It may trigger a default of $234 billion in credit default swap transactions. According to relevant research, the credit default swap market is the most likely market with problems. In May 2008, Buffett said: "According to my definition, the American economy has fallen into recession." One worrying area is the $60 trillion credit default swap market. According to the research results, Lei Yao, a researcher in the international financial market of the People's Bank of China, pointed out that "according to the development trend of the current subprime mortgage crisis, the CDS market with a valuation of about 62 trillion US dollars has become a' barrier lake' in the current financial market". "With the deterioration of the quality of credit assets in major European and American countries, the decline of the real economy, the credit crunch and the continued turmoil in the financial market, the risk coefficient of the credit derivatives market will inevitably rise. Among them, traders' credit risk has become the primary weak link that may lead to systemic risk, which needs close attention, and it is necessary to guard against the adverse consequences such as bond price decline and further credit tightening that may be caused by the outbreak of systemic risk. In addition, institutional investors represented by hedge funds may have liquidity risks, and the operational risks caused by the failure of complex pricing models also need to be given some attention. " He believes that the credit crunch risk caused by CDS market problems may be faster than the "Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac incident", which will exert continuous pressure on China's exports through shrinking consumption.

It should be noted that the figure of $62 trillion only includes the data reported by commercial banks to the Federal Reserve, and does not include the data of investment banks and hedge funds. According to statistics, only hedge funds have issued 3 1% credit default swap contracts; On the other hand, credit default swaps are completely over-the-counter transactions without any government supervision.

The largest part of the CDS market is corporate bonds (including ABS), accounting for 80% and MBS accounting for 20%. In the state of economic recession, the default rate of corporate bonds will rapidly climb from 4.87% to more than 10%. Based on the loss recovery rate of 50%, CDS will cause direct losses of 1 trillion dollars in the coming months. However, some domestic financial institutions have purchased such derivatives, which is worthy of vigilance.