Bank mortgage stress test The mortgage loan stress test is a mortgage loan stress test conducted by commercial banks in response to the current central regulatory policies (suppression). When real estate prices fall, the extent of the decline in mortgage business that commercial banks can afford. Due to the sharp decline in housing prices, banks' bad debts are bound to increase, which will bring huge losses to the banks and may even lead to bankruptcy.
On April 19, 2011, at the 2011 economic and fiscal situation briefing meeting of the People's Bank of China, the People's Bank of China announced that it would conduct a new round of stress testing for housing loans.
Mortgage loan stress test: Banks can still withstand housing prices falling by 40%.
The trial links home mortgages with loans from local financial platforms.
ICBC and China Construction Bank's tolerance for housing prices is about 35%, and Bank of Communications's tolerance is 30%; Minsheng's tolerance reaches 40% among joint-stock banks, while China Merchants Bank's tolerance reaches 37%.
Under the new real estate regulatory policy signal, the latest commercial bank loan stress test seems to be of great significance. The loan stress test that started in mid-April is now coming to an end, and many commercial banks can tolerate a price decline of 30%-40%.
Minsheng Bank has the strongest tolerance for housing loans. Its president, Hong Qi, has publicly stated that a 40% drop in housing prices will not cause damage to its asset quality. As a bank with a large proportion of personal loan business, China Merchants Bank will more carefully consider possible policy risks such as real estate taxes when conducting mortgage stress tests. If calculated based on an annual loan ratio of 1%, if three houses exceed 30% of the housing stock, there will be an impact of approximately 0.8 percentage points.
Figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics show that prices are still rising in April, but "the new policy will make prices determined by quantity." Zhang Yue, a real estate market analyst at Beijing Lianjia, said: "Just Take Beijing's second-hand houses as an example. The transaction volume has dropped by 80%, and the listing price has dropped by 10%. "The decline in the listing price of second-hand houses is a fatal sign. This reversal in the real estate market caused by changes in market psychological expectations is a sign." the most direct impact.
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