In 20 10, in order to curb the excessive rise of housing prices, the government carried out what was called "the most severe regulation in history" on the real estate market. Policies are frequently introduced, lasting for a long time, and the regulation is unprecedented. The price and transaction volume of the real estate market fluctuate greatly.
Everyone in the market has experienced a special year. Some people are proud of the spring breeze, some people are tired of coping, and some people have been struggling. In any case, everyone's wish is the same. I hope that house prices can be stable, more people can afford to buy houses, and the market can develop healthily for a long time.
1. Buyer: It's very tangled.
I hope the market will be stable and I won't toss about buying a house.
Near the end of the year, Zhang Hui finally bought a house. "It's not necessarily the best choice, but I don't want to choose any more. I'm too tired."
Zhang Hui, 3 1 year-old, is a civil servant in a ministry. A few years ago, she bought a small house in Cheng Nan, but for work reasons, she always wanted to buy another second-hand house near the East Fourth Ring Road to facilitate her commute. Last February, 65438+, the state began to regulate the real estate market. Zhang Hui thinks that house prices should be stable and wants to "settle down" and buy a house. Unexpectedly, after the Spring Festival this year, house prices rose "like crazy". Zhang Hui has seen several houses. In the 1990s, the house price was generally above 25,000 yuan/square meter, and the apartment type was not ideal, so no decision was made.
But during that time, even such a house was often taken away or even increased in price in three or four days when Zhang Hui "thought about it". Because the market is too hot, Zhang Hui didn't make a decision after reading several sets. Even the second-hand housing agents are "hated".
"At that time, I planned to grab a set quickly, otherwise house prices will continue to rise." Just when Zhang Hui had this idea, on April 17, the state issued a strict control policy called "National Ten Articles" to curb the excessive rise in housing prices. With the implementation of the policy, the market suddenly reversed, the transaction volume dropped sharply, and buyers began to wait and see again. The momentum of rising house prices has also been temporarily curbed.
The policy was strict, and Zhang Hui's mood calmed down. On the other hand, new policies such as increasing the down payment ratio of second-home loans and loan interest rates have made Zhang Hui's purchase cost rise a lot, making it more difficult to buy a house, so he has to continue to wait and see.
Soon, Beijing introduced a regulation policy including that a family can only buy one suite, which made Zhang Hui more cautious when buying a house. "You must try to choose a satisfactory house, or you will have no chance to regret it. “
In the past few months, the real estate market has also experienced a rare stability in recent years. The transaction volume is low, the price is basically stable, and the pricing of some new projects is relatively reasonable. In some areas such as Tongzhou, Beijing, where house prices rose "super fast" before, house prices fell to a certain extent. Everything seems to be developing in the direction of adjusting expectations.
However, since mid-August, due to the fact that house prices have not dropped significantly and the mentality of "fighting inflation", the market has gradually become lively, and even the situation of rising volume and price has reappeared. Strict regulation is in danger of failure, and the property market may be "rising more and more".
Zhang Hui's viewing process was forced to speed up again. In his favorite location, housing prices have been very strong, and there is almost no bargaining space for second-hand houses. Just as Zhang Hui was wandering around, on September 29th, the state issued a policy again, which refined the previous policy of "Ten Articles of the State" and made it more specific and strict, and called it "Five Articles of the New State". On June 5438+ 10, the property market was deserted again, and there was no "Silver Ten" after "Jin Jiu".
But this time, Zhang Hui didn't slow down. "The harsh policy in April was digested by the market in less than half a year. I am afraid that this policy will expire in less than half a year, so it is more reassuring to buy it early. " After nearly a year's experience in the property market, Zhang Hui also has his own experience in the property market. "The later, the higher the house price and the stricter the regulation, the harder it is for me to buy a house."
Similar to Zhang Hui's expectation, from mid-June 165438+ 10, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing's property market has been enlarged again and returned to a higher level. With the support of both parents, Zhang Hui bought an old house with a provident fund loan. The house in the 1990s was more than 70 square meters, 1.7 million yuan, which was not much different from the house he saw at the beginning of the year.
Zhang Hui, who bought a house, began to pay attention to the changes of online second-hand housing transaction data in Beijing real estate transaction management every day. He began to worry that house prices would really fall sharply under the control, he would buy at the top of a price band, and he would become the "takeover man" of investors.
"Before buying a house, I was worried that house prices would rise sharply and I could not afford it more and more. After buying it, I am worried that house prices will plummet, which will have a greater impact, and so much money will impact Shui Piao. " Zhang Hui said, "I hope that the real estate market will develop steadily as the government said in the future. In this way, at least ordinary people don't have to worry about buying a house like me. "
2. Developer: It's hard.
Follow market pricing and increase sales promotion.
The threshold of development projects has been raised, land hoarding has been cracked down, and the supervision of pre-sale funds and financing channels have been almost completely cut off ... Under the strictest regulation, the life of developers should be the most difficult. However, Vanke 1 1 month realized the "daily volume" sales of 1000 billion yuan. It not only achieved the company's goal four years ahead of schedule, but has even become a leading residential development enterprise in the world.
Compared with the beginning of the year, Yu Liang, president of Vanke, looks much thinner. It is not because the company is too busy to lose weight, but because he actively exercises to lose weight himself. In the year when the government frequently regulated the property market, and in the year when enterprises achieved the best sales performance, Yu Liang had more time of his own.
Does Vanke's record of 100 billion sales against the market mean that macro-control has failed? In fact, affected by regulation, the capital chain of the whole real estate industry is getting more and more tense, and many enterprises are not having a good time. "The outstanding performance of leading enterprises does not represent the whole industry." Yu Liang believes that it is in macro-control that Vanke has chosen the right strategy to achieve good sales performance and make itself more relaxed.
What is the property market regulation? It is the excessive rise in housing prices, the speculative real estate speculation behind the rise in housing prices, the profiteering of developers hoarding land, and the high-priced houses and luxury houses that do not meet the needs of ordinary people. Vanke's strategy avoids the focus of these property market regulation.
Yu Liang introduced that, first of all, Vanke has always attached importance to the demand of buyers for first-time home purchase and first-time improvement, and insisted on making ordinary houses. And regulation is precisely to protect this part of demand. At present, 60% of Vanke's products are small-sized houses below 90 square meters, which are less affected by macro-control. Secondly, Vanke has been adapting to the market situation, reasonable pricing, rapid sales and rapid turnover, never ignoring the quotation, and demanding that the sales rate of new projects be no less than 60% in the current month. In the regulation and overweight, when the sales of some projects are sluggish, the promotion efforts are increased.
Under the guidance of this strategy, Vanke not only achieved huge sales, but also increased its market share in the country from 3.9% before regulation to 5.7%. "Vanke is definitely not the most profitable real estate enterprise, but adhering to this strategy can effectively cope with the industry fluctuations brought about by regulation and control, and it is also an act that conforms to the market situation." Yu Liang said, "We not only pay attention to profit, but also pay attention to the quality of growth, whether customers are satisfied, the quality and cost performance of the house, and whether the return to shareholders and employees is greater."
However, real estate regulation has no impact on Vanke. The most direct impact is that money is tight. Since the second half of this year, Vanke has cooperated with other enterprises to acquire land and develop projects in various places, and this kind of cooperation will be more and more next year.
For the market situation next year, Yu Liang's judgment is that the regulation will continue and the market fluctuation will continue. "We will not make any plans for next year's sales and profits, and will continue to adhere to the strategy that has proved to be successful this year, adapt to changes in policies and markets, and actively respond." Yu Liang said, "We welcome supervision. Supervision is for the health and stability of the market. Only when the market is stable can enterprises develop sustainably and become century-old enterprises. "
3. Intermediary: Hope for stability
Changes in demand structure have greatly reduced investment.
With the development of the real estate market, the transaction volume of second-hand houses in first-tier cities such as Beijing and Shanghai has exceeded that of first-hand houses, and the transaction of stock houses has gradually become the main content of real estate transactions. The role of real estate agents in promoting second-hand housing transactions is becoming more and more important. Under the control of real estate, their lives have also changed.
Zhang Dongsheng, a 25-year-old, worked as an ordinary intermediary salesman for three years. This year, she was promoted to the manager of Lidu Waterfront Store, a chain real estate. In his first year in office, he encountered the most severe regulation of the property market.
"The biggest feeling this year is that you are busy when you are busy and idle when you are idle." Looking back on 20 10, Zhang Dongsheng said, "I have been constantly training, learning new policies, and constantly explaining policies to customers."
Zhang Dongsheng recalled that after the Spring Festival this year and before mid-April, the market was unprecedentedly hot, and more than 30 people in the store were as busy as a bee. "customers are rushing to buy a house, and the owners have to raise prices almost once a week. At that time, we also felt that house prices had gone too crazy and the bubble was too big. "
After the introduction of "National Ten Articles" in mid-April, the market suddenly cooled down. In April and May, there were almost no transactions in stores in Zhang Dongsheng, and house prices in this area also fell.
No one looked at the house and there was no deal. Facing the sudden cold, Zhang Dongsheng and his colleagues were a little at a loss. When I am really idle and bored, I have to play table tennis in front of the store to kill time. "At that time, there was a lot of pressure, mainly because I didn't expect the policy to have such a big impact and the market changed so quickly. We don't know what direction the next step will be. " Zhang Dongsheng said that even several employees left their jobs.
However, since the end of June, Zhang Dongsheng felt that more and more people were looking at the house because the house price did not drop significantly, and then the transaction volume began to rise in July. Up to now, the average monthly increase is about 20%, and house prices are slowly rebounding.
"Although the policy seems to have been digested, regulation still has certain effects." Zhang Dongsheng said that under the influence of supervision, the annual turnover of Lidu Waterfront Store this year is only about 60% of last year's. The demand structure has changed, and the number of investors has been greatly reduced. The main transaction force is small and medium-sized units, and the demand for house purchase is mainly self-occupation. In addition, "buyers and sellers are more calm than in the first half of the year."
Zhang Dongsheng's working condition has gradually stabilized. In the last two or three months, there have been steady transactions in the store every month. "This is also our preferred state." Zhang Dongsheng said that the real estate market should be cooled by regulation. When the bubble is big, although it is better for intermediaries to earn money for many days, it is unhealthy and cannot last forever. "It is better to have a long stream of water."
Zhang Dongsheng believes that the state will continue to regulate and control next year, but house prices are unlikely to fall sharply, and the ideal state should be a steady and small increase. "I still hope that the regulation will continue, and the house price and transaction volume will be stable, so that we can have room for development." Young Zhang Dongsheng has plans to buy a house himself. "The market is stable. Only by working hard and saving money can I afford a house and my future life will be more hopeful. "