10 6 17, the People's Bank of China announced that in order to maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity in the banking system, the People's Bank of China launched a 500 billion yuan medium-term loan facility (MLF) operation and a 2 billion yuan open market reverse repurchase operation to fully meet the needs of financial institutions. As the MLF expires 500 billion yuan this month, and the interest rate of MLF this month is the same as that of last month, the MLF operation in 10 month has changed from the contraction parity last month to the equal parity continuation.

Experts said that the continuation of MLF equivalent parity in June 5438+ 10 shows that under the comprehensive consideration of internal and external factors, the current central bank will neither significantly tighten liquidity nor excessively support liquidity at the quantitative level. At present, the market is full of liquidity, and it is unlikely that the quoted interest rate (LPR) of the loan market will decline in June 5438+ 10, but the possibility of a separate decline in LPR for more than five years cannot be ruled out. Considering the internal and external balance, the central bank will maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity through refined reverse repurchase and MLF operations and structural monetary policy tools.

MLF interest rate remains unchanged.

Give consideration to stable growth and stable exchange rate.

10 In the current month, the People's Bank of China kept the MLF interest rate unchanged at 2.75%.

Since the People's Bank of China lowered the MLF interest rate 10 basis point in August, it is generally expected that the MLF interest rate will not be adjusted in the short term. According to the financial statistics in September, new RMB loans increased by 8 108 billion yuan year-on-year, and the incremental scale of social financing increased by 624.5 billion yuan year-on-year, achieving an unexpected rebound. In September, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of manufacturing industry also reached 50. 1%, rising to the expansion range. A series of economic data reflect that the financing demand of the real economy continues to pick up, and the economic operation keeps picking up.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, pointed out that, first of all, historical laws show that when the economy turns to a more obvious upward stage of stabilization, the possibility of policy interest rate cuts is usually low. Secondly, the US dollar index has soared recently, and the RMB has rapidly and passively depreciated against the US dollar. Although the risk of RMB exchange rate rapidly depreciating from the US dollar can be controlled, stabilizing the foreign exchange market has received further attention on the macro-policy agenda. At present, in the process of violent turmoil in the global foreign exchange market, maintaining the stability of China's policy interest rate is helpful to balance the internal and external macroeconomic policies and enhance the resilience of the RMB exchange rate.

Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, also said that the expectation that the Federal Reserve and major overseas central banks will continue to raise interest rates substantially has not changed, putting pressure on the exchange rate. While the Fed's interest rate hike momentum is still strong and overseas countries are following suit, further easing of domestic monetary policy may aggravate the short-term fluctuation of exchange rate again. At present, the importance of stabilizing the exchange rate is still high, which restricts the loose space of domestic monetary policy to some extent.

Terminal contraction operation

The central bank is careful to maintain liquidity.

While maintaining the interest rate unchanged, the central bank ended the contraction operation of MLF, which is seen by many experts as a positive measure for the central bank to maintain a reasonable and abundant liquidity.

In the previous two months, the central bank continuously carried out MLF table reduction operations. In Wang Qing's view, this shows that the attitude of the central bank is still to avoid excess market liquidity, curb idle arbitrage of funds, and guide banks to increase credit supply to the real economy.

With the end of the cross-month and cross-season disturbance of funds, Wen Bin said that the impact of 5,438+00 funds in June mainly came from the fiscal tax payment and the supply of national debt, and the overall liquidity would be better than that in September, with no obvious pressure. In this context, MLF's equal continuation is in line with the original intention of the central bank to guide the interest rate of funds to gradually return to the policy interest rate.

He also said that under the circumstance that there is little linkage between the primary interest rate and the secondary interest rate in the money market, the demand of primary dealers for reverse repurchase and MLF operations has declined. At present, the bank's capital utilization and spread pressure are greater, and it is more sensitive to high-cost liabilities, and MLF with lower cost performance is also in line with market choices.

Wang Qing believes that the financial statistics rebounded more than expected in September, and the previous steady growth policy will take effect in the fourth quarter. It is expected that bank loans will maintain a year-on-year growth momentum in the fourth quarter. On June 5438+ 10, MLF stopped its contraction operation, which helped to keep liquidity in the banking system at a relatively abundant level and supported commercial banks to continuously increase loan lending in the fourth quarter.

Subsequent LPR or asymmetric downregulation

10 MLF interest rate remains unchanged, which means that the pricing basis of the subsequent new round of LPR has not changed. Many experts pointed out that the current market liquidity is sufficient, and the possibility of LPR quotation falling in June 5438+ 10 is low, but the possibility of LPR quotation falling alone for more than 5 years is not ruled out.

Wen Bin believes that, considering the current market liquidity is sufficient, there is no need to release the RRR cut in the short term. Considering the internal and external balance, the central bank will maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity through refined reverse repurchase and MLF operations and structural monetary policy tools.

The third regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China held at the end of September also pointed out that we should continue to "overweight" structural monetary policy tools and strengthen support for key areas, weak links and industries affected by the epidemic.

Wang Qing believes that considering that the current property market is still in a downturn and the growth rate of residential mortgages continues to be less than that of the same period last year,10 On June 20, the quotation bank may lower the LPR quotation for more than five years. Recently, corporate loans have increased rapidly, and it is expected that the quotation of 1 year LPR will remain stable. This will guide the residential mortgage interest rate to fall more sharply in the fourth quarter, and also help to control the narrowing of the bank's net interest margin.

Wen Bin said that if the subsequent recovery of residents' demand continues to be weak, in order to reduce the loan burden, reduce the willingness to save and boost the willingness to consume, under the condition that the policy interest rate remains unchanged, it is still possible for banks to continue to reduce the LPR for more than five years by profiting from previous mortgage loans.