(Dong Xiangyi) Every move of the property market will affect people's hearts. Although the new policy of the central bank's mortgage interest rate has not yet been implemented, the news about the increase of mortgage interest rate in many areas is endless. Zhongxin Jingwei client noticed that Hangzhou, Suzhou, Wenzhou, Nanchang, Zhengzhou and other places recently raised mortgage interest rates. At the same time, news came out at the end of August that a number of banks have recently received guidance from the window to tighten the credit line for real estate development.
The data shows that in the first eight months of this year, the national real estate regulation and control policies reached 367 times, and the cumulative number of times set a new record for real estate regulation and control. In September, will the traditional property market "Golden September and Silver 10" arrive as scheduled? With the acceleration of LPR reform, the interest rate of personal housing mortgage will change greatly. What is the trend of house prices in the second half of the year? Will the personal mortgage interest rate drop? I believe these issues are of great concern to everyone.
Multi-site mortgage interest rate is raised
In the second half of the year, the mortgage interest rate entered a rebound stage. Although the performance of first-tier cities is relatively calm, the mortgage interest rates in many popular areas of second-tier cities have risen, and the interest rate of the first suite in some areas has even risen by 25%. Among them, Suzhou, Hangzhou and Changsha have accelerated the frequency adjustment. Recently, they have raised the mortgage interest rate more than once, and some banks have a tight quota and even suspended accepting mortgage business.
At present, the interest rate of individual housing loans in Beijing has not changed for the time being. A staff member of the Fuwai Street Business Office of CCB told the Zhongxin Jingwei client that CCB still implemented the first home loan interest rate hike 10% and the second home loan interest rate hike by 20%. "The central bank has just announced the marketization of interest rates, and during this period (personal mortgage interest rate) will definitely not be adjusted. It is hard to say whether it will be raised in the future. "
The Zhongxin Jingwei client combed the areas where the personal mortgage interest rate was recently adjusted:
Hangzhou: On the basis of the original increase of 5% to 8%, the interest rates of first home loans of many banks were further raised to 10%; The second suite rose to 15%. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, the price of new houses in Hangzhou rose by 0.5% month-on-month, and the price of second-hand houses rose by 0. 1% month-on-month, both of which declined.
Suzhou: Among the mortgage interest rates of 17 banks monitored by Rong 360, the first set of implementation benchmarks of 9 banks rose by 25%; The mainstream loan interest rate of the second suite will rise by 30% on the basis of the benchmark.
Wenzhou: According to Wenzhou. Com, the benchmark interest rate of the first home loan implemented by state-owned banks and some stock banks rose by 10%, an increase of 5.39%. The floating benchmark of the second suite is 15%, which is 5.635%. Although the mortgage interest rate is not the highest in three years, it is already the high point of this period. Even some banks began to suspend their mortgage business.
Nanchang: the interest rate of the first home loan generally rose by 20% to 5.88%; The interest rate of the second home loan generally rises by 25% to 30%. According to Jiangxi Daily, taking a 20-year loan with equal principal and interest of 6,543.8+0,000 yuan as an example, the total repayment amount of the benchmark interest rate of 4.9% is about 6,543.8+0.57 million yuan; The interest rate rises/kloc-0.5% to 5.635%, and the total repayment amount is about/kloc-0.669 million yuan; The interest rate rose by 20% to 5.88%, and the total repayment amount was about 6.5438+0.702 million yuan; The interest rate rose by 30% to 6.37%, and the total repayment amount was 1, 776,5438+0,000 yuan.
Zhengzhou: According to Zhengzhou Daily, most banks adjusted the interest rate of the first home loan to 20% according to the benchmark interest rate of 4.9%. Second-hand houses will rise at the benchmark interest rate 15% to 20%. This is the recent rebound after Zhengzhou's mortgage interest rate has been continuously lowered for about half a year.
It is worth mentioning that, although the new commercial lending regulations of the central bank have not been implemented, real estate agents in some areas have begun to fidget, and even constantly advocate that the benchmark mortgage interest rate is about to rise. For example, it was recently reported that "the benchmark interest rate of Ningbo mortgage will rise by 20% from 10 year15.5 on October 8, and finally reach 6.6." But it turned out to be false news.
According to the new regulations of LPR, the interest rate will change greatly.
On August 25, the central bank issued an announcement. From June 8th, 10, based on the pricing benchmark of the loan market quotation (LPR) in the same period of the last month, a new commercial personal housing loan interest rate will be formed. The interest rate of the first home loan shall not be lower than the LPR quotation in the same period, and the second home loan shall not be lower than the LPR quotation in the same period plus 60 basis points.
In the past, the personal mortgage interest rate fluctuated according to the benchmark loan interest rate announced by the central bank, which was the policy interest rate. The future personal mortgage interest rate should refer to the market interest rate.
Since LPR may change every month, the specific announcement time is 9: 30 on the 20th of each month, which is divided into 1 year and more than 5 years, and most mortgages are more than 5 years. The interest rate of the first home loan is not less than 4.85% based on the latest LPR published on August 20th. The second home loan interest rate is not less than 5.45%.
It is worth noting that this is the minimum requirement for national reunification. The central bank said that the provincial branches of the People's Bank of China should guide the self-discipline mechanism of interest rate pricing in the provincial market in accordance with the principle of "making policies according to the city", and determine the lower limit of the interest rate of the first and second sets of commercial personal housing loans within their jurisdiction on the basis of the unified national credit policy and the changes in the local real estate market situation. In other words, the branches of the central bank will set the lower limit of bonus points according to local conditions.
In addition, the interest rate policy for provident fund personal housing loans will not be adjusted for the time being. At present, the interest rate of provident fund loans for more than five years is 3.25%, and the interest rate of provident fund loans for less than five years is 2.75%, which is consistent throughout the country. Yan Yuejin, research director of the think tank center of Yiju Research Institute, believes that the temporary adjustment of the provident fund policy is a convenient and pragmatic embodiment of the current provident fund policy. It can not only ensure that the cost of just buying a house does not rise, but also keep the loan interest rate level stable.
Will the interest rate come down? How big is the impact on buying a house?
For property buyers, the floating interest rate of bank mortgage means that the cost of buying a house rises, the monthly payment increases after buying a house, and the repayment pressure also increases. The mortgage interest rate is inversely proportional to the house price. The higher the interest rate, the lower people's desire to buy a house, which further lowers the house price.
In the short term, the interest rate of bank mortgage will rise, and the house price will rise weakly, which will help curb over-investment in real estate. In the long run, if the bank mortgage interest rate keeps rising, the future house price can also remain stable or fall, which is good for the just-needed. On the whole, there are many factors that affect the trend of housing prices, such as population migration, local property market policy, currency depreciation and so on.
Many people are concerned about whether the personal mortgage interest rate will be generally raised. The industry believes that in the context of the regulation of "living without speculation", real estate regulation will not be relaxed, and real estate policy will be "based on the city". In the short term, most cities will not reduce the mortgage interest rate by raising the interest rate of the first and second sets of commercial personal housing loans within their jurisdiction.
Dong Ximiao, a distinguished researcher in the National Finance and Development Laboratory and vice president of Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China, believes that the interest rate of individual housing loans may rise in the future, but it will not be too large. Different banks have different positioning of personal housing loan business, and the investment of credit resources in different regions is also quite different, so there will be obvious differentiation in mortgage interest rates, while the adjustment of mortgage interest rates in large commercial banks is expected to be relatively moderate.
Personal mortgage policy or tightening
In the first half of the year, the real estate market in China ushered in a "small spring", and house prices in some areas rose rapidly. After the Politburo meeting reiterated that "housing is not speculation" and mentioned for the first time that "real estate is not a short-term means to stimulate the economy", the overheated real estate market quickly cooled down.
In view of the future supervision direction of housing-related loans, Dong Ximiao believes that from the perspective of real estate finance, future regulation may be implemented in three aspects: first, tightening bank credit funds to enter the real estate market, such as improving the conditions for real estate loans and reducing the loan amount; The second is to tighten funds to enter real estate projects through channels such as trusts, such as "window guidance" of real estate trusts; The third is to tighten the conditions and quotas of personal housing loans, raise the loan interest rate, and strictly control the illegal inflow of personal consumption loans and credit card funds into the real estate market. In addition, it is also possible to strictly control the issuance of corporate bonds by real estate enterprises.
Yan Yuejin told Zhongxin Jingwei client that the current real estate policy is tight-oriented, and the scale control of loans will remain strong. For some businesses involving real estate, or businesses that may involve real estate, relevant loans will also be strongly reviewed. Typically, subsequent similar credit card swiping and consumer loan issuance cannot be related to real estate business, otherwise it will be considered as a phenomenon with high loan risk.
Dong Ximiao believes that we should continue to implement differentiated housing credit policies, comprehensively use various means, combine quantity and price, and meet rigid demand and curb investment speculation through the adjustment of total quantity and price. Focus on the present, guide expectations, and implement the positioning of "housing and not speculating".
Supervision and strict investigation of mortgage loans
On August 29, according to the Securities Times, a number of banks recently received instructions from the window to tighten the amount of real estate development loans from now on. In principle, the scale of development loans should be controlled at the end of March 2065438+2009. This means that the balance of real estate development loans will be reduced from 1 1.04 trillion yuan at the end of the second quarter of this year to 10.85 trillion yuan at the end of the first quarter.
In addition, Ji Zhihong, vice president of CCB, also said at the 20 19 interim results conference that it is necessary to further strengthen the access standards for real estate development loans, ensure the compliant development of real estate development loans, and strengthen the supervision over the use of funds.
In fact, since the beginning of this year, the regulatory authorities have continuously tightened the real estate credit financing policy and taken measures from banks, trusts, bonds and other aspects to strictly control the illegal inflow of funds into real estate. Analysts believe that housing-related loans will remain the focus of future supervision.
On May 17, 2007, the CBRC issued "No.23 Document", which made detailed requirements for the rectification of real estate financing chaos in the field of commercial banks, including: personal comprehensive consumer loans, business loans, credit card overdrafts and other funds were misappropriated to buy houses; Funds illegally flow into the real estate market through shadow banking channels.
Recently, the China Banking Regulatory Commission (CBRC) announced a circular on the on-site inspection of small and medium-sized banks in some places. The circular pointed out that some local small and medium-sized banks illegally provide financing for real estate projects with complete "four certificates", and some institutions issue loans to real estate companies that have not obtained real estate development qualifications to pay compensation for demolition; In addition, illegal loans are issued to real estate projects with insufficient capital. The China Banking Regulatory Commission requires all relevant regulatory agencies to take targeted prudential regulatory measures and impose administrative penalties according to law.
With the development of "strong supervision", many commercial banks have been punished for "blood transfusion" of real estate in violation of regulations such as consumer loans and agricultural loans, involving a wide range. According to the statistics of the Economic Observer, by the end of July, in 2065,438+09, the CBRC and local branches of banking and insurance supervision issued nearly10.5 million tickets, involving 3 12 banks nationwide, and the total amount of fines exceeded 430 million yuan. Among them, there were as many as 1 15 cases involving "real estate enterprises" and "house payment", involving 50 banks including state-owned banks, stock banks, city commercial banks and rural credit cooperatives, with a cumulative fine of 47.29 million yuan.
At the same time, the central bank raised prices and tightened the tap of real estate loans. The central bank's monetary policy implementation report in the second quarter showed that the growth rate of real estate loans continued to decline. At the end of June, the balance of real estate loans of major financial institutions (including foreign capital) in China was 4 1.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 17. 1%, and the growth rate was 1.6 percentage points lower than that at the end of March.
Will housing prices fall if the record is set by regulation?
According to the statistics of Central Plains Real Estate Research Center, during the periods of October19 and August 1-8, the national real estate control policies reached 367 times, which was 17% higher than the 3 times in the period of October18. The cumulative number of times has set a new record for real estate regulation.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, believes that it is predicted that the national property market will still maintain two-way regulation in the second half of 20 19, and cities with stable housing prices will not rule out the introduction of easing policies, but as long as prices rise significantly, the real estate regulation will definitely increase. In addition, from the perspective of credit interest rate, it is not excluded that the interest rate for real estate will be raised again.
In Yan Yuejin's view, house prices will cool down slightly in the second half of the year, that is, they will fall under various price reduction promotions. But a similar decline will not be too big. With the realization of the sales performance of subsequent real estate enterprises, it is expected that the price reduction will continue to decrease and then rise again. (Zhongxin Jingwei APP)
(The views in this article are for reference only and do not constitute investment advice. Investment is risky, so be cautious when entering the market. )