In view of the negative effects of the financial crisis, such as economic contraction and unemployment increase, there are mainly the following policy measures. It should be said that these policies and measures are related to national macroeconomic goals such as economic growth, inflation, unemployment and balance of payments, and will have a positive impact:
These are the main fiscal policies.
(1) loose fiscal policy: tax reduction (reduction and exemption of securities transaction tax and cancellation of interest tax have been implemented) and expansion of government expenditure (4 trillion to stimulate domestic demand is being implemented);
(2) Promoting foreign trade: the import and export industry bears the brunt, with a large number of employees (according to statistics, it has reached 1 100 million). First, increase the export tax rebate; Second, RMB appreciation is a means to increase export competitiveness;
(3) Reduce the burden on enterprises: adjust the labor law, etc.
(4) Strengthen public expenditure on social security/medical care, and maintain the stability of social and economic development environment.
(5) Industrial revitalization planning.
The following is monetary policy.
(1) Since July 2008, the monetary policy has been substantially adjusted in a timely manner. Reduce the impact of the open market, stop issuing 3-year central bank bills, reduce the frequency of issuing 1 year and 3-month central bank bills, guide the interest rate of central bank bills to decline appropriately, and ensure liquidity supply.
(2) loose monetary policy. In 65438+1October,165438+1October and 65438+February, the benchmark interest rate, the deposit reserve ratio and the benchmark loan interest rate were lowered continuously, with the aim of increasing the money supply in the market and expanding investment and consumption.
(3) On1October 27th, 2008, 10, a 30% discount on the interest rate of the first home loan was also implemented; Support residents to purchase ordinary self-occupied housing and improved ordinary housing for the first time.
(4) The restrictions on the credit planning of commercial banks have been cancelled.
(5) Insist on differential treatment, maintain pressure, and encourage financial institutions to increase loans for reconstruction of disaster areas, "agriculture, rural areas and farmers" and small and medium-sized enterprises.
(6) Promoting foreign trade: the import and export industry bears the brunt, with many employees (according to statistics, it has reached 1 100 million). First, increase the export tax rebate; Second, RMB appreciation is a means to increase export competitiveness;
(7) Foreign economic cooperation and coordination (such as currency swap among China, Japan and South Korea). ).
Second, talk about your views on the US subprime mortgage crisis in 2008.
The direct cause of the US subprime mortgage market storm is the rising interest rate in the United States and the continuous cooling of the housing market. The rise in interest rates has led to an increase in repayment pressure. Many users with bad credit feel that the repayment pressure is high, and there is the possibility of default, which has an impact on the recovery of bank loans and has a serious impact on many countries around the world, including China. Some scholars have pointed out that "the United States, which technically should have gone bankrupt a long time ago, owes too much to other countries in the world, and creditor countries do not want to see the United States go bankrupt, so they can not only abandon American treasury bonds, but even continue to subscribe for more American bonds to ensure that the United States does not go bankrupt" [1]
In America, loans are a very common phenomenon. Locals rarely buy a house in full, usually with long-term loans. But unemployment and reemployment are very common phenomena here. These people with unstable income or even no income at all are defined as subprime lenders because their credit ratings are not up to standard.
Because the house price was high before, the bank thought that although the loan was given to the subprime borrower, if the borrower could not afford the loan, he could use the mortgaged house to repay it, auction or sell it to recover the bank loan. However, due to the sudden drop in house prices, when the borrower was unable to repay, the bank sold the house, only to find that the funds obtained could not make up for the loan interest at that time, or even the loan amount itself, so the bank would lose money on this loan.
It is ok for one borrower and two borrowers to have such problems, but due to the rising interest rate of installment payment and the fact that these borrowers themselves are subprime credit lenders, a large number of borrowers are unable to repay their loans. As mentioned above, the bank repossessed the house, but failed to sell it at a high price, which led to a large-scale loss and triggered the subprime mortgage crisis.
The American subprime mortgage market usually adopts a combination of fixed interest rate and floating interest rate, that is, buyers repay their loans at a fixed interest rate in the first few years after buying a house, and then at a floating interest rate.
In the five years before 2006, due to the continuous prosperity of the US housing market and the low interest rates in previous years, the US subprime mortgage market developed rapidly.
With the cooling of American housing market, especially the increase of short-term interest rate, the repayment rate of subprime loans has also increased significantly, and the repayment burden of buyers has increased greatly. At the same time, the continuous cooling of the housing market also makes it difficult for buyers to sell their houses or refinance through mortgaged houses. This situation directly leads to a large number of subprime borrowers unable to repay on time, which in turn leads to "subprime mortgage crisis".
3. What was the cause of the subprime mortgage crisis in 2008?
Reason: 1, the blind reduction of loan conditions and vicious competition among lending institutions planted the seeds of the crisis. In order to continuously expand market share in the fierce competition, many lending institutions have lowered the credit threshold for all borrowers. Many lending institutions began to provide subprime mortgages to borrowers with low credit ratings. Driven by interests, some subprime mortgage companies began to expand credit more actively, and even introduced loan methods such as "zero down payment" and "zero documents". 2. After the expansion of the real estate market continues to cool down, it is difficult for buyers to sell their houses or obtain new financing through mortgage loans. Since the economic downturn in the United States in 2000, the Bush administration has encouraged people to buy houses through low interest rates and tax cuts, which has gradually triggered a wave of asset market rise dominated by housing prices. From 2000 to 2006, American house prices rose by 80%, a record high. However, since 2006, the American real estate market has gradually shown signs of cooling, and house prices have continued to fall. When the real estate price rises, lenders and borrowers think that if it is difficult to repay the loan, the borrower only needs to sell the house or re-mortgage the loan. But in fact, once the whole housing market is expected to cut prices, it will be difficult for borrowers to sell their own houses, and house prices may fall to the point where they are not enough to repay the remaining loans. Once overdue payments and foreclosures increase significantly, the subprime mortgage market may be severely impacted, affecting the entire mortgage market. 3. Continued interest rate hikes have increased the repayment burden of buyers. After the American recession, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates sharply, which made consumers want to borrow. However, from June 2004 to June 2006, the Fed raised interest rates 17 times in a row, and the benchmark interest rate was adjusted from 1% to 5.25%. Affected by this, the interest rate of subprime mortgage loans, mainly floating interest rates, continues to rise, the repayment burden of borrowers gradually increases, and the repayment pressure increases rapidly. In the case of excessive burden, a large number of violations have occurred. . 4. The innovation of high-risk mortgage products contributed to the real estate bubble. When American subprime mortgage was launched in 2003, it was considered as a great financial innovation, because it realized the dream of people who did not have enough financial resources to buy a house and had poor credit. Driven by the "innovative spirit" of many subprime mortgage companies, various new mortgage products have sprung up like mushrooms after rain. The common feature of these loans is to reduce the loan interest rate at the beginning of the loan. Generally speaking, in the first few years of repayment, the monthly mortgage repayment amount is very low and fixed. After a period of time, the repayment pressure increased sharply.
4. What are the causes and consequences of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States in 2008?
The excessively loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is one of the root causes of the crisis. According to the data compiled by Jin Shi, since the beginning of 2006, the Federal Reserve has continuously cut interest rates 13 times, 5438+0, the federal funds rate has dropped from the initial 6.5% to 1%, and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage contract interest rate (that is, the mortgage interest rate in the United States) has also dropped from 8.52% in May 2000 to 5% in March 2004. Due to policy pressure, financial institutions that refuse to provide housing loans to low-income people may be accused of discrimination and fined, usually amounting to millions of dollars; Because house prices have been rising, as collateral, even if there is a default, banks can auction collateral to control risks.
Secondly, for the sake of economy, the then Bush administration put forward a new "American Dream" plan-every American should have a home. However, under the situation that the demand of the wealthy class in the United States is basically saturated, the American government can only turn its attention to people with low credit ratings and pass legislation to require financial institutions to issue loans to the poor, which has led to the emergence of a large number of subprime loans. Sell loan assets to the market in the form of loan asset securitization, mortgage-backed securities and CDO. Liquidity can be obtained, and some related RMBS can also be transferred to the capital market.
Third, most financial institutions that issue subprime loans in the United States are mortgage companies, and fierce market competition has continuously lowered the credit threshold of borrowers. The price increase from 2000 to 2007 greatly exceeded the long-term growth trend in the past 30 years. In June, 2006, the house price in American 10 big cities increased by 2.9 times compared with a decade ago. From 20001to the end of 2006, the scale of mortgage loans increased by $407 billion to $2,520 billion, and the scale of subprime loans issued by the top 25 subprime lending institutions in the United States accounted for more than 90% of the total subprime loans.
The bubble burst. Mortgage institutions suffered the most losses, and hedge funds suffered huge losses. Lehman Brothers, a world-famous investment bank, went bankrupt, Merrill Lynch was acquired, and commercial bank giant RBS and other large European banks were nationalized one after another. Financial institutions such as insurance and funds, as participants in subprime loans, have also been greatly affected. For example, AIG's assets and liabilities were seriously unbalanced and eventually taken over by the US government. The stock market plummeted, people lost money, and the number of people who could not pay their mortgages continued to increase?
In the end, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in an all-round way and quickly spread into an international financial crisis, the severity of which can be called "once in a hundred years".
Reflecting on the crisis, the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is the biggest real estate crisis in history, sweeping the world. The reason why it spreads so widely is mainly because American housing loan assets come from investment banks and are sold to global investors. This financial innovation has unprecedentedly linked the American real estate market with the global financial market.
The collapse of Lehman Brothers has dealt a heavy blow to the American financial system and the American economy. The trillion-dollar financial bubble burst, the wealth of millions of Americans vanished overnight, the real estate price plummeted, and the total profit loss of Wall Street in that year exceeded 1000 billion dollars.
Source? Golden ten data? Go to Fortune College?