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"Can you write an LPR that ordinary people can understand?" On Saturday, in "The Influence of Billions of People! The central bank announced that the mortgage was "re-priced" and the interest rate decline channel has been opened. In the article, some netizens left a message. ?
This super big move put by Yang Ma at the weekend made LPR enter the daily life of thousands of households and everyone. It is no exaggeration to say that this is an epoch-making change. In the sense of industry, it means that China's traditional benchmark interest rate era has entered the market interest rate era.
In terms of influence, it means that each of us has a new coordinate in financial behavior.
It is closely related to each of us, so it is necessary for us to have a thorough and comprehensive understanding of this new thing-for the vast majority of people.
02
Before popularizing the concept of LPR, it is necessary for us to have a more detailed understanding of the background of the overall anchor change of stock loans. As mentioned in the last draft, the central bank issued the announcement 1999 12 on August 25th this year 16, requiring that the new housing loan contract interest rate should be LPR instead of the original benchmark interest rate. The document issued on February 28, 65438 clearly stipulates that from June 28, 2020 to June 28, 654381October 28, all financial institutions shall not sign floating interest rate loan contracts with reference to the loan benchmark interest rate. This means that from June 5438+ 10/,that is, the day after tomorrow, China will only have two new financial loan contracts:
1, a fixed interest rate contract with a specific interest rate directly agreed and which will not fluctuate in the future;
2. Floating rate loan contract based on LPR.
For most people, the benchmark interest rate has begun to enter history.
However, as we all know, almost all our loans in the past were anchored by the benchmark interest rate. For example, the benchmark interest rate is 30% off, and the benchmark interest rate goes up 10%. ?
According to statistics, at the end of 20 18 alone, the national mortgage was 25.8 trillion. This is just a mortgage, and the entire stock loan is tens of billions. We should know that these tens of billions of stock loans are priced at the benchmark interest rate.
03
If the interest rate of stock loans is not anchored, you can imagine what will happen from 2020. On the one hand, all new loans are based on LPR.
On the other hand, there are tens of billions of stock loans anchored at the benchmark interest rate. Imagine that by 20021,the five-year interest rate of LPR will drop from the current 4.8% to 4.0%, while the benchmark interest rate will remain unchanged (it has remained unchanged since July 24, 200215), which is still 4.90%.
At this time, if Li Lei's mortgage is a stock loan, Han Meimei's mortgage is an LPR loan after 2020. This means that when Li Lei's benchmark interest rate does not rise or fall, and Han Meimei's LPR does not increase or decrease,
The same mortgage loan, just because the pricing anchor is different, the former has to pay 4.8% interest, while the latter only needs 4.0% interest.
Don't you think Li Lei will feel unfair? Won't you protest loudly and strongly?
As mentioned earlier, Li Lei is not a person, but an extremely large group behind tens of billions of stock loans.
04
Then, some students may ask, won't the opposite happen again? By 2022, LPR will still be 4.8%, while the benchmark interest rate has dropped to 4.0%.
Many people worry that after switching to LPR, the benchmark interest rate will fall more than LPR.
Hangzhou tourists can definitely answer, this situation is absolutely impossible. You can think of a very simple truth. After all the lenders converted the loan contract from the benchmark interest rate to LPR (or fixed interest rate) according to Yang Ma's instructions, Yang Ma quickly lowered the benchmark interest rate below LPR. Do you think Yang Ma dares to dig holes for so many students? Is foreign mother still a real mother? In addition, after 2020, all new loans will be fixed interest rates and LPR interest rates, and the benchmark interest rate will almost become history.
05
Then, some people will definitely have great doubts. Why did the benchmark interest rate that has been running in China for decades suddenly go into history? And where is this LPR that many people feel that they are not aware of? In fact, LPR was not born, but existed as early as 20 13.
At that time, the central bank announced that,
In order to further promote the marketization of interest rates, improve the benchmark interest rate system in the financial market and guide the pricing of products in the credit market, the centralized quotation and release mechanism of 10 loan benchmark interest rate (also known as loan market quotation rate, abbreviated as LPR) was officially put into operation.
The biggest difference between LPR and benchmark interest rate is that,
LPR is the market interest rate, while the benchmark interest rate is the official interest rate.
To understand, give an example that is not necessarily accurate. The rating and credit information of Binjiang Group are very good. In order to win this high-quality customer, various financial institutions have given them the most favorable interest rate quotations. Then, by summing and averaging the interest rate quotations of these banks, we can get the best interest rate for loans, which is LPR.
Therefore, LPR has a quotation bank group. There were only seven at first, but now it has been expanded to 18.
It can be simply understood that 18 vendors all sell cabbage, and each vendor has its own quotation for cabbage. Combining these quotations, we can get the market price of Chinese cabbage. This is similar to the LPR mechanism. So, what is the benchmark interest rate? That is, the state stipulates a cabbage price.
06
Do you understand that the inclusion of the benchmark interest rate in LPR is essentially to promote the marketization of interest rates more comprehensively and thoroughly? What are the advantages of doing so? For example. As we all know, the benchmark interest rate for five-year deposits is 2.75%, while the benchmark interest rate for loans with the same term is 4.90%. The bank has a spread of 2. 15%. Of course, the actual deposit and loan interest rates of banks will fluctuate according to the benchmark interest rate of the central bank. After the full implementation of LPR, the benchmark interest rate of the central bank is no longer the anchor reference for loans. Then, in order to compete for depositors' deposits, is it possible for banks to offer lower loan interest rates to increase their attractiveness?
Then, in the case that the loan interest rate is reduced and the deposit-loan spread is narrowed, should banks enhance their operating ability by improving management and other means?
The marketization of interest rates has actually promoted the marketization of financial institutions and even the entire financial system. The competition efficiency and resource allocation of the whole financial market will be improved.
Only in this way can China's financial market fully participate in and win the global competition. This is an important threshold for China to rise as a big country.
07
In a word, due to the rapid advancement of interest rate marketization in China, the market interest rate among commercial banks has been out of touch with the benchmark interest rate. The three-month SHIBOR (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate) has dropped from 2,065,438+4.33% at the end of May 2008 to 3.02 1% at present, while the loan interest rate of banks has hardly dropped, and commercial banks still rely on the benchmark interest rate to price loans. This has led to the serious problems of financing difficulties and expensive financing for SMEs. In other words, the interest rate of money raised by commercial banks is getting lower and lower, but the interest rate of foreign loans is still high. This is very unfavorable to the current economic stability and the country's solution to the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises. Yang Ma's full implementation of LPR is to reform the formation mechanism of loan interest rate, so that RRR interest rate cuts and interest rate cuts can be better transmitted and benefit the real economy.
08
Back to the real estate industry. In the last article, a classmate left a message-
[The original 30% discount, the benchmark interest rate is 4.9%, but it is actually 3.43%. Currently, the lpr is 4.8. If LPR falls to 1.37, the real interest rate will be 0. ]
Indeed, in the current stock of mortgage loans, a large number of discount rates such as 30% and 20% have appeared in the last batch of real estate rescue cycle.
These students will be the greater beneficiaries of the conversion to LPR. For example, according to the conversion mechanism announced by the central bank,
[The value-added of commercial personal housing loans should be equal to the difference between the latest interest rate of the original contract and the LPR issued in February 20 19].
With a 30% discount loan, the current real interest rate is 3.43%. If converted into LPR, it should be 4.80%-3.43%= 1.37%. In other words, the new LPR contract should be LPR minus 137 points.
Because it is a fixed discount point, the smaller the denominator value LPR, the greater the actual discount rate.
Simply calculated, when LPR was 3.74, the actual discount was already 0.5 fold, far less than the original benchmark interest rate of 0.7 fold. Theoretically, when LPR drops to 1.37%, your loan interest rate is already 0. Don't think that it seems impossible to reduce LPR to 1.37%. As long as we see zero and negative interest rates in Japan and western developed countries, we know that this day may not be too far away.