June 5438- 10, the real estate policy environment continued to be tight and stable. At the central level, following the meeting of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee in the third quarter and the symposium on real estate finance in September, high-level officials continued to speak intensively this month, and the orientation of "maintaining stability" in the property market was clear. Pan, deputy governor of the central bank and director of SAFE, once again said that in the next step, the financial sector will actively cooperate with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development and local governments to firmly safeguard the healthy development of the real estate market and safeguard the legitimate rights and interests of housing consumers. At the same time, the 13th the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) officially authorized the State Council to carry out pilot projects in real estate tax reform in some areas to further improve the long-term real estate mechanism and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market.
At the local level, the number of local real estate control policies was basically the same as last month, but the proportion of tightening policies further dropped from 50% last month to 44%, and the tightening trend of local real estate policies continued to slow down. Judging from the means of regulation, the austerity policy mainly focuses on standardizing the transactions in the real estate market, rectifying the order of the real estate market, and strengthening the supervision of housing enterprises' funds. The number of cities that have introduced administrative measures such as "restricting purchases, sales, loans and prices" has decreased significantly compared with before. In terms of policy easing, in addition to relying on the introduction of talents and relaxing settlement, Harbin, Hunan and other places have successively introduced housing subsidy policies, and Dongguan, Huizhou, Jiangmen and Zhaoqing have successively reduced personal income tax and land value-added tax on the transfer of second-hand houses to ease the decline of the property market. This report mainly sorts out and analyzes the policies of the real estate industry in June 5438- 10.
Second, the central policy: firmly safeguard the healthy development of the real estate market and meet the reasonable capital demand of the real estate industry.
? 1. Policy Tracking
2. Policy summary and explanation of key policies
(1) policy summary
Monetary policy remained stable this month. On the one hand, at the end of 10, the central bank carried out large-scale reverse repurchase operations for several consecutive days, and the net investment for the whole month was160 billion yuan, which was higher than that in September. In terms of social financing scale, according to the forecast data of CITIC Securities Research Department, it is predicted that the growth rate of social financing scale in China will stop falling and stabilize in June 5438+ 10. It is estimated that RMB loans will increase by 0.7 trillion yuan, social financing will increase by 1.33 trillion yuan, the growth rate of social financing will remain at around 10.0%, and the growth rate of M2 will remain at around 8.3%. The credit market has generally maintained a "stable and tight" state. On the other hand, MLF's bid winning interest rate, reverse repurchase operating interest rate and LPR interest rate remain unchanged, maintaining the continuity and stability of monetary policy.
In terms of real estate regulation, this month, the central bank further clarified the orientation of "maintaining stability" in the property market. Specifically, on June 5438+1October 18, the central bank said at the press conference of financial statistics in the third quarter of 20021that the risk appetite of financial institutions for the real estate industry has dropped significantly recently, and there has been a consistent contraction behavior, which belongs to the short-term overreaction of the market. Some financial institutions also have some misunderstandings about the financing management rules of "three lines and four files". All major banks should accurately grasp and implement the prudent management system of real estate finance, maintain the smooth and orderly delivery of real estate credit, and maintain the healthy development of the real estate market. At the subsequent press conference on the national economy in the first three quarters of 20021and the annual meeting of 20021Financial Street Forum, the heads of relevant government departments also expressed their views. At present, the risk of the real estate market is generally controllable, the financing behavior of housing enterprises and the price of financial market are gradually returning to normal, and the steady and healthy development of the real estate market will not change in the future. At the same time, the 13th the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) authorized the State Council to carry out the pilot work of real estate tax reform in some areas and further improve the long-term mechanism of real estate, which will help to curb speculative demand for real estate and maintain the stability of housing prices and the real estate market. In addition, this month, the central government also issued specific guiding opinions on promoting the development of green buildings, popularizing the experience in the renovation of old residential areas, and managing super high-rise buildings.
(2) Interpretation of key policies: The 13th the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) authorized the State Council to carry out the pilot project in real estate tax reform.
20211KLOC-0/On October 23rd, the 31st session of the Standing Committee of the 13th NPC made a decision to authorize the State Council to carry out the pilot project of real estate tax reform in some areas. According to the contents of the meeting:
First, the property tax in the pilot area is levied on all kinds of real estate such as residential and non-residential, excluding rural homesteads and houses owned by them according to law. Land use rights holders and house owners are taxpayers of property tax. Non-residential real estate shall continue to be implemented in accordance with the Provisional Regulations of People's Republic of China (PRC) Municipality on Property Tax and the Provisional Regulations of People's Republic of China (PRC) Municipality on Urban Land Use Tax.
Two, the State Council city real estate tax pilot specific measures, by the pilot area people's government to develop specific implementation details. The State Council and its relevant departments and people's governments in pilot areas should build scientific and feasible collection and management models and procedures.
Iii. the State Council shall, in accordance with the principle of being active and prudent, make overall consideration of deepening the pilot project, unifying legislation, promoting the stable and healthy development of the real estate market and other conditions to determine the pilot areas, and report them to the NPC Standing Committee for the record.
Four, the pilot period authorized by this decision is five years, counting from the date of promulgation of the pilot measures in the State Council.
In fact, the discussion on real estate tax has been going on in China since the beginning of the 20th century. Due to various reasons, it has not been officially launched, and only the pilot work of property tax has been carried out in Shanghai and Chongqing. However, there are obvious differences between property tax and real estate tax in essence. Property tax is a specific tax levied on the possession of houses. It is a kind of property tax levied on property owners according to the taxable residual value or rental income of houses. Real estate tax is a comprehensive concept, which is the general name of tax items levied on real estate, including circulation and retention links, including property tax, urban land use tax, land value-added tax, cultivated land occupation tax, personal income tax, deed tax, stamp duty and other tax items.
Judging from the contents of this meeting, the tax targets in the pilot areas are residential and non-residential real estate, and the taxpayers are landowners and house owners, which means that the real estate tax collected this time at least includes property tax and urban land use tax. As for whether to include deed tax and stamp duty, the tax base and tax rate still need to be determined by the governments of the State Council and the pilot areas when formulating the implementation rules. Judging from the objectives of this pilot decision, it is intended to actively and steadily promote the legislation and reform of real estate tax, guide housing consumption and intensive use of land resources, and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. But from a practical point of view, the impact of implementing real estate tax is comprehensive and long-term. Specifically:
First, it helps to regulate housing prices and promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market. Adhering to the guidance of "housing is not speculation", China has gradually established a long-term real estate mechanism with the linkage mechanism of people, housing, land and Qian Xin as the core, and real estate tax is an important part. Real estate tax can increase the cost of housing ownership by including the ownership link in the tax. On the one hand, it can curb the speculative demand of real estate and maintain the stability of housing prices. On the other hand, it can also revitalize the existing housing, let idle housing enter the sale and lease market, and increase the supply of housing in the market. However, it should be noted that from the practical experience of real estate tax in Shanghai and Chongqing, the impact of taxation on the real estate market is short-lived and limited, depending on the intensity of taxation. In the long run, tax mainly plays a regulatory role in the real estate market, and population, economic situation and financial policy are still the leading factors that determine the direction of the real estate market.
Second, it will help to open up new financial resources for local governments and increase fiscal revenue. Under the real estate financial supervision policies such as "three red lines" and centralized management of real estate loans, the ability of housing enterprises to take land is weakened, the enthusiasm for taking land is reduced, the land premium rate is reduced, and local land finance is facing greater contraction pressure. The collection scope of real estate tax includes circulation link and retention link, covering a wide range, and the real estate stock in China is huge. Once the real estate tax is levied, it will undoubtedly become an important and stable source of local income.
Third, it helps to adjust the secondary distribution of income and narrow the gap between the rich and the poor. According to the China Family Wealth Report (20 19) compiled by China Economic Trend Research Institute, the net assets of urban families in China account for 7 1.35% of the family's per capita wealth, and real estate is the main component of residents' wealth. With the rise of housing prices, the wealth gap between cities with different energy levels and between urban and rural areas is widening. Taxation is an effective channel to adjust income distribution and realize social equity. The article "Promoting Wealth with Wealth" published by Qiushi magazine pointed out that it is necessary to strengthen the regulation and control of high income, actively and steadily promote the legislation and reform of real estate tax, and do a good job in pilot work.
Fourth, it is conducive to deepening the reform of the fiscal and taxation system and an important measure to establish a modern financial system. The Central Committee's Proposal on Formulating the Fourteenth Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development and the Long-term Target in 2035 proposes that it is necessary to clarify the powers and expenditure responsibilities of the central and local governments, improve the financial system below the provincial level, and enhance the ability of grassroots public services. Improve the modern tax system, improve the local tax and direct tax system, optimize the tax structure, appropriately increase the proportion of direct tax, and deepen the reform of tax collection and management system. Real estate tax is an important part of the overall tax reform, which has the advantages of wide taxation scope and stable tax sources, and will become one of the main sources of income for local governments in the future, thus better ensuring the realization of local government functions.
Third, local policies: the regulatory efforts have further slowed down, and more cities have introduced fiscal and taxation policies to support the market.
1. Policy Tracking
(1) administrative restriction policy
(2) Land policy
(3) Provident fund policy
(4) Housing security policy
(5) Population and talent policy
(6) Market supervision policy
(7) Other policies
2. Policy summary
According to the monitoring statistics of the Evaluation and Research Center of China Housing Research Association, 43 local real estate control policies were issued in 2002 1 and1,which was basically the same as last month. Among them, easing policy 16, tightening policy 19 and neutral policy 8. Compared with last month, the proportion of tightening policies further declined, and the tightening trend of local real estate policies slowed down significantly.
Specifically, tightening supervision is mainly to strengthen market supervision. Typical representatives are: Tianjin defines the supervision measures for the pre-sale funds of new commercial housing and implements the whole process supervision; Wuhan, Dalian and other places have issued relevant notices on the supervision of housing leasing enterprises, covering enterprise filing, fund supervision, business norms and other aspects; Guangdong, Zhejiang and other places have issued house purchase risk warnings to remind buyers to beware of various transaction risks such as incomplete sales procedures of developers and unreasonable commercial housing prices; Shanxi, Anhui, Ganzhou and other places have successively issued three-year action implementation plans to rectify the order of the real estate market, regulating the real estate market from real estate development, real estate transactions, housing leasing and other aspects. In addition, Dongguan officially established a second-hand housing price reference price release mechanism. Xiaogan made it clear that the price adjustment of newly-built commercial housing exceeded 10% and needed to be re-filed. Policies such as two-year sales for registered residents in Quanzhou and five-year sales for non-registered residents in Quanzhou also contributed to the cooling of the local property market to varying degrees.
Loose control mainly focuses on relaxing administrative restrictions and population and talent policies. Among them, in terms of relaxing administrative restrictions, the typical representatives are: Harbin introduced the "16" new policy, which helped the local property market in many aspects, such as lowering the threshold for applying for pre-sale permits, appropriately relaxing the supervision of pre-sale funds for commercial housing, relaxing the age of second-hand housing provident fund loans, giving talents and subsidies for new citizens to buy houses; Yiwu lowered the pre-sale conditions and adjusted the "notarization lottery" policy. Commercial residential quarters with floor area ratio ≤ 1.2 and commercial residential buildings with building floors ≤3 shall not adopt the opening sales method of notarization and lottery sorting. Hunan issued a number of opinions on promoting the destocking of non-residential commercial housing, and provided support to units and individuals who newly purchased or leased (self-sustaining) non-residential commercial housing by means of house purchase subsidies, rent subsidies and reducing related transaction costs. In addition, in Dongguan, Huizhou, Jiangmen, Zhaoqing, Zhuhai, Jieyang and other places, personal income tax and land value-added tax are reduced for individuals to transfer second-hand houses, which is conducive to alleviating the sharp decline in local second-hand housing transactions and releasing positive signals. In terms of population and talent policy, the typical representatives are: Fenghua District of Ningbo introduced a subsidy method for high-level talents to live in housing, with a maximum subsidy of 6.5438+0.2 million; Henan has formulated the management measures for apartments for young talents, making it clear that the rent standard for apartments for young talents directly under the province is not higher than 70% of the rent in the housing market in the same region in principle, which is basically consistent with the rent standard for apartments for young talents in Zhengzhou City in the same region. Hunan has increased its support for housing provident fund loans for high-level talents, and the amount of personal housing provident fund loans for high-level talents can be relaxed to four times the maximum loan amount in the provincial center.
Four. Important matters of June resumption 5438+00
Verb (abbreviation of verb) Prospect of real estate policy
1. Central level
10On June 55438+05, the central bank held a press conference on financial statistics for the third quarter of 2002/kloc-0. Sun Guofeng, director of the Monetary Policy Department, said at the meeting that the central bank has made forward-looking policy arrangements, which has reduced the possible spillover effects of central bank policy adjustments in developed economies such as the Federal Reserve. At present, China's financial market is running smoothly. In the next stage, a prudent monetary policy will be flexible, accurate, reasonable and moderate, focusing on ourselves, taking the first step of stabilizing words, adjusting across cycles, and making overall consideration of policy convergence this year and next. The People's Bank of China will comprehensively use various monetary policy tools to maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity and enhance the stability of total credit growth. Continue to release the effect of LPR reform, stabilize the debt cost of banks, and promote the comprehensive financing cost of small and micro enterprises to decrease steadily. From the perspective of market liquidity, in June, there will be more than 2 trillion funds due in the open market, 5438+0 1 trillion, including 1 trillion MLF and 1 trillion reverse repurchase, which will interfere with the funds. In particular, the central bank carried out a large-scale reverse repurchase operation for several days at the end of 10, which means that the liquidity of10 will be challenged at the beginning of10. Judging from the central government's adherence to a prudent monetary policy orientation, it is expected that MLF and reverse repurchase will continue to be completed with equal or small RRR cuts, and the liquidity will be reasonable and sufficient. In addition, near the end of the year, fiscal expenditure will gradually increase, which will also alleviate the liquidity pressure to some extent. On the whole, the market liquidity in June 165438+ 10 still tends to be in a tight balance.
In terms of real estate, this month, the central level continued to voice the "stability" of the property market frequently. According to the feedback from the financial management department and several banks, the real estate financing of financial institutions has basically returned to normal in June 5438+ 10. In order to repair the previous excessive market reaction, the financing environment of the subsequent real estate market is still expected to be further improved. However, the general direction of the steady operation of real estate finance will not change, and the focus of financing will be more on "reasonable capital demand".
2. Local level
On June 5438+ 10, the orientation of maintaining stability in the property market became clearer, the central level continued to make frequent noises, and local tightening and regulation also slowed down further. From the policy point of view, the short-term real estate policy has basically bottomed out, and there will be marginal improvement in the follow-up. Including Changchun, Harbin, Dongguan, Huizhou, Hunan and other places, have recently introduced fiscal and taxation support policies to improve the local real estate market from both supply and demand. It is expected that more cities will follow up in the future, especially the third-and fourth-tier cities with high inventory pressure, and hot-spot first-and second-tier cities will remain cautious. It should be noted that, first, policies are often lagging behind, and the bottoming out of policies does not mean that the market bottoms out; Second, under the main tone of "housing and not speculating", the policy is loose and limited, and the boosting effect on the market will be limited. Therefore, the short-term real estate market may continue to decline, but under the influence of marginal improvement policies, the downward trend will gradually slow down.