Brief introduction of market interest rate
Market interest rate refers to the interest rate determined by the relationship between supply and demand in the capital market. Market interest rates often change due to changes in supply and demand in the capital market. With the market mechanism playing a role, the supply and demand of credit funds will gradually become balanced due to free competition. Economists call this state market interest rate? Equilibrium interest rate? . The official interest rate corresponds to the market interest rate, and the so-called official interest rate refers to the interest rate set by the monetary authorities. The monetary authority can be a central bank or a government department with actual financial management functions. Before the implementation of the reform and opening-up policy, the interest rate in China was basically the official interest rate. In the process of reform and opening up in recent 20 years, with the changes in capital allocation and financing pattern, the proportion of market interest rate in the interest rate system has gradually increased. Official interest rate and market interest rate analyze the interest rate form from the perspective of capital price determination. In fact, under the background of unifying the official interest rate, the market interest rate will take many forms, which are determined by various financing forms, unbalanced economic development of a country, market segmentation and other factors. For example, in China, there is a considerable gap between the economically developed coastal areas and the economically backward central and western regions.
Formation of market interest rate
When the capital market is completely open, the management of interest rate is basically lifted, and funds are really regarded as commodities, the interest rate is determined by the supply and demand of funds in the market. Funds are tight, supply is less than demand, and interest rates rise: funds are loose, supply is greater than demand, and interest rates fall. Conversely, interest rates can affect the supply and demand of funds, and promote the balance of supply and demand of funds when the supply of funds exceeds demand. Due to the profitability of liquidity, market funds are redundant. When interest rates fall, the interest of fund suppliers will be reduced, which can encourage some funds originally intended to be invested in the capital market to be used in other aspects, such as increasing consumption, hoarding goods that can preserve value, expanding the production and operation of enterprises, and investing in stock and futures markets, so as to achieve the purpose of maintaining and increasing value and reduce the supply of market funds. At the same time, due to the lower interest rate, raising funds from the market for new enterprises or expanding the production or operation scale of existing enterprises, the interest burden is reduced, and it is in a relatively favorable position, with more fundraisers and increased capital demand. This may gradually balance the supply and demand of funds in the market. On the other hand, if the demand for funds in the market exceeds the supply and the interest rate rises, it will cause a series of opposite economic activities. That is, people squeeze some funds into the market from all aspects, such as selling stocks, futures, real estate, precious metals and so on. In order to get more interest income; At the same time, due to the increase in the cost of raising funds, the profits that may be obtained from the use of such funds will be reduced, so as to raise funds from the market as little as possible to alleviate the shortage of funds. Since the opening of China's capital market, the interest rate determined by capital supply and demand has not really formed. In fact, the interest rate in the capital market is based on the bank interest rate, that is, it is set by the capital market management department according to the principle of slightly higher than the bank interest rate. The market interest rate is slightly higher than the bank interest rate, because most of the unit credits financed in the market are not as good as those of banks.
It should be mentioned that the financial markets in capitalist countries are closely linked with foreign markets and have a certain degree of internationalization. The high interest rate in the capital market can attract foreign investment and increase the domestic capital supply. For example, the high interest rate policy implemented by the United States in the early 1980 s attracted a lot of foreign funds. On the contrary, a country's low interest rate not only reduces the number of foreigners who come to invest in the country, but also reduces the domestic capital supply. Therefore, the increase and decrease of capital in capitalist countries are very flexible, and interest rates have a significant regulatory effect on the capital market. In China, because the level of enterprises is not high enough, people's interest concept is weak, and interest has relatively little influence on the supply and demand of funds. However, the fact that the interest rate of savings deposits has been raised many times in recent years, which has brought about a substantial increase in livestock deposits and aroused strong repercussions from enterprises when the loan interest rate was raised shows that China's interest rate still has many influences on the supply and demand of funds, and these influences should not be underestimated.
Influencing factors of market interest rate
Market interest rate has an important influence on bond prices. Generally speaking, market interest rates rise and bond prices fall; As the market interest rate drops, the bond price tends to rise. The trend of interest rate is influenced by many factors.
Macroeconomic situation factors
Economic cycle. From the economic cycle, after the economic recession, products are unsalable, profits are reduced, investment is reduced, and the amount of money in circulation is increased, which leads to a decline in interest rates. From recession to economic crisis, a large number of enterprises closed down, the market was depressed, funds were plentiful, and interest rates fell to the lowest point. The economy will recover slowly after reaching the lowest point. At this time, goods will start to have a certain sales volume, market investment will be profitable, and interest rates will slowly rise. When the economy reached the stage of prosperity from recovery, commodity production capacity and output increased greatly, commodity sales were in good condition, enterprises began to make a lot of profits, investment increased greatly, money became a scarce factor, and interest rates rose to the highest point.
The influence of the latest macroeconomic situation on market interest rate
The macroeconomic situation and the tension of bank credit are the main factors affecting private financing activities. Especially in the context of the macroeconomic downturn this year, the central bank's monetary policy makes financial institutions relatively abundant, and it is relatively difficult for enterprises to borrow from banks, which will inevitably weaken the capital demand of private lending channels.
The data shows that the average interest rate of 10 day is 2 1.73%, 1 month, 17.07%, 3 months, 19.08%, 6 months, 1 6.44.
Gross domestic product growth rate. According to the statistics of western developed countries and some emerging market economies, there is a strong positive correlation between GDP growth rate and interest rate from 198 1 to 2000. Before 1987, China's GDP growth rate was basically independent of interest rates. However, after 1988, with the gradual improvement of economic marketization, the correlation and interaction between GDP growth rate and interest rate are getting higher and higher, and the changing direction is gradually consistent. Price level. The price level reflects the price of the real economy, and the interest rate reflects the price of funds. If the ex-factory price of industrial products drops sharply, it shows that the demand is seriously insufficient, which has formed a strong constraint on national economic investment and the interest rate will show a downward trend; However, if the consumer price index rises by a large margin, it means that the start of consumer demand will restrain the decline of other price indexes to a certain extent, and interest rates will show an upward trend.
Social average profit rate. As a value-added part of capital, interest comes from industrial profits. Historically, due to the development of science and technology and the improvement of the organic composition of capital, the average social profit rate has a downward trend. Therefore, the average social interest rate also shows the same trend, but this process is very slow, that is, the average interest rate is relatively stable in the short term and shows a downward trend in the long term.
The influence of the international economic and financial situation. With the development of economic and financial globalization, the choice of monetary policy will be more and more restricted by international economic and financial factors. For example,? 9? 1 1? This incident affected the economic growth of the United States and China, and became one of the factors that contributed to the decline of interest rates.
The influence of central bank's monetary policy on the interest rate of statutory deposit reserve. When the deposit reserve interest rate is raised, the market interest rate shows an upward trend; On the contrary, the market interest rate shows a downward trend. At present, the reserve interest rate (1.89%) is the lowest in the inter-bank bond market. Once the bond market yield is lower than 1.89%, investors will not conduct bond business operations.
Central bank's foreign exchange market operation. If the central bank throws out RMB and buys dollars, the RMB in circulation will increase and the market interest rate will drop; On the contrary, the market interest rate will show an upward trend.
There are two ways to operate the open market: spot trading and repurchase trading. When the central bank continues to buy bonds, the market interest rate will fall; If the central bank keeps selling bonds, the market interest rate will rise. When the central bank continues the repurchase operation, the interest rate will show an upward trend; When the central bank continues to carry out reverse repurchase operations, interest rates will show a downward trend.
Rediscount rate rediscount refers to the financing business in which commercial banks take discounted bills to the central bank and apply for discounting again at the rediscount rate. When the central bank raises the rediscount rate, the market interest rate shows an upward trend; When the central bank lowered the rediscount rate, the market interest rate showed a downward trend.
The role of market factors, the concentration of funds. If the funds are highly concentrated in the hands of large institutions, the demand for bond trading will be relatively small. Once these institutions trade, it will have a great impact on the market interest rate, and then the interest rate may fluctuate greatly. Conversely, the lower the concentration, the more stable it will be.
Number of newly issued bonds. When the number and frequency of issuing bonds are high, the amount of money in the market decreases rapidly and the market interest rate tends to rise; When the number of bonds issued is small and the frequency is low, the market funds are loose and the market interest rate will show a downward trend.
Stock issue. Because the issuance of new shares occupies a certain amount of funds, it can often cause large fluctuations in the repurchase rate. At this time, some institutions will integrate funds through repurchase, and the demand for funds will increase. As a result, interest rates may rise.
Credit of the issuer. The higher the credit, the higher the security, the smaller the risk and the smaller the income. National debt is issued with national credit, with the highest credit and the lowest in coupon rate; Corporate bonds are the credit of enterprises, with the lowest credit, so it is necessary to attract investors with a higher coupon rate.
Interest tax. Interest income from financial bonds and corporate bonds is subject to interest tax of 20%, and national bonds are exempt from tax. Therefore, the coupon rate of national debt is generally lower than that of corporate debt.
Liquidity premium. The better the liquidity, the smaller the risk and the lower the bond yield; Bond liquidity is not strong and liquidity risk is high, which needs to be compensated by higher yield.