A bank loan officer said: When a real estate enterprise goes bankrupt, buyers are also victims. According to laws and regulations, they are actual borrowers and should be collected by banks. However, compared with the collapse of a large number of housing enterprises, the increase of "foreclosed houses" should also attract everyone's attention.
In 2020, the number of auction houses increased by 143 times compared with 20 17, and many of them were caused by "supply failure". Many people can't imagine what is the concept of 143 times? The number of auction houses in 20 17 was 9,000, and it exceeded 500,000 in 20 19. In 2020, it will be1290,000, and it will be close to 2 million by the end of 2020.
As for why there are so many foreclosures, there are two main factors:
1, the decline in house prices around Beijing, the central and western regions, the northwest and the northeast is also increasing. If the market value of the house price is not enough for the loan, the down payment will be gone directly, so many people are unwilling to repay the loan.
2. In 2020, affected by special circumstances, the number of unemployed people increased, and everyone's income also declined. After the monthly salary of many families fell, the mortgage problem was very acute, and finally they had no choice but to cut off their supply.
Housing enterprises take land at high prices, and buyers buy houses at high prices. Once the house price falls by more than 20% and the income can't make up for the monthly payment, everyone will not continue to repay the loan. Banks can't do business at a loss. Once they can't repay, they will vigorously pursue debts.
A few years ago, the real estate industry was so beautiful, and now house prices in small and medium-sized cities are falling, and housing enterprises and property buyers are still asking for it. In fact, a similar thing happened seven years ago.
In 20 14, 47 enterprises announced their performance, and 1 1 enterprises suffered the first loss, up to 25%. Only 14 enterprises completed the sales business, and 60% of the housing enterprises failed to complete the target tasks, including Longhu, R&F and China Resources.
20 14, 1 1, among 70 large and medium-sized cities, 67 cities fell month on month and 68 cities fell year on year; Second-hand houses in 58 cities fell month-on-month, and 67 cities fell year-on-year.
At that time, the sales area also decreased from 654.38+03 billion to 654.38+02 billion, and the inventory area increased from 400 million to 620 million. In many places, the de-capacity cycle is extended to more than 654.38+05 months, or even as high as 30 months.
It can be said that the scene of 20 14 is very similar to today's scene. After that, the national destocking stage began, and the shed reform was introduced on 20 16. At the end of 20 17, the inventory fell to the level of March 20 12, and the house price also rose slowly.
So, will the property market repeat what happened seven years ago?
The answer is no, now the central bank has announced "loan restriction" and local governments have also introduced regulatory policies. With the arrival of the "loan restriction order", the funds entering the real estate industry have decreased, and mortgage loans in some cities have shrunk by 60% in the first quarter.
Today's real estate industry is in recession. However, the central bank and local banks did not "save the market". On the contrary, they strengthened regulation, put heavy pressure on hot cities and avoided rising house prices. It can be seen that it is impossible for the property market to reproduce the destocking after 20 14, and the tide of "de-financialization" will be concentrated.