On January 16th, the People's Bank of China released data showing that RMB loans increased by 16.81 trillion yuan in 219, an increase of 643.9 billion yuan year-on-year, setting a new record; In 219, the cumulative increase of social financing scale was 25.58 trillion yuan, 3.8 trillion yuan more than the previous year.

from the perspective of growth rate, the growth rate of social financing scale and M2 growth rate in 219 all went up. According to the preliminary statistics of the central bank, the stock of social financing scale at the end of 219 was 251.31 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, while the year-on-year growth rate of social financing at the end of 218 was 1.3%.

Zhou Xuedong, director of the General Office of the People's Bank of China, said: "The higher the social integration index, the better, as long as it is reasonable within a certain time period. If the scale of social integration is too high, it will push up the leverage level of the whole society, which will bring inflation concerns. If it is too low, it will reflect that financial institutions are not serving the real economy. "

the data released by the central bank also shows that the balance of broad money (M2) increased by 8.7% year-on-year at the end of December 219, while the growth rate of M2 in December 218 was 8.1%.

Ruan jianhong, director of the investigation and statistics department of the central bank, said at the press conference held on the afternoon of January 16th that the M2 growth rate rebounded in 219, which was the result of the central bank's adherence to prudent monetary policy and countercyclical regulation. However, the inclusion of national debt and general bonds of local governments in social integration statistics will make the statistical data more complete and comprehensive, and be conducive to the coordination of fiscal policy and monetary policy.

"At the end of 219, M2 increased by 8.7% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations. I observed that it was mainly affected by two factors. First, RMB loans increased by 16.81 trillion yuan in the whole year, an increase of 643.9 billion yuan year-on-year, and derivative deposits increased; Second, in December last year, China's trade surplus was 46.79 billion US dollars, the highest since the second half of last year. As the RMB exchange rate turned from depreciation to appreciation, it is expected that foreign exchange holdings will improve and the base currency will be increased. " Wen Bin, chief researcher of Minsheng Bank, said.

In addition, Li Qilin, chief economist of Yuekai Securities, said that in addition to M2, M1, as a representative of the vitality of economy and enterprise operation, also showed a marked improvement in December, with a rebound trend for two consecutive months, which is a positive signal for the economy.

In terms of future monetary policy, Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the Central Bank, said that in 22, the People's Bank of China will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy, maintain flexibility and moderation, pay attention to internal and external balance, and maintain the growth of broad money M2 and social financing scale.

where did the new credit go?

Not only did the scale of RMB credit and social financing hit a record high in 219, but compared with 218, the credit structure was also optimized, and the proportion of medium and long-term loans invested in entity enterprises and manufacturing industries increased significantly.

"Overall, the financial data is improving, the structure is being optimized, the medium and long-term loans of enterprises are picking up, and the financial support for entities is strengthening." Yan Jianhong said.

specifically, the data released by the central bank shows that among the 16.81 trillion new loans in 219, the primary source is medium-and long-term loans from non-financial enterprises and government organizations, followed by medium-and long-term loans from residents, mainly mortgage loans. In 219, loans from non-financial enterprises and government organizations increased by 9.45 trillion yuan, up by 1.14 trillion yuan over the same period of last year, and new corporate loans accounted for 56.2% of all new loans, up by 4.83 percentage points over 218.

in addition, the proportion of medium and long-term loans and the proportion of medium and long-term loans in manufacturing industry have also increased. According to the data of the central bank, the proportion of new medium-and long-term loans to all new loans in 219 was 67.4%, up 2.16 percentage points from the end of last year; Ruan Jianhong also said at the press conference that in 219, medium and long-term loans in manufacturing industry increased by 14.9%, the highest since 212.

in terms of the scale of social financing, RMB loans to the real economy reached 16.88 trillion yuan in 219, an increase of 1.21 trillion yuan year-on-year, accounting for 66% of the total new social financing in the whole year. The scale of off-balance-sheet financing such as entrusted loans, trust loans and undiscounted bank acceptance bills continues to decrease net, but the reduction rate is significantly narrower than that in 218; The net financing of corporate bonds under direct financing was 3.24 trillion yuan, 69.8 billion yuan more than the same period of last year, showing a great growth.

on the other hand, RMB loans increased by 1.14 trillion yuan in December 219, an increase of 54.3 billion yuan over the same period of last year. In the direction of money and credit in early 22, many bank branch leaders interviewed in the 21st century said that on the one hand, there will be more large-scale government and infrastructure projects at the beginning of the year, on the other hand, banks will continue to strengthen their support for small and medium-sized enterprises.

"The regulatory authorities have also been emphasizing that finance should strengthen its support for the real economy, so we have been maintaining credit supply. From the perspective of regional observation, the credit demand of enterprises in the Pearl River Delta region where private manufacturing industries gather has picked up after the fourth quarter of last year. It is expected that the signing of the Sino-US trade agreement will further promote the business of manufacturing and import and export enterprises in the Pearl River Delta and enhance the credit demand of enterprises. " The deputy governor of a state-owned bank branch in the Pearl River Delta region said.

how will the monetary policy go in p>22?

Since the beginning of p>22, the price of funds in the money market has gone up. After the central bank implemented a comprehensive RRR cut on January 6, it launched a large amount of money in the open market for two consecutive days to ensure a reasonable and sufficient liquidity.

Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department of the central bank, said at the press conference held on January 16th that the central bank has recently provided liquidity with different maturities through medium-term lending facilities, open market operations and other means, so as to keep liquidity in the banking system reasonably abundant, the liquidity stable before the Spring Festival and the money market interest rate running smoothly. If we observe the changes of interest rates in the money market, we can find that it is still relatively stable. The central bank will continue to adopt monetary policy operations to ensure the stability of liquidity before the Spring Festival, and also provide a good liquidity environment for financial institutions to support the real economy.

in addition to the liquidity problem, the market is also very concerned about the trend of monetary policy in 22, especially the RRR cut and interest rate cut.

In terms of RRR reduction, Sun Guofeng said that at present, the average statutory deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 9.9%, that of large commercial banks is 12.5%, that of medium-sized banks is 1.5%, and that of small banks is 7%. After calculating the two advantages, the actual statutory deposit reserve ratio of most serving county banks is 6%. "Internationally, China's statutory deposit reserve ratio is at a moderate level. There is still room for China to lower the deposit reserve ratio in the future, but the space is limited." Sun Guofeng said.

In terms of interest rate reduction, Sun Guofeng responded that with the reform of interest rate marketization, we should pay more attention to the change of actual loan interest rate when discussing interest rate reduction. "Last year, the overall market interest rate went down, and the LPR reform promoted the effect of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, and the credit interest rate level dropped significantly." Sun Guofeng said, "The benchmark deposit interest rate will remain for a long time, and it will be adjusted appropriately according to changes in the economic situation."

"recently, the macro economy has stabilized and inflationary pressure is still there. I don't expect the MLF interest rate to be adjusted for the time being. Due to the overall RRR cut of .5 percentage points at the beginning of this year, the bank's capital cost has dropped. It is expected that the LPR interest rate will drop slightly by 5 BP this month. In addition, 257.5 billion yuan of TMLF will expire on January 23, and it is expected to expand the scale of sequel. " Wen Bin said.

Tang Jianwei, Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications, also said that the current effect of interest rate reduction (lowering MLF operating interest rate) has limited effect on reducing the financing cost of entity enterprises. It is expected that before the completion of the stock loan switching pricing benchmark, the monetary control will be based on quantitative policies, and the MLF operating interest rate will be lowered or will be after March.

In terms of credit supply, Zou Lan, Director of Financial Markets Department, said that the proportion of real estate credit resources will be strictly controlled, and commercial banks will be guided to change their business ideas and focus on the real economy and small and micro enterprises. The central bank will further study and deploy commercial banks to serve small and micro enterprises.