Long Wen, who laughs at Daya Bay's blood loss, is the epitome of Shenzhen investors. Although the data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that housing prices in Huizhou have risen, the problem that Huiyang Daya Bay is difficult to change hands has not changed, and the situation of "having a price but no market" has plunged investors into it.

Daya Bay and Huiyang are the most famous areas in Shenzhen. The controversy is not only because of Daya Bay Nuclear Power Station (actually located in Dapeng, Shenzhen), but also because of the title of "ghost town".

Following the restrictions on purchases in Shenzhen and Dongguan, the property market here has also begun to "restrict purchases". "Newly purchased houses have been sold for three years, and key areas (Huiyang and Daya Bay) have suspended the sale of new commercial housing to non-local residents with 1 set or above houses in the region." After being interviewed by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development 1 1 days later, Huizhou unexpectedly followed up the regulation and chose to purchase in Huiyang Daya Bay.

Market participants said that judging from the strength of the purchase restriction policy, it is a bit "scratching one's boots" not to include Huicheng District and Zhong Kai High-tech Zone, which are hot transactions, in key areas. There is also an interpretation in the industry. After half a year, there will be a price limit force. When the tide recedes, you will know who is swimming naked.

Is Huizhou New Deal Precise Regulation or Edge Ball?

Huizhou officially entered the "era of restricted purchases", which originated from this document released by beginning of autumn on the third day.

At 0: 00 on August 9, Huizhou Housing and Construction Bureau and other six departments issued the "Notice on Further Promoting the Stable and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Market in Our City", and the Huizhou property market regulated the New Deal boots.

The key contents mainly include: in terms of purchase restriction, the key areas will suspend the sale of newly-built commercial housing to non-local residents who own/kloc-0 or more houses in the region. In terms of price, strengthen the management of pre-sale and price filing of new commercial housing; In terms of land, establish and improve the linkage mechanism of housing price and land price, optimize the rules of land auction, and implement the transfer methods such as "limiting housing price, limiting land price, competing for construction and competing for quality";

"In addition, other policies are statements and have no substantive content." Li, chief researcher of Guangdong Housing Policy Research Center, revealed that Huizhou may introduce more heavy policies. Huizhou's property market demand is heavily dependent on the spillover from Shenzhen, and this new policy is the limit that Huizhou can do.

It is worth noting that this is the first time since Huizhou's regulatory history that it has proposed to restrict the purchase of "key areas" in Linshen, and clearly defined "non-Huizhou household registration". In the explanation of some clauses in the policy interpretation, Huizhou specifically mentioned that "key areas" refer to "Daya Bay Economic and Technological Development Zone and Huiyang District".

However, at present, the sales volume of new houses in Daya Bay in Huiyang is not in the forefront of Huizhou. According to the data of Leyoujia Research Center, in July, the proportion of online signing in Huicheng District was 24. 1%, ranking first; Zhong Kai District accounts for 23.4%, ranking second; Boluo County accounts for 17.2%, ranking third.

As Huicheng District and Zhong Kai High-tech Zone are not included in the key restricted areas, they are also considered by the market as "scratching their boots".

In this regard, He Qianru, director of Midland Property National Research Center, pointed out that Huizhou property market bears a large amount of spillover demand in Shenzhen. After Daya Bay and Huiyang implement the purchase restriction, it is expected that the local property market will be much cleaner.

"In fact, the deeper purpose of Huizhou's policy is to accurately crack down on hot money overflowing from Shenzhen." Lin Boli, a senior industry insider, commented that it seems reasonable to say that "key areas" include Daya Bay and Huiyang District, which are closest to Shenzhen, but Huicheng District, the central area, does not.

"I would rather have a bed in Shenzhen than a sea view room in Daya Bay."

It is worth noting that the "three-year fixed sale" required by the Notice has been implemented since 20 17, which is not a new policy. This document only emphasizes "strict implementation", not extending the sales restriction period.

But this still means that the investment auction will be held for at least 5-8 years. The future second-hand housing market, whether it is inventory pressure or holding cost, is not small.

According to Chen Honghai, general manager of E-House Ke Rui, the second-hand housing market in Huizhou has always been dull, and the second-hand housing market needs to hold a real estate license for three years, which has little impact in the short term, but it is also a necessary patching measure to regulate the market.

In this regard, investor Long Wen also felt, "Daya Bay house wants to sell within three years, and it is difficult to go to the sky."

Because Daya Bay is not limited to purchase, there are many behind-the-scenes promoters of real estate speculation behind the previous housing price increase. However, Zhixun Finance visited Huizhou Daya Bay and found that due to the huge proportion of investment-oriented housing, except for a few relatively mature large-sized housing, the occupancy rate of a considerable number of buildings in Daya Bay is less than 30%, and the vacancy rate is still at a high level.

Daya Bay is close to Shenzhen, which is one of the biggest advantages that Long Wen sees. In addition, in recent years, with the blessing of Greater Bay Area and the concept of "Greater Shenzhen Metropolitan Area", more and more "Guangdong B" cars began to flood into Daya Bay, Huizhou, a city close to Shenzhen. According to the data of Leyoujia, among Huizhou buyers in the first half of 200212002, Shenzhen customers accounted for more than 50%, while Huizhou local buyers only accounted for about 20%.

According to the statistics of Leyoujia, an intermediary agency, the proportion of Shenzhen customers investing in Daya Bay District is as high as 33%, ranking first. Although it takes only 265,438+0 minutes to take the high-speed train from Shenzhen North Station to Huizhou South Station in Daya Bay, the commuting time on the waiting road is very high, and driving to and from Shenzhen is always rumored to be a slot in the planning of many buyers. Most foreign investors buy expectations and don't live in their own homes. It is inevitable that you will fall into the dilemma of renting a house, living by yourself and wanting to change hands.

Many people have the plot that "bloom faces the sea in warm spring", and the Daya Bay sea view room with mountains and seas has been dubbed as "poison beauty" by professional investors, which also makes some investors feel that they would rather have a bed in Shenzhen than a Daya Bay sea view room.

Statistics from Leyoujia show that in July, online signing in all districts showed a downward trend, with 897 sets of online signing in Daya Bay, up 49.09% month-on-month, with the biggest decline in Huizhou.

"Huizhou second-hand housing transactions are too difficult to change hands." David, a senior real estate consultant, also pointed out that Huizhou's purchase restriction policy is quite good now. At least, avoiding the pit does not hurt the buyer so much, and it can only hurt once.

Ye Chen, a 32-year-old Huizhou agent, told Zhixun Finance that although some second-hand houses can be sold at the original price, the evaluation price may not be evaluated according to the actual selling price, and buyers' loans will be restricted. In the case of a small price difference, customers are still more willing to buy a new house.

Industry: Huizhou was forced to bid farewell to the dependence of the property market after the purchase restriction.

Different from Shenzhen and Dongguan property markets, Huizhou market is well supplied and there is a certain inventory pressure. According to institutional data, in the first half of 20021,the chemical removal cycle of Shenwanhui was the longest in Huizhou, reaching 15 months. Judging from the transaction price, the average price of first-hand residential buildings in Huizhou maintained a steady and slight upward trend in the first half of the year, and the average price was close to12,000 yuan /m2. 202 1 64,228 sets were sold in Huizhou in the first half of the year, down 15.7% year-on-year.

In terms of land market, according to industry statistics, in the first half of this year, there were frequent "land kings" in 39 cases of land listed for sale in Huizhou, and the floor prices of individual plots were as high as 9 1, 6 1 yuan/m2. At present, in addition to the core area, the house price in Huizhou is generally around 9,000 yuan/m 2.

At the same time, the land price in Huizhou has also hit record highs, but the market transaction is not optimistic. For this phenomenon, Li analyzed that it is related to the unique property of Huizhou property market, because the demand of Huizhou property market depends largely on Shenzhen spillover. At present, affected by the downturn in Shenzhen property market, Huizhou property market is in a downward cycle, and the rise in house prices is only a structural factor.

"In addition, the current mortgage interest rate in Huizhou has risen to a very high level, with the interest rate of the first suite being 6.82% and the interest rate of the second suite being 7.2%. Moreover, the lending cycle of new houses and second-hand houses is very long. " Li judged that after the purchase restriction landed, the future Huizhou property market will start the downward process, forcing Huizhou to bid farewell to the property market dependence.

Some investors ridiculed that "a city that is not limited to purchase is not a good city." When it comes to whether more cities in Greater Bay Area will join the regulation, many people in the industry think that the regulation will never end.

Note: Wen and are pseudonyms.