether it is called real estate tax, real estate tax, or real estate tax, the connotations are indeed different. But when it comes to residential taxation, the matter is different.

Also for example, Shanghai has long been the city with the most friendly interest rates for first home mortgages in recent years. Many prices are 10% off, while in other cities, prices are basically 10-15% higher. This is the first time. For two sets, the price can easily rise above 20.

So, from the perspective of not affecting the overall pattern of previous mortgage interest rates, it is understandable that Shanghai’s first home loan interest rate will be reduced by a few points on the basis of LPR. The purpose is simply to keep interest rates basically unchanged.

The central bank made it very clear in its "Reporter's Questions" that compared with before the reform, interest payments by households applying for personal housing loans are basically unaffected.

I don’t deny it, this was beyond almost everyone’s expectations. After all, Shanghai and the central bank’s document instructions were inconsistent. But Leverage Games believes that this is what makes Shanghai different.

The same thing is that for second homes, Shanghai is still no less than the LPR plus 60 basis points for the corresponding period. This is completely consistent across the country.

In other words, the general tone of housing for living and not for speculation is not special to any city. Precisely, we see that Shanghai, Beijing, and Shenzhen are cities that have implemented this spirit very early and thoroughly and resolutely.

Of course, the final situation of Shanghai’s new housing loan interest rate plan has yet to be officially determined. At the same time, different banks actually have their own considerations. In the future, we will increasingly respect the market.

2. Behind the rumors of Shanghai’s new interest rate plan for first-time home buyers: market interest rates change, but policies are eternal

Many times, people ignore that whether it is the "People's Bank of China-related The person in charge answered a reporter’s question on personal housing loan interest rates. Before the implementation of LPR as the main loan interest rate mechanism, the rise and fall of housing loan interest rates were basically determined by the guidance of the central bank.

Sometimes it is a window guidance, a hint.

But any bank must understand it. Because regulation or stimulation are all for economic goals and social purposes.

The LPR mechanism plays a central role in the loan market quotation rate. From now on, all major lending activities will be based on this, and base points will be added when necessary. Regardless of the real estate industry, housing loans, development loans, or other industrial and commercial loans, there is no exception.

The market will also dynamically adjust this quoted interest rate every month.

So, market interest rates are first of all floating and changing. It will no longer remain unchanged. Although the base interest rate has not been cancelled, its effect is lower than before.

As for the real estate industry, especially personal mortgage loans, the central bank will adjust it in a timely manner based on economic and social needs.

To put it simply, from the perspective of leverage games, the "Relevant person in charge of the People's Bank of China answered reporters' questions on personal housing loan interest rates" in August 2019 is just a document to guide housing loan interest rates in the near future.

In the future, even some time next year, when further regulation is needed, you can also ask for an increase in basis points. The basis point can even be lowered based on economic needs, as long as it does not exceed the document requirements.

So I say that regulation is not eternal, but regulation or not (policy) is eternal. There are only two situations in this world, regulation and non-regulation. The actual interest rate of mortgage loans will be subject to different documents depending on whether it is a regulatory period or a non-regulation period.

In this way, interest rate policy is the baton.

In the final analysis, mortgage interest rate policy must meet the current economic and social needs.

In fact, if you look at the history of real estate development in the United States, Japan and other countries, you will understand that real estate will always have the attribute of "chamber pot". We are no different from them, or we are all the same.

3. Whether to encourage increased leverage is the simplest signal for the property market

Previously, Leverage Game has written about whether regulation will continue to have multiple signals, such as whether regulation policies will be withdrawn, such as interest rates, Such as taxes and fees, such as whether to encourage or not...

In fact, there is so much to say, it can be summarized simply, that is: interest rate signals, whether to encourage leverage.

Looking at Shanghai, even if the first-time home interest rate is allowed to be reduced by one basis point this time, the extent will be limited at first. It is basically the same as the previous 15% off interest rate for first-time buyers.

At the same time, the policy on adding base points for second homes is no different from the national and central bank requirements. I've already written about it above.

Then the signal is clear. Shanghai is not encouraging residents to increase leverage. Rather, I sincerely hope to give first-time homebuyers some opportunities to get started, and hope that everyone will pay less interest.

It can be said that this is considerate of first-time home buyers. Thinking about the unit price of houses in Shanghai, it is really warm to do this. Of course, it is a touch of warmth against the background of higher housing prices.

Something is better than nothing. The little you can save counts.

Looking across the country, we found that except for Shanghai, almost no city does this. This shows that the determination to control is rock solid.

From the perspective of leverage games, this is the biggest signal for the current property market.

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