At the monthly data analysis meeting of CMF jointly sponsored by National Development and Strategy Research Institute of Renmin University of China, School of Economics and China Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd., Yu Ze, a professor at Renmin University of China, said that the large-scale improvement of economic indicators in the first three quarters was the comprehensive effect of China's successful epidemic prevention, industrial integrity, huge market scale, policy promotion and external substitution. Future recovery can be expected, but the logic behind this sustained road is changing.
In Yuze's view, after May, China's economic recovery path gradually returned to the right track from policy-driven, and it also encountered cyclical problems since 20 19. The investment and consumption in manufacturing industry were insufficient, which was amplified under the epidemic. Because of this path, a recovery pattern led by infrastructure, real estate and automobiles has emerged in China.
"At present, the insufficient consumption in China is overshooted, and the contribution of consumption to economic growth will gradually increase in the future. According to the forecast, the economic growth rate may remain above 5.5% in the fourth quarter and will reach about 2% in the whole year. However, due to the problem of insufficient consumption, China's recovery path has not formed an automatic circulation mode within the market. Under this circumstance, there may be a risk that the economic growth rate is less than expected. " Yu Ze said, therefore, under the new development pattern, it is necessary to further play the central role of consumption, especially to solve the problems of supply of production factors, market demand and technical support. In terms of policy, it is even more necessary to speed up reform. However, the fiscal policy and monetary policy, which played a great role in the early stage, are not suitable for fast gear shifting at present, and should be fine-tuned on the basis of the same general direction.
Policies support economic recovery
This year, investment has played a stable role in promoting the economy. But in the process of investment, it is mainly driven by real estate investment. In September, investment in infrastructure construction has turned positive; Although the cumulative growth rate of total social retail sales is still negative, more is the suppression of consumption in the early stage, but after August, the monthly growth rate of consumption began to turn positive.
An unexpected situation lies in the contrarian growth of exports. By September, the export growth rate was above 9%. It is understood that this year's exports have also changed. From the initial export of epidemic prevention materials to July and August, the export growth rate of electromechanical and high-tech products began to exceed that of epidemic prevention materials. In Ze's view, this shows that China plays an irreplaceable role in the world industrial chain. In terms of imports, there was a marked improvement in September, especially in automobiles, semiconductors and agricultural products, which not only reflected the further recovery of domestic production, but also effectively promoted the first-phase trade agreement with the United States.
"Overall, most indicators in the first three quarters of China basically turned positive at both ends of production and demand." Yu Ze said.
From the policy point of view, before May, macro-policies played a supporting role in China's macro-economy: on the one hand, through the fiscal deficit and national debt increased by 2 trillion, tax reduction and fee reduction increased by 6 trillion, local special debts increased, and new financial funds exceeded 8 trillion; On the other hand, in terms of monetary policy, it has increased liquidity and reduced the price of funds, creating conditions for maintaining the stable operation of the stock market and finance after the Spring Festival.
It is worth noting that the monetary policy not only keeps the financial market relatively stable, but also provides targeted credit relief to enterprises through refinancing and rediscount policy, thus maintaining the main body of the market. Therefore, the current achievements actually benefit from the macro-policy efforts in the first quarter and early second quarter.
"After the outbreak of the epidemic, the central bank's 300 billion anti-epidemic refinancing was quickly introduced. After that, it continued to increase prices, refinance and rediscount, creating a tool for direct contact with entities. Many enterprises get refinancing and rediscount from the People's Bank of China at an interest rate of about 2.2%, and then lend at an interest rate of about 3.5%. Plus financial benefits, it is almost 1.8%. I don't think this is easy. The central bank decisively uses innovative tools in fiscal and monetary policies. With the full cooperation of fiscal policy, this time is a classic case. " Yao Yudong, deputy general manager of Dacheng Fund and former director of the Financial Research Institute of China People's Bank, said.
However, in May, there was a certain shift in macro-policies, which was relatively tightened. In Yuze's view, after May, many economic logics are gradually returning to the state of 20 19. For example, there are some shortcomings in the process of supporting consumption, so in the third quarter, consumption is still in a negative state for the cumulative growth of the entire China economy. Due to the blocked consumption, in the process of the recovery path dominated by infrastructure, real estate and automobiles, the consumption multiplier cannot be effectively formed, and a complete cycle cannot be formed, which leads to the fragmentation of China's current cycle.
"Therefore, we need to guide the recovery after the epidemic to a new development model and do more work in domestic consumption, processing trade transformation and industrial safety." Yu Ze said.
Fiscal and monetary policies should not change rapidly.
In the view of Liu Yuanchun, vice president of China Renmin University, under the background of the world's total shutdown and China's accelerated recovery, it is a good review and crisis drill for China's industrial chain, supply chain, international economic cycle and domestic economic cycle, which creates a strategic opportunity for China to establish a new development pattern based on domestic economic cycle and mutual promotion between international and domestic cycles.
Therefore, we should see that only when we see the strategic significance of winning positive growth under this background can we firmly set the basic tone for the next step in the accelerated period of "the biggest change in a hundred years", the turbulent period of world economic adjustment, the critical period of two hundred years and the crucial period of adjustment.
"After the two sessions, a package of policies began to unfold. A large number of large-scale projects, especially two new projects, have just begun to be laid out in the past four months and have not yet been fully launched. Therefore, in the next few months, finance should not undergo a fundamental change. " Liu Yuanchun said.
Yao Yudong also believes that the future monetary policy should be implemented more cautiously and steadily, rather than hastily. "Next year's fiscal policy must be withdrawn: 1 trillion special national debt is gone; Local special bonds are difficult to issue 4 trillion special bonds because of various factors such as insisting on housing and not speculating; The central fiscal deficit will definitely return to less than 3%. As a result, fiscal policy will shrink sharply. At this time, monetary policy should not be withdrawn quickly. I think it is more appropriate to maintain the current posture. " He said.
Yu Ze suggested that the current fiscal and monetary policies need to maintain the current strength, neither excessively overweight nor relaxed; From the perspective of inclusive finance, the leverage ratio should be appropriately increased; In the process of transformation, the international attractiveness of asset prices and RMB has increased, so sufficient policy space should be reserved; Further promote the reform of the capital market, form a complete capital cycle in China through domestic dividends, and further stimulate consumption.
"We have taken many special measures now, and we must realize that' drugs have three poisons'. This kind of' poison' is manifested in financial problems as risk accumulation and risk delay. How to deal with the problems caused by risk delay and accelerated accumulation in the future needs great attention. The fundamental problems in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year are not serious, but a series of structural problems, short-term problems and problems in the process of policy normalization will still pose a strong challenge to us. Under the current situation of comprehensive good news, we still have to maintain a cautious and optimistic attitude, firmly grasp the current period of strategic opportunities, make good use of this window period, and do a good job in China's economy. " Liu Yuanchun said.