I made a statement at the beginning of the year.
It is worth noting that on June 65438+1October 16 this year, Zou Lan, director of the financial market department of the central bank, said that it was necessary to continue to strictly control the proportion of real estate in new credit resources.
Zheng learned that in recent years, banks have been limiting the proportion of new loans related to housing. Although there is no explicit provision, all banks basically abide by this provision.
The housing credit of listed banks mainly consists of two parts, namely, housing mortgage loan and real estate loan in corporate business, the latter is commonly known as "development loan". The mid-year report of listed banks in 2020 shows that among the six major state-owned banks, the proportion of new housing-related loans decreased compared with the end of 20 19, and only the Bank of China accounted for more than 30% of new housing-related loans.
Although some joint-stock banks increased housing-related loans by more than 30% in the first half of the year, due to the small overall scale, the impact on industry financing may be limited.
The above-mentioned joint-stock bankers pointed out that the overall attitude of supervision towards real estate financing is "steady and tight", and banks implement quota management for financing of wide-caliber real estate loans, and the growth rate and incremental proportion are controlled and included in MPA assessment. Including but not limited to suspending the issuance of perpetual bonds, continuously reducing existing bonds at maturity, and strictly controlling the flow of credit funds to real estate by bypassing the construction industry or other industries.
A large number of mortgage loans
"Spring River Plumbing Duck Prophet", the real estate agent in large and medium-sized cities is the most sensitive group to bank loans. Zheng inquired about real estate agents in Beijing and Shanghai, and it was generally reflected that the local government has not sent out the information of mortgage tightening at present, but near the end of the year, it is not excluded that some areas with tight quotas will take longer to lend money.
In Beijing, due to strict credit leverage restrictions, the total amount of loans that customers can get from banks is very limited. Perhaps affected by this year's epidemic, major banks have increased their credit support for eligible buyers. Since the beginning of this year, the time for bank lending, especially commercial loans, has been significantly shortened. Overall, the quota is sufficient.
A senior intermediary in Beijing told Zhongzhengjun that the bank mortgage quota was sufficient this year. Judging from the previous lending situation, this year's commercial loan list is generally issued two or three days after the end of the household, which is particularly fast. Normally, it should be 1 month. He also believes that according to the current progress, the card quota phenomenon that appeared at the end of each year is unlikely to appear this year.
An intermediary in Shanghai told Zheng Zhengjun that from what they know, the amount of mortgage in Shanghai this year is relatively sufficient, but near the end of the year, there may be a situation that the loan time will become longer, but it should not be the card amount.
Short-term stress may be exaggerated.
Affected by the "three red lines" of financing and the exposure of some housing enterprises, all sectors of society pay close attention to real estate financing. In fact, judging from the recent financing situation, the financing of housing enterprises has not been greatly affected. Although the cost has increased recently, it is still at a low level for some time.
In recent years, a trend is that the financing of large and medium-sized housing enterprises is increasingly dependent on issuing bonds. From the situation of issuing bonds, we can see the financing difficulty and cost of housing enterprises.
According to the statistics of RealData, in the third quarter of 2020, domestic and foreign bonds were issued 307 times, and the financing scale was about 324.7 billion yuan, up 14% year-on-year, and the scale of bond issuance set a new record. RealData believes that in the second half of the year, the regulatory authorities have repeatedly released signals of regulatory upgrading and financial tightening. As a tight transition period, the scale of debt issuance remained high in the third quarter, and it is expected that the growth rate will decline in the fourth quarter.
Judging from the structure of the third quarter, the scale of bond issuance declined in August and September, and the decline gradually expanded, and the impact of financing supervision has initially appeared. It is expected that the financing scale in the fourth quarter will maintain a high probability of a month-on-month decline, so it will further increase the pressure on the sales side of housing enterprises. In order to hit the annual target, real estate enterprises seize the Mid-Autumn Festival and the 11-day holiday market, or adopt more promotion policies to hedge the pressure on the financing side with money back.
From the perspective of coupon rate, domestic and foreign financing interest rates rose in the third quarter. Different from the downward trend of financing interest rate in the first half of the year, coupon rate at home and abroad rose sharply in the third quarter, but remained at a low level for a long time. The financing environment is tightening, and the financing demand of housing enterprises is high, which has boosted the bond interest rate and the window of low financing interest rate has passed. It is expected that the financing interest rate will keep increasing in the fourth quarter.
Judging from the issuance period, the issuance period of domestic and foreign bond financing in the third quarter was relatively stable, with slight fluctuations. The issuance period of domestic bonds has increased slightly, maintaining an upward trend; Overseas, the bond issuance period has been slightly shortened, and the external environment is uncertain. In the fourth quarter, the proportion of short-term and medium-term debt in the overseas bond market may increase significantly.
Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Zhongyuan Real Estate, said, first of all, from the current actual implementation, the financing difficulty of housing enterprises is at the lowest level in history, and the average financing profit is also very low. The average financing cost in coupon rate is around 4%-5%, far lower than the 6%-8% in the same period last year. Secondly, housing enterprises should pay close attention to financing and avoid policy changes. From the financing of housing enterprises, more and more attention is paid to domestic financing. Third, on the whole, domestic real estate sales have eased, and sales of most enterprises have increased, but housing enterprises are still financing as much as possible. In order to cope with possible market changes, most housing enterprises speed up the reserve of funds. For enterprises with high leverage ratio, the financing pressure has increased recently, but there are also countermeasures, such as strengthening sales and speeding up payment.